Ransom Everglades School '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.14 (fleet 3.32) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.09 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–9 (68%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 19–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 19–9 against 13.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | ISSA Team Race Championship for the Baker Trophy | skipper | 2.32 | 3.38 | 7–6 | 4.7 | +1.06 | 1.4 | 13% |
| 2026-04-18 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.08 | 3.54 | 12–3 | 9.0 | +1.46 | 2.3 | 7% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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