Immaculata La Salle High School '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.39 (fleet 3.94) | 20 of 231 | −0.05 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 16–35 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 12–12 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 2–4 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 2–19 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (51 matches) the record is 16–35 against 23.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−7.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | SAISA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.40 | 2.30 | 12–12 | 12.4 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 65% |
| 2024-04-13 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.17 | 0.09 | 2–4 | 3.8 | −2.08 | 2.0 | 99% |
| 2023-04-15 | SAISA Baker Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.08 | 0.08 | 2–19 | 6.9 | −2.00 | 4.7 | >99% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Keith Grupenhoff |  University of Rhode Island |
'29 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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