| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | 5–0 |
| 2 |  |
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | 4–1 |
| 3 |  |
Christchurch School | Seahorses | 3–2 |
| 4 |  |
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | 2–3 |
| 5 |  |
The Hague School | Tritons | 1–4 |
| 6 |  |
Maury High School | Commodores | 0–5 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 10,537 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 15 of 15 matches (100%) with a log-loss of 0.179 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.61 ± 0.63: a typical event, more orderly than 87% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Norfolk Academy | 7.51 | 10.51 | 5–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 41% |
| 5 | The Hague School | 1.30 | 2.53 | 1–4 | 0.6 | +1.23 | 0.3 | 56% |
| 3 | Christchurch School | 5.48 | 5.62 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2 | Hampton Roads Academy | 7.08 | 7.05 | 4–1 | 4.0 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 4 | Norfolk Collegiate School | 4.93 | 3.56 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −1.37 | 0.4 | 95% |
| 6 | Maury High School | 1.25 | -1.75 | 0–5 | 0.6 | ≤−3.00 | 1.0 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Wheary | Norfolk Academy | 1.84 | 4.84 | 5–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.1 | 41% |
| Paul Rodrigues Jr | Christchurch School | 2.02 | 2.16 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Wylder Smith | Christchurch School | 2.46 | 2.60 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 71% |
| William Angus | Christchurch School | 0.69 | 0.83 | 3–2 | 2.9 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Alex Salzberg | Norfolk Collegiate School | 1.19 | -0.18 | 2–3 | 2.6 | −1.37 | 0.4 | 95% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Oaks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Navigators | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Tritons | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Navigators | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Seahorses | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Oaks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Tritons | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahorses | 3-4-5 |
| 14 | |
Navigators | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Oaks | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Tritons | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Commodores | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Norfolk Academy | Bulldogs | Hunter Wheary '24 James Allgeier '27 Sean Trudell '24 |
Amanda Wong '25 Marin Soderberg '24 Jack Poynter '25 |
|
Hampton Roads Academy | Navigators | Leila Pfrang '25 Parker Moore '25 Pierce Brindley '24 |
Josie Brindley '26 Daphne Ambrosino '27 Charlie Moore '27 |
|
Christchurch School | Seahorses | Paul Rodrigues Jr '24 William Angus '25 Wylder Smith '27 |
Suzie Nguyen '25 Bennet Moss '26 Duncan Hardy '27 |
|
Norfolk Collegiate School | Oaks | Alex Salzberg '25 Kiana Beachy '24 Maddie Murphy '25 |
Finian Bohan '27 Michael Wattenbarger '27 Tucker Peltier '26 Emma Horton '25 |
|
The Hague School | Tritons | Justina Reynolds '24 Nicholas Davis '24 Unreported Sailor '20 |
Lenox Wakefield '27 Joshua Ortiz '27 Unreported Sailor '15 |
|
Maury High School | Commodores | Emily Priest '25 Gabby Cloe '24 Lillian Rippel '25 |
Caspian Collett '25 Annika Fox '27 Rylie Bowen '27 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
