VISA Christchurch Spring Break Championship

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 9 9
2 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 10 10
3 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 12 12
4 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 16 16
5 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 18 18
6 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 22 22
7 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 29 29
8 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 8 30 30
9 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 10 35 35
10 Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 9 39 39
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 1 6 1 1 1 9 Bo Angus '25
Brooke Mertz '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 3 1 3 3 3 10 Sam De Los Reyes '26
Cherry Phan '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 2 2 4 4 2 12 Wylder Smith '27
Malia Deane '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 4 4 2 6 4 16 Madeline Janzen '25
Bennett Moss '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 6 3 5 5 5 18 Aaron Griffith '27
Millicent Branflick '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 5 7 7 2 6 22 Elliott Lipp '26
Chloe Shurr '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 7 9 6 7 7 29 Wyatt Lipp '28
Adelaide Matzky '25
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 8 5 8 9 8 30 Gp Keating '27
Duncan Hardy '27
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 10 8 10 8 9 35 Jackson Mcgrady '26
Anson Huang '26
Christchurch School Christchurch School Seahorses 9 10 9 10 10 39 Pierson Teer '27
Olivia Wolff '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 11111
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 1010101010
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 22222
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 33333
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 44444
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 55555
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 66666
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 77777
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 88888
Christchurch SchoolChristchurch School Seahorses 99999

Conditions — 03/14/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 80%  ·  Pressure 1020.5 hPa

Temperature

49°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 42°F
Feels like 44°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 6.9 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From ENE (77°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine5.2 hrs Humidity80% Pressure1020.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 4 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Christchurch School: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.18)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.27)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.18 means a rating gap counts about 15% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christchurch School by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Christchurch School).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →