SAISA Mallory Qualifier

HostSt. Petersburg
Date05/03/2025
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Antilles School	Hurricanes	29	70	99
2	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	65	60	125
3	Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	72	90	162
4	Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	120	47	167
5	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	94	79	173
6	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	101	72	173
7	MAST Academy	Makos	86	90	176
8	St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	72	137	209
9	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	123	87	210
10	Pine Crest School	Panthers	91	126	217
11	Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	123	134	257
12	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	176	157	333
13	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	190	174	364
14	Wando High School	Warriors	187	179	366
15	New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	183	200	383
16	Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	192	198	390

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Antilles School	Hurricanes	7	2	2	1	1	1	2	1	4	2	1	2	1	2	29	Tanner Krygsveld '25 [1-14] Mia Ronen '25 [1-2] Rena Yu '27 [3-14]
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	6	7	1	11	10	2	8	3	3	5	2	1	2	4	65	Griggs Diemar '25 [1-14] Elisa De Becker '28 [1-8] Amelia Lazarus '25 [9-14]
Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	1	3	4	13	7	3	1	12	7	4	9	4	3	1	72	James Pine '26 Charlotte Casey '25
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	4	4	8	2	4	8	4	5	2	1	8	5	5	12	72	John Hartney '28 Adam Mendelblatt '26
MAST Academy	Makos	11	11	6	8	3	5	6	4	1	3	10	3	7	8	86	Oliver Holt '26 [1-2] Davide Bazzoni '26 [3-14] Maryna Downey '27 [1-2] Theodore Mccormick '26 [3-14]
Pine Crest School	Panthers	2	6	11	3	8	4	13	8	8	9	3	7	6	3	91	Connor Mertz '25 Aurora Christiansen '26
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	3	1	5	4	2	9	5	11	11	10	6	8	10	9	94	Cody Roe '25 [1-14] Ana Lynch Smith '25 [1-8] Isabel Viega '28 [9-14]
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	13	5	3	12	5	6	3	2	9	7	4	11	11	10	101	Connor Karr '28 Danika Torres '27
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	5	10	13	5	14	10	10	7	6	6	5	15	9	5	120	David Mateo Coates '27 [1-6] Beck Brill '27 [7-10, 13-14] Isabella Henrich '26 [11-12] Soleil Aurignac '25 [1-6] Nathalie Caudron '25 [7-14]
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	8	8	7	6	13	11	7	6	14	8	12	9	8	6	123	Audrey Russler '26 Paulina Freyre '25
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	9	12	10	7	6	7	9	9	5	12	14	12	4	7	123	Andrew Lamm '26 [1-14] Mia Lago '26 [1-6, 9-10, 13-14] Noah Rabiei '25 [7-8, 11-12]
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	10	14	16	14	15	12	15	10	16	11	7	10	13	13	176	Finn Bell '26 George Adams '25
New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	12	16	15	16	12	16	12	15	13	13	11	6	12	14	183	Graham Foster '26 Henry Foster '28
Wando High School	Warriors	16	9	12	9	9	15	14	14	15	16	13	14	15	16	187	Madeleine Harris '25 [1-14] Stella Fletcher '27 [1-2, 7-8] Matthew Fisher '27 [3-6, 9-14]
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	15	13	9	10	16	14	11	13	12	14	16	16	16	15	190	Jackson Fisher '26 [1-14] Georgia Montgomery '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12] Beckett Holley '25 [3-4, 7-8, 13-14]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	14	15	14	15	11	13	16	16	10	15	15	13	14	11	192	Mason Fisher '26 Elizabeth Hample '25

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT	Sailors
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	1	2	2	7	10	3	2	2	3	2	5	4	2	2	47	Keith Grupenhoff '25 [1-14] Nathalie Caudron '25 [1-4] Alejandro Escudero '27 [5-14]
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	3	1	1	5	1	4	4	11	2	5	8	3	5	7	60	Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25 [1-12] Ava Mc Aliley '26 [13-14] Sofia Rhone '26 [1-12] Leyla Amjad '26 [13-14]
Antilles School	Hurricanes	4	3	5	3	14	1	1	1	8	7	4	7	3	9	70	Cobia Fagan '28 [1-10] Robert Richards '25 [11-14] Halina Diehl '26 [1-10]
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	6	6	4	4	2	2	7	6	1	3	2	11	13	5	72	Afonso Cruz '26 [1-12] Alfonso Lanseros '27 [13-14] Sebastian Taylor '28 [1-12]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	5	10	3	2	11	13	5	8	9	6	1	1	1	4	79	Kj Hill '25 [1-6, 9-14] Cole Fanchi '26 [7-8] Isabel Viega '28 [1-6] Ana Lynch Smith '25 [7-14]
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	RDG	5	9	8	4	6	6	5	10	1	3	9	7	8	87	Elizabeth Xydas '28 Alexandra Kolaya '27
MAST Academy	Makos	2	7	6	1	8	7	DSQ	3	4	8	10	5	6	6	90	Carlos Beckmann '25 [1-2, 7-10, 13-14] Minx Anthony '26 [3-6, 11-12] Julia Gil '26 [1-2, 7-10, 13-14] Andrea Bolz '27 [3-6, 11-12]
Lucy Beckham High School	Bengals	11	13	13	6	3	5	8	9	5	4	6	2	4	1	90	Nathan Pine '26 [1-14] Anna Connolly '26 [1-2, 5-10] Gresham Kinard '26 [3-4, 11-14]
Pine Crest School	Panthers	7	11	7	9	7	11	3	4	11	13	7	13	12	11	126	Miles Julien '27 [1-12] Jake Taubman '25 [13-14] Jake Taubman '25 [1-12] Preston Rogers '27 [13-14]
Oxbridge Academy	ThunderWolves	10	4	8	11	12	8	13	DSQ	7	11	9	6	8	10	134	Miles Cundey '28 Lilly Pollock '28
St. Petersburg High School	Green Devils	8	8	10	10	6	12	12	13	13	10	11	10	11	3	137	Ryder Ellis '27 [1-2, 7-8, 13-14] Gloria Privis '26 [3-6, 9-12] Sophia Fuller '25 [1-6, 13-14] Parker Connell '28 [7-10] Ava Shakespeare '25 [11-12]
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	13	15	14	16	5	10	10	7	6	12	14	14	9	12	157	Gavin Crowell '28 Eleanor Wright '26
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	9	9	11	15	9	14	9	14	16	15	13	12	15	13	174	Noah Dailey '27 Thomas Bearden '27
Wando High School	Warriors	14	14	12	13	13	9	14	10	12	14	15	8	16	15	179	Lilianna Harris '27 [1-14] Caroline Larrabee '25 [1-2, 7-10] Jack Mccluskey '27 [3-6, 11-14]
Academic Magnet High School	Raptors A	16	16	16	14	15	16	15	15	14	9	12	16	10	14	198	William Mccarty '26 Hank Houseal '27
New Bern High School	NB Bears Sailing	15	12	15	12	16	15	11	12	15	16	16	15	14	16	200	Izzy Humphries '25 Maegon Voegtlin '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.170+0.17

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2025 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A	13A	14A
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Antilles School Hurricanes	2	2	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	4	4	2	2	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8
Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1
James Island Charter High School Varsity	6	6	4	4	2	2	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3
Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	16	16	14	14	12	12
MAST Academy Makos	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5
New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	16	16	14	14
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	11	11	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Pine Crest School Panthers	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2	16	16
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	13	13	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	15	15	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2
Wando High School Warriors	16	16	14	14	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B	13B	14B
Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Antilles School Hurricanes	1	1	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	3	3	1	1	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7
Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2
James Island Charter High School Varsity	5	5	3	3	1	1	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4
Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	15	15	13	13	11	11
MAST Academy Makos	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6
New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	15	15	13	13
Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	12	12	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Pine Crest School Panthers	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1	15	15
Ransom Everglades School Raiders	14	14	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	16	16	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1
Wando High School Warriors	15	15	13	13	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Academic Magnet High School	Mason Fisher '26	Elizabeth Hample '25
Raptors A	William Mccarty '26	Hank Houseal '27
Antilles School	Tanner Krygsveld '25 [1-14]	Mia Ronen '25 [1-2] Rena Yu '27 [3-14]
Hurricanes	Cobia Fagan '28 [1-10] Robert Richards '25 [11-14]	Halina Diehl '26 [1-10]
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Audrey Russler '26	Paulina Freyre '25
Carrollton School	Elizabeth Xydas '28	Alexandra Kolaya '27
Gulliver Preparatory School	Connor Karr '28	Danika Torres '27
Raiders	Afonso Cruz '26 [1-12] Alfonso Lanseros '27 [13-14]	Sebastian Taylor '28 [1-12]
Immaculata La Salle High School	David Mateo Coates '27 [1-6] Beck Brill '27 [7-10, 13-14] Isabella Henrich '26 [11-12]	Soleil Aurignac '25 [1-6] Nathalie Caudron '25 [7-14]
Royal Lions	Keith Grupenhoff '25 [1-14]	Nathalie Caudron '25 [1-4] Alejandro Escudero '27 [5-14]
James Island Charter High School	Jackson Fisher '26 [1-14]	Georgia Montgomery '26 [1-2, 5-6, 9-12] Beckett Holley '25 [3-4, 7-8, 13-14]
Varsity	Noah Dailey '27	Thomas Bearden '27
John T. Hoggard High School	Finn Bell '26	George Adams '25
Vikings Varsity	Gavin Crowell '28	Eleanor Wright '26
Lucy Beckham High School	James Pine '26	Charlotte Casey '25
Bengals	Nathan Pine '26 [1-14]	Anna Connolly '26 [1-2, 5-10] Gresham Kinard '26 [3-4, 11-14]
MAST Academy	Oliver Holt '26 [1-2] Davide Bazzoni '26 [3-14]	Maryna Downey '27 [1-2] Theodore Mccormick '26 [3-14]
Makos	Carlos Beckmann '25 [1-2, 7-10, 13-14] Minx Anthony '26 [3-6, 11-12]	Julia Gil '26 [1-2, 7-10, 13-14] Andrea Bolz '27 [3-6, 11-12]
New Bern High School	Graham Foster '26	Henry Foster '28
NB Bears Sailing	Izzy Humphries '25	Maegon Voegtlin '25
Oxbridge Academy	Andrew Lamm '26 [1-14]	Mia Lago '26 [1-6, 9-10, 13-14] Noah Rabiei '25 [7-8, 11-12]
ThunderWolves	Miles Cundey '28	Lilly Pollock '28
Pine Crest School	Connor Mertz '25	Aurora Christiansen '26
Panthers	Miles Julien '27 [1-12] Jake Taubman '25 [13-14]	Jake Taubman '25 [1-12] Preston Rogers '27 [13-14]
Ransom Everglades School	Griggs Diemar '25 [1-14]	Elisa De Becker '28 [1-8] Amelia Lazarus '25 [9-14]
Raiders	Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25 [1-12] Ava Mc Aliley '26 [13-14]	Sofia Rhone '26 [1-12] Leyla Amjad '26 [13-14]
St. Petersburg High School	John Hartney '28	Adam Mendelblatt '26
Green Devils	Ryder Ellis '27 [1-2, 7-8, 13-14] Gloria Privis '26 [3-6, 9-12]	Sophia Fuller '25 [1-6, 13-14] Parker Connell '28 [7-10] Ava Shakespeare '25 [11-12]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Cody Roe '25 [1-14]	Ana Lynch Smith '25 [1-8] Isabel Viega '28 [9-14]
Raiders	Kj Hill '25 [1-6, 9-14] Cole Fanchi '26 [7-8]	Isabel Viega '28 [1-6] Ana Lynch Smith '25 [7-14]
Wando High School	Madeleine Harris '25 [1-14]	Stella Fletcher '27 [1-2, 7-8] Matthew Fisher '27 [3-6, 9-14]
Warriors	Lilianna Harris '27 [1-14]	Caroline Larrabee '25 [1-2, 7-10] Jack Mccluskey '27 [3-6, 11-14]

Conditions — 05/03/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1014.8 hPa

Temperature

80°F

↑ 83°F ↓ 73°F

Feels like 82°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.9 kn

avg · max 10.4 kn

Gusts to 23.7 kn

From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover74% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1014.8 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 8 kn · SW 12 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at St. Petersburg: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.01

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.08 ± 0.08)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Petersburg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 5 labelled days at St. Petersburg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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