Gulliver Preparatory School '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.69 (fleet 2.61) | 77 of 231 | +0.07 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 21–12 (64%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 21–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (33 matches) the record is 21–12 against 15.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | ISSA Team Race Championship for the Baker Trophy | skipper | 1.93 | 2.99 | 9–7 | 6.3 | +1.06 | 1.6 | 11% |
| 2026-04-18 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.79 | 3.08 | 12–5 | 8.6 | +1.29 | 2.4 | 6% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP #5 Varsity | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.7 | 3.66 |
| SAISA South Points 4 | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.8 | 2.23 |
| SAISA Doublehanded Championship/Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.3 | 3.37 |
| SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| ISSA Team Race Championship for the Baker Trophy | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| 2026 ISSA Mallory National Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.9 | 2.73 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP 2 Varsity | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.0 | 2.77 |
| SAISA South Points #1 2025-26 | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.6 | 2.39 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.0 | 2.66 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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