Gulliver Preparatory School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.28 (fleet 3.58) | 24 of 231 | +0.07 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–12 (64%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 21–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (33 matches) the record is 21–12 against 15.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | ISSA Team Race Championship for the Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.49 | 3.53 | 9–7 | 6.4 | +1.04 | 1.5 | 11% |
| 2026-04-18 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.28 | 3.55 | 12–5 | 8.7 | +1.27 | 2.3 | 7% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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