Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.67 (fleet 2.74) | 81 of 231 | −0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–23 (28%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 1 | 4–10 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 5–13 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (32 matches) the record is 9–23 against 13.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 1.83 | 0.35 | 4–10 | 7.0 | −1.49 | 2.5 | 99% |
| 2025-04-26 | SAISA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.97 | 1.39 | 5–13 | 6.4 | −0.57 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP #5 Varsity | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 3.89 |
| SAISA South Points 7 - Varsity | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.0 | 1.89 |
| SAISA South Points 4 | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.2 | 2.85 |
| SAISA Doublehanded Championship/Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.1 | 2.80 |
| SAISA Baker Team Race Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 14 | 29% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP 2 Varsity | Skipper | B | 5 | 5.0 | 2.75 |
| SAISA South Points #1 2025-26 | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 4.08 |
| SAISA South Points #3 | Skipper | A | 6 | 8.2 | 2.07 |
| ISSA 2025 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.6 | 3.61 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA SP's 3 2025 | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.3 | 3.07 |
| SAISA SP's 1 | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.9 | 1.43 |
| SAISA South Points #5 Varsity. | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.8 | 2.92 |
| SAISA South Points 2 | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.8 | 2.28 |
| SAISA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.2 | 2.13 |
| SAISA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| South Points ACC Qualifier | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.7 | 2.71 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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