| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | 6–2 |
| 3 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 3–5 |
| 5 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 0–5 |
| 7 | |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 2 | 6–0 |
| 8 | |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 2 | 4–2 |
| 9 |  |
Grafton High School | Clippers | 4–2 |
| 10 | |
Christchurch School | Seahorses 3 | 4–2 |
| 11 |  |
The Hague School | Tritons | 2–4 |
| 12 |  |
Poquoson High School | Islanders | 1–5 |
| 13 |  |
Kecoughtan High School | Warriors | 0–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 11,619 team race matches sailed before 2024-09-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 18 of 21 matches (86%) with a log-loss of 0.390 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.01 ± 0.52: a typical event, more orderly than 41% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks 1 | 1.82 | 3.80 | 1–4 | 0.3 | +1.98 | 0.8 | 30% |
| 2 | Norfolk Academy Bulldogs 1 | 6.39 | 7.90 | 6–2 | 4.4 | +1.52 | 1.3 | 18% |
| 1 | Christchurch School Seahorses 1 | 8.18 | 8.42 | 7–1 | 6.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 3 | Christchurch School Seahorses 2 | 6.22 | 5.89 | 4–4 | 4.4 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 4 | Hampton Roads Academy Navigators | 6.19 | 5.15 | 3–5 | 4.0 | −1.04 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 6 | Maury High School Commodores | 3.33 | 0.33 | 0–5 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.23 | 3.21 | 1–4 | 0.3 | +1.98 | 0.8 | 30% |
| Finian Bohan | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.37 | 2.35 | 1–4 | 0.3 | +1.98 | 0.8 | 30% |
| Anna Lenox | Norfolk Collegiate School | 0.37 | 2.35 | 1–4 | 0.3 | +1.98 | 0.8 | 30% |
| Madeline Janzen | Christchurch School | 2.30 | 2.55 | 7–1 | 6.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Wylder Smith | Christchurch School | 2.62 | 2.86 | 7–1 | 6.8 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 67% |
| Gp Keating | Christchurch School | 1.40 | 1.07 | 4–4 | 4.4 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Wyatt Lipp | Christchurch School | 2.08 | 1.75 | 4–4 | 4.4 | −0.33 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Charlie Moore | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.25 | 0.86 | 2–3 | 2.3 | −0.39 | 0.1 | 79% |
| Will Chapman | Hampton Roads Academy | 1.19 | -1.34 | 1–2 | 1.8 | −2.53 | 1.0 | 99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 2 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Oaks 1 | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 2-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Navigators | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
| 22 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Commodores | 1-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Oaks 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Islanders | 2-3-6 |
| 7 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Seahorses 3 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 1-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Tritons | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Islanders | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Clippers | 3-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Tritons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Clippers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 3-4-6 |
| 24 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Clippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-4-6 |
| 28 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 30 | |
Bulldogs 2 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahorses 3 | 4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS |
| 31 | |
Clippers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Warriors | 3-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Seahorses 3 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Islanders | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Clippers | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs 2 | 2-4-6 |
| 35 | |
Oaks 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Islanders | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Warriors | 2-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 38 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Seahorses 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Seahorses 2 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Navigators | 2-3-6 |
| 42 | |
Bulldogs 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahorses 1 | 2-4-5 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 1 | Bo Angus '25 Madeline Janzen '25 Wylder Smith '27 |
Brooke Mertz '26 Bennett Moss '26 Malia Deane '25 |
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs 1 | Eliana Mopper '26 Jack Poynter '25 James Allgeier '27 |
Anna Iacobucci '25 Sabrina Casagrande '25 Owen Peluso '26 Will Poynter '27 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses 2 | Elliott Lipp '26 Gp Keating '27 Wyatt Lipp '28 |
Suzie Nguyen '25 Millicent Branflick '26 Jackson Mcgrady '26 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Charlie Moore '27 Leila Pfrang '25 Parker Moore '25 Will Chapman '28 |
Nicholas Bielewicz '26 Daphne Ambrosino '27 Josie Brindley '26 Sam Fox-Goens '28 Jack Duggan '28 Patrick Bielewicz '28 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks 1 | Alex Salzberg '25 Anna Lenox '28 Finian Bohan '27 |
Michael Wattenbarger '27 Mollie Armentrout '28 Emma Horton '25 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores | Emily Priest '25 Lillian Rippel '25 Tucker Mcgrady '26 |
Lenox Wakefield '27 Colin Moorhouse '27 Annika Fox '27 Madeline Ballard '25 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
