2023 Azalea Bowl Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1 30 18 48
2 Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 27 22 49
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 38 35 73
4 VIMSIA VIMSIA Varsity 47 47 94
5 Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Raptors A 57 62 119
6 Wando High School Wando High School Warriors 75 49 124
7 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2 77 65 142
8 Epiphany School of Global Studies Epiphany School of Global Studies New Bern, NC 82 75 157
9 Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 80 97 177
10 Enloe High School Enloe High School Varsity 89 89 178
11 Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Phoenix 87 107 194
12 Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds 93 117 210
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 2 4 2 5 4 4 2 1 2 1 27 James Pine '26
Anthony Lattanzio '23
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 8 1 7 30 Tavia Smith '23
Andrew Simpson '23
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 1 1 2 3 2 5 3 7 RAF 38 Owen Grainger '24
Nathaniel Bonham '24
VIMSIA VIMSIA Varsity 9 7 4 3 2 3 8 5 4 2 47 Jackson Auchincloss '24
Amelie Zucker '24
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Raptors A 3 2 5 10 12 8 6 4 3 4 57 Mason Fisher '26
Caroline Uram '24
Wando High School Wando High School Warriors 6 6 10 12 11 11 4 6 6 3 75 Madeleine Harris '25
Lee Wehr '25
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2 8 12 7 7 7 6 3 OCS 5 9 77 Emmy Teer '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Petra Humphrey '25 [3-4, 7-8]
George Adams '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 7 9 8 11 6 7 9 7 10 6 80 Ray Mcdonald '25
Max Hammer '27
Epiphany School of Global Studies Epiphany School of Global Studies New Bern, NC 10 11 12 9 5 5 7 2 11 10 82 Graham Foster '26 [1-10]
Dylan Barbour '27 [1-6]
Chase Fidgeon '27 [7-10]
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Phoenix 5 5 11 8 8 9 10 11 12 8 87 Luca Williamson '24
Wade Finger '30
Enloe High School Enloe High School Varsity 11 8 6 4 9 10 12 10 8 11 89 Owen O'Rourke '24
Henry Roney '24
Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds 12 10 9 6 10 12 11 9 9 5 93 John Spinosa '25
Lilly Copplestone '24
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1 2 1 3 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 18 Ben Usher '23 [1-10]
Jane Wright '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sam Carson '24 [3-4, 7-8]
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School Bengals 1 2 2 4 2 5 2 2 1 1 22 Nathan Pine '26
Addy Fisher '23
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 4 1 1 3 7 1 3 6 4 35 Elliott Lipp '26
Bennett Moss '26
VIMSIA VIMSIA Varsity 3 3 7 7 8 3 5 5 3 3 47 Finn Bell '26
Alex Cai '25
Wando High School Wando High School Warriors 4 5 4 5 4 6 6 4 4 7 49 Perrin Mueller '26
Lizzie Meden '26
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Raptors A 6 10 6 3 5 4 8 6 8 6 62 William Mccarty '26 [1-10]
Savannah Bryan '28 [1-8]
Lawton Harper '24 [9-10]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2 7 7 5 6 6 2 7 7 9 9 65 Caroline Smith '25
Elizabeth Lennert '25
Epiphany School of Global Studies Epiphany School of Global Studies New Bern, NC 11 6 8 8 9 8 4 8 5 8 75 Chase Fidgeon '27 [1-6]
Dylan Barbour '27 [7-10]
Emma French '26 [1-6]
Enloe High School Enloe High School Varsity 9 8 9 9 7 10 11 11 10 5 89 Liam Holder '24
Finley Commons '24
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy CFA Varsity 8 11 11 11 10 9 10 9 7 11 97 Henry Fanning '27
Macy Stengle '25
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Phoenix 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 10 12 12 107 Ryden Jarvis '27
Sam Warner '27
Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds DNF DNF 12 DNS 12 BKD 9 BKD 11 10 117 Molly Lovvorn '24
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.130+0.13
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2023 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Academic Magnet High SchoolAcademic Magnet High School Raptors A1133557799
Cape Fear AcademyCape Fear Academy CFA Varsity224466881010
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses335577991111
Enloe High SchoolEnloe High School Varsity44668810101212
Epiphany School of Global StudiesEpiphany School of Global Studies New Bern, NC557799111111
Girls Leadership Academy of WilmingtonGirls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Phoenix66881010121222
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1779911111133
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 288101012122244
Lucy Beckham High SchoolLucy Beckham High School Bengals991111113355
VIMSIAVIMSIA Varsity111111335577
Reynolds High School (LTYC)Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds10101212224466
Wando High SchoolWando High School Warriors121222446688

