Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.22 (fleet 2.03) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 4–10 (29%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 4–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 4–10 against 7.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.30 | -0.16 | 4–10 | 7.0 | −1.46 | 2.4 | 98% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP #5 JV | Skipper | A, B | 12 | 5.6 | A 2.40 · B 2.00 |
| SAISA South Points 7 - JV | Skipper | A | 3 | 1.7 | 4.09 |
| SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP 2 JV | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.4 | 2.97 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 2.99 |
| ISSA 2025 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 2 | 15.5 | 1.11 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP's 3 JV | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.5 | 2.10 |
| SAISA South Points #5 JV. | Skipper | A, B | 18 | 4.3 | A 1.18 · B 1.16 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA South Points 1 2024-25 JV | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.3 | 1.14 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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