Greene School '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.71 (fleet 1.16) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–10 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 4–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 4–10 against 5.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 0.74 | 0.02 | 4–10 | 5.4 | −0.73 | 0.6 | 88% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP #5 JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.8 | 1.81 |
| SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP 2 JV | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.8 | 1.62 |
| SAISA South Points #1 JV 2025-26 | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 1.25 |
| SAISA South Points #3 - JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 0.76 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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