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Academic Magnet High SchoolAcademic Magnet High School Raptors A224466881010
Cape Fear AcademyCape Fear Academy CFA Varsity335577991111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses44668810101212
Enloe High SchoolEnloe High School Varsity557799111111
Epiphany School of Global StudiesEpiphany School of Global Studies New Bern, NC66881010121222
Girls Leadership Academy of WilmingtonGirls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Phoenix779911111133
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 188101012122244
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2991111113355
Lucy Beckham High SchoolLucy Beckham High School Bengals10101212224466
VIMSIAVIMSIA Varsity121222446688
Reynolds High School (LTYC)Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds111111335577
Wando High SchoolWando High School Warriors1133557799
School / Team SkipperCrew
Academic Magnet High School Academic Magnet High School Mason Fisher '26 Caroline Uram '24
Raptors A William Mccarty '26 [1-10] Savannah Bryan '28 [1-8]
Lawton Harper '24 [9-10]
Cape Fear Academy Cape Fear Academy Ray Mcdonald '25 Max Hammer '27
CFA Varsity Henry Fanning '27 Macy Stengle '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Owen Grainger '24 Nathaniel Bonham '24
Seahorses Elliott Lipp '26 Bennett Moss '26
Enloe High School Enloe High School Owen O'Rourke '24 Henry Roney '24
Varsity Liam Holder '24 Finley Commons '24
Epiphany School of Global Studies Epiphany School of Global Studies Graham Foster '26 [1-10] Dylan Barbour '27 [1-6]
Chase Fidgeon '27 [7-10]
New Bern, NC Chase Fidgeon '27 [1-6]
Dylan Barbour '27 [7-10]
Emma French '26 [1-6]
Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Girls Leadership Academy of Wilmington Luca Williamson '24 Wade Finger '30
Phoenix Ryden Jarvis '27 Sam Warner '27
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Tavia Smith '23 Andrew Simpson '23
Vikings Varsity 1 Ben Usher '23 [1-10] Jane Wright '24 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sam Carson '24 [3-4, 7-8]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Emmy Teer '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Petra Humphrey '25 [3-4, 7-8]
George Adams '25 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Vikings Varsity 2 Caroline Smith '25 Elizabeth Lennert '25
Lucy Beckham High School Lucy Beckham High School James Pine '26 Anthony Lattanzio '23
Bengals Nathan Pine '26 Addy Fisher '23
Reynolds High School (LTYC) Reynolds High School (LTYC) John Spinosa '25 Lilly Copplestone '24
Reynolds Molly Lovvorn '24
VIMSIA VIMSIA Jackson Auchincloss '24 Amelie Zucker '24
Varsity Finn Bell '26 Alex Cai '25
Wando High School Wando High School Madeleine Harris '25 Lee Wehr '25
Warriors Perrin Mueller '26 Lizzie Meden '26

Conditions — 04/15/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 67%  ·  Pressure 1020.3 hPa

Temperature

52°F
↑ 58°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 48°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.2 kn
avg  ·  max 4.5 kn
Gusts to 10.9 kn
From WSW (239°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine6.1 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1020.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 6 kn · SW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Cape Fear Academy/Eugene Ashley/Girls Leadership Aca/John T. Hoggard/New Hanover/Topsail: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.17 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cape Fear Academy/Eugene Ashley/Girls Leadership Aca/John T. Hoggard/New Hanover/Topsail by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Cape Fear Academy/Eugene Ashley/Girls Leadership Aca/John T. Hoggard/New Hanover/Topsail, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →