SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier

HostRansom Everglades School
Date04/18/2026
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420/CFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	14–3
2	Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	12–5
3	MAST Academy	Makos	11–6
4	Antilles School	Hurricanes One	10–7
5	Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	5–9
6	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	4–10
7	Greene School	Dolphins	4–10
8	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,310 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 47 of 62 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.567 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.32 ± 0.30: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 21% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	2	6.76	Max Wolfensberger / Elisa De Becker 12–3 Sander Block / Leyla Amjad 6–3 Tommy Zaydon / Carmela Brana 1.95 8–0 Ava Mc Aliley / Sofia Rhone 2.39 7–0 Annie Ulmer / Sofia Rhone 5–0 Tommy Zaydon / Sofia Rhone 2.15 2–3 Annie Ulmer / Leyla Amjad 2–0	66%	14–3 (82%)	+2.8
2	Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	4	6.01 school −0.17	Alfonso Lanseros / Sebastian Taylor Connor Karr / Frederick Nooij Arturo Zizold / Danika Torres	52%	12–5 (71%)	+3.1
3	MAST Academy Makos	1	7.62 school +0.60	Davide Bazzoni / Theodore Mccormick 2.63 Oliver Holt / Julia Gil 2.09 Minx Anthony / Andrea Bolz 2.21 9–6 Kayaan Panthaki / Maryna Downey 2–0	79%	11–6 (65%)	−2.4
4	Antilles School Hurricanes One	3	6.20 school +0.42	Audrey Zimmerman / Dominika Skoda Will Zimmerman / Rena Yu Cobia Fagan / Halina Diehl 2.02 7–5 Cobia Fagan / Mariana Diehl 1.75 3–2	57%	10–7 (59%)	+0.4
5	Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	7	4.70	Beck Brill / Luis Flores 2.00 Isabella Henrich / Arturo De La Rosa 1.30 3–7 Gabi Mascarenhas / Diego De Teran 3–7 Leonardo Tarzani / Mia Noritake 2–2 Marina Wardlaw / Diego De Teran 2–2	31%	5–9 (36%)	+0.6
6	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	5	5.86 school −0.07	Elizabeth Xydas / Claire Chormanski 1.91 Sienna Kolaya / Violet Karr Audrey Russler / Leighton Rivero 2.39	51%	4–10 (29%)	−3.1
7	Greene School Dolphins	6	5.10	Drew Lamm / Elizabeth Kniskern Kaeman Floyd / Julia Palmisciano Cameron Green / Penelope Mahajan	38%	4–10 (29%)	−1.3
8	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	8	3.61 school +0.33	Pierce Weber / Delfina Cole Fanchi / Danielle Lynch Smith 1.98 0–10 Emilio / Marin Redmond 0–10 Cole Fanchi / Marin Redmond 2.04 2–2 Emilio / Danielle Lynch Smith 2–2	14%	2–12 (14%)	−0.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Ransom Everglades School	6.76	8.05	14–3	11.2	+1.28	1.9	10%
2	Gulliver Preparatory School	6.01	7.19	12–5	8.9	+1.18	2.0	8%
5	Immaculata La Salle High School	4.70	5.01	5–9	4.4	+0.31	0.1	45%
4	Antilles School	6.20	6.34	10–7	9.6	+0.14	0.0	53%
8	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	3.61	3.59	2–12	2.0	−0.02	0.0	63%
7	Greene School	5.10	4.42	4–10	5.3	−0.69	0.5	87%
3	MAST Academy	7.62	6.63	11–6	13.4	−0.99	1.4	96%
6	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	5.86	4.33	4–10	7.1	−1.53	2.6	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ava Mc Aliley	Ransom Everglades School	2.39	5.39	7–0	5.0	≥+3.00	3.0	9%
Annie Ulmer	Ransom Everglades School	1.88	4.88	7–0	5.0	≥+3.00	3.3	7%
Alfonso Lanseros	Gulliver Preparatory School	1.52	2.70	12–5	8.9	+1.18	2.0	8%
Connor Karr	Gulliver Preparatory School	2.37	3.55	12–5	8.9	+1.18	2.0	8%
Arturo Zizold	Gulliver Preparatory School	1.86	3.04	12–5	8.9	+1.18	2.0	8%
Tommy Zaydon	Ransom Everglades School	1.95	3.02	10–3	8.0	+1.07	1.2	18%
Leonardo Tarzani	Immaculata La Salle High School	1.55	2.06	2–2	1.8	+0.51	0.1	66%
Marina Wardlaw	Immaculata La Salle High School	1.27	1.78	2–2	1.8	+0.51	0.1	66%
Beck Brill	Immaculata La Salle High School	2.00	2.31	5–9	4.4	+0.31	0.1	45%
Isabella Henrich	Immaculata La Salle High School	1.30	1.55	3–7	2.6	+0.26	0.1	51%
Gabi Mascarenhas	Immaculata La Salle High School	0.85	1.10	3–7	2.6	+0.26	0.1	51%
Cobia Fagan	Antilles School	2.02	2.16	10–7	9.6	+0.14	0.0	53%
Audrey Zimmerman	Antilles School	2.08	2.22	10–7	9.6	+0.14	0.0	53%
Will Zimmerman	Antilles School	1.59	1.73	10–7	9.6	+0.14	0.0	53%
Sander Block	Ransom Everglades School	2.53	2.51	6–3	6.0	−0.01	0.0	67%
Emilio	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	0.56	0.53	2–12	2.0	−0.02	0.0	63%
Pierce Weber	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	0.56	0.53	2–12	2.0	−0.02	0.0	63%
Drew Lamm	Greene School	2.13	1.45	4–10	5.3	−0.69	0.5	87%
Kaeman Floyd	Greene School	1.70	1.01	4–10	5.3	−0.69	0.5	87%
Cameron Green	Greene School	0.80	0.12	4–10	5.3	−0.69	0.5	87%
Elizabeth Xydas	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	1.91	0.37	4–10	7.1	−1.53	2.6	99%
Sienna Kolaya	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	1.34	-0.19	4–10	7.1	−1.53	2.6	99%
Audrey Russler	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	2.39	0.86	4–10	7.1	−1.53	2.6	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Gulliver Preparatory School	Immaculata La Salle High School	75%
1	2	Greene School	MAST Academy	10%	upset
1	3	Ransom Everglades School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	76%
1	4	Antilles School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	89%
1	5	Gulliver Preparatory School	Greene School	67%
1	6	Immaculata La Salle High School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	26%	upset
1	7	MAST Academy	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	96%
1	8	Ransom Everglades School	Antilles School	47%	upset
1	9	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Greene School	65%
1	10	Gulliver Preparatory School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	86%
1	11	Ransom Everglades School	Immaculata La Salle High School	85%
1	12	MAST Academy	Antilles School	74%
1	13	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	85%
1	14	Ransom Everglades School	Greene School	82%
1	15	Gulliver Preparatory School	MAST Academy	21%	upset
1	16	Antilles School	Immaculata La Salle High School	76%
1	17	Ransom Everglades School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	90%
1	18	MAST Academy	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	83%
1	19	Immaculata La Salle High School	Greene School	40%	upset
1	20	Gulliver Preparatory School	Antilles School	49%	upset
1	21	MAST Academy	Ransom Everglades School	61%
1	22	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Immaculata La Salle High School	26%	upset
1	23	Gulliver Preparatory School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	52%
1	24	Antilles School	Greene School	71%
1	25	Immaculata La Salle High School	MAST Academy	12%	upset
1	26	Ransom Everglades School	Gulliver Preparatory School	63%
1	27	Greene School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	77%
1	28	Antilles School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	57%
2	29	Antilles School	Immaculata La Salle High School	76%
2	30	MAST Academy	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	82%
2	31	Gulliver Preparatory School	Greene School	66%
2	32	Ransom Everglades School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	90%
2	33	Antilles School	MAST Academy	26%	upset
2	34	Immaculata La Salle High School	Gulliver Preparatory School	25%	upset
2	35	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	86%
2	36	Ransom Everglades School	Greene School	81%
2	37	Gulliver Preparatory School	MAST Academy	24%	upset
2	38	Antilles School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	89%
2	39	Greene School	Immaculata La Salle High School	61%
2	40	Ransom Everglades School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	74%
2	41	Gulliver Preparatory School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	87%
2	42	MAST Academy	Greene School	86%
2	43	Antilles School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	57%
2	44	Ransom Everglades School	Immaculata La Salle High School	84%
2	45	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Greene School	22%	upset
2	46	Gulliver Preparatory School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	53%
2	47	MAST Academy	Immaculata La Salle High School	87%
2	48	Ransom Everglades School	Antilles School	50%
2	49	Greene School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	37%	upset
2	50	Immaculata La Salle High School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	77%
2	51	Antilles School	Gulliver Preparatory School	49%	upset
2	52	MAST Academy	Ransom Everglades School	60%
2	53	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Immaculata La Salle High School	73%
2	54	Antilles School	Greene School	69%
2	55	MAST Academy	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	95%
2	56	Ransom Everglades School	Gulliver Preparatory School	63%
2	57	Gulliver Preparatory School	Antilles School	51%
2	58	MAST Academy	Ransom Everglades School	60%
2	59	MAST Academy	Antilles School	73%
2	60	Ransom Everglades School	Gulliver Preparatory School	63%
2	61	Gulliver Preparatory School	MAST Academy	25%	upset
2	62	Ransom Everglades School	Antilles School	51%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Royal Lions	3-4-5
2	Dolphins	1-3-4	def.	Makos	2-5-6
3	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-5
4	Hurricanes One	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
5	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Dolphins	4-5-6
6	Royal Lions	1-3-4	def.	Carrollton School	2-5-6
7	Makos	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
8	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes One	3-4-5
9	Carrollton School	1-2-3	def.	Dolphins	4-5-6
10	Raiders	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6
11	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Royal Lions	3-4-5
12	Makos	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes One	3-4-5
13	Carrollton School	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
14	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Dolphins	3-4-6
15	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Makos	3-4-5
16	Hurricanes One	1-2-3	def.	Royal Lions	4-5-6
17	Raiders	1-3-6	def.	Raiders	2-4-5
18	Makos	1-2-5	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-6
19	Royal Lions	2-3-4	def.	Dolphins	1-5-6
20	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes One	3-4-6
21	Makos	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6
22	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Royal Lions	3-4-6
23	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-5
24	Hurricanes One	1-2-6	def.	Dolphins	3-4-5
25	Royal Lions	1-4-5	def.	Makos	2-3-6
26	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
27	Dolphins	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
28	Hurricanes One	1-2-3	def.	Carrollton School	4-5-6
29	Hurricanes One	1-2-4	def.	Royal Lions	3-5-6
30	Makos	1-2-6	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-5
31	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Dolphins	3-4-6
32	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
33	Hurricanes One	1-2-6	def.	Makos	3-4-5
34	Royal Lions	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
35	Carrollton School	1-3-6	def.	Raiders	2-4-5
36	Raiders	2-3-4	def.	Dolphins	1-5-6
37	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Makos	3-4-5
38	Hurricanes One	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
39	Dolphins	1-2-3	def.	Royal Lions	4-5-6
40	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-6
41	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
42	Makos	1-2-5	def.	Dolphins	3-4-6
43	Hurricanes One	1-2-6	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-5
44	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Royal Lions	3-4-6
45	Raiders	1-3-4	def.	Dolphins	2-5-6
46	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-5
47	Makos	1-2-6	def.	Royal Lions	3-4-5
48	Raiders	1-3-4	def.	Hurricanes One	2-5-6
49	Dolphins	1-2-6	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-5
50	Royal Lions	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
51	Hurricanes One	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
52	Makos	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
53	Carrollton School	1-3-5	def.	Royal Lions	2-4-6
54	Hurricanes One	1-2-3	def.	Dolphins	4-5-6
55	Makos	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
56	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
57	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes One	3-4-6
58	Makos	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6
59	Makos	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes One	3-4-6
60	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
61	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Makos	3-4-6
62	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes One	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	Annie Ulmer '29 Ava Mc Aliley '26 Max Wolfensberger '26 Sander Block '28 Tommy Zaydon '28	Sofia Rhone '26 Leyla Amjad '26 Elisa De Becker '28 Carmela Brana '28
Gulliver Preparatory School	Raiders	Alfonso Lanseros '27 Arturo Zizold '29 Connor Karr '28	Sebastian Taylor '28 Danika Torres '27 Frederick Nooij '29
MAST Academy	Makos	Davide Bazzoni '26 Kayaan Panthaki '29 Minx Anthony '26 Oliver Holt '26	Theodore Mccormick '26 Maryna Downey '27 Andrea Bolz '27 Julia Gil '26
Antilles School	Hurricanes One	Audrey Zimmerman '27 Cobia Fagan '28 Will Zimmerman '29	Dominika Skoda '27 Mariana Diehl '28 Halina Diehl '26 Rena Yu '27
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	Beck Brill '27 Gabi Mascarenhas '28 Isabella Henrich '26 Leonardo Tarzani '27 Marina Wardlaw '27	Luis Flores '29 Diego De Teran '28 Arturo De La Rosa '27 Mia Noritake '29
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	Audrey Russler '26 Elizabeth Xydas '28 Sienna Kolaya '29	Leighton Rivero '27 Claire Chormanski '29 Violet Karr '29
Greene School	Dolphins	Cameron Green '27 Drew Lamm '26 Kaeman Floyd '27	Penelope Mahajan '28 Elizabeth Kniskern '26 Julia Palmisciano '27
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	Cole Fanchi '26 Emilio '28 Pierce Weber '27	Danielle Lynch Smith '26 Marin Redmond '28 Delfina '26

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →