SAISA Baker Qualifier

HostJohn T. Hoggard
Date04/26/2025
TypeDistrict Championship
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Antilles School	Hurricanes	18–6
2	MAST Academy	Makos	16–8
3	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	14–10
4	Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	12–12
5	Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	10–8
6	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	5–13
7	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	0–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 12,148 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 57 of 75 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.469 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.41 ± 0.30: an orderly event, more orderly than 71% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Antilles School Hurricanes	1	8.12 school +0.29	Robert Richards / Rena Yu 2.44 Alejo Diblasi / Halina Diehl 2.10 15–6 Tanner Krygsveld / Mia Ronen 3.20 15–6 Cobia Fagan / Mia Ronen 3–0 Tanner Krygsveld / Dominika Skoda 2.98 3–0	74%	18–6 (75%)	+0.2
2	MAST Academy Makos	2	7.27 school +0.38	Davide Bazzoni / Theodore Mccormick 2.65 Oliver Holt / Maryna Downey 1.91 Carlos Beckmann / Julia Gil 2.19 13–8 Minx Anthony / Andrea Bolz 3–0	58%	16–8 (67%)	+2.2
3	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	3	7.09 school +0.27	Cody Roe / Danielle Lynch Smith 2.71 Cole Fanchi / Marin Redmond Kj Hill / Isabel Viega 2.11 6–7 Kj Hill / Pierce Weber 2.00 5–3 Mariano Viega / Kj Hill 3–0	56%	14–10 (58%)	+0.5
4	Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	4	6.89	Keith Grupenhoff / Alejandro Escudero 2.40 David Mateo Coates / Lucia Martinez Moore 2.28 Beck Brill / Nathalie Caudron 8–8 Isabella Henrich / Soleil Aurignac 4–4	52%	12–12 (50%)	−0.4
5	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	5	6.71 school −0.12	Sebastian Van De Kreeke / Sofia Rhone 2.31 Garrett Fox / Leyla Amjad 2.32 8–7 Ava Mc Aliley / Manolo Campos 2.21 6–6 Tommy Zaydon / Amelia Lazarus 6–3	51%	10–8 (56%)	+0.8
6	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	6	5.78	Audrey Russler / Leighton Rivero Elizabeth Xydas / Alexandra Kolaya 4–11 Isabella Storm / Carola Zapata 4–11 Isabella Storm / Alexandra Kolaya 1–2 Elizabeth Xydas / Carola Zapata 1–2	35%	5–13 (28%)	−1.4
7	John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	7	3.86 home +0.15	Finn Bell / George Adams Gavin Crowell / Eleanor Wright Olivia Burdette / Sam Hemingway 0–9 Petra Humphrey / Sam Hemingway 0.84 0–9	10%	0–18 (0%)	−1.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	MAST Academy	7.27	7.83	16–8	13.8	+0.56	0.7	23%
5	Ransom Everglades School	6.71	6.96	10–8	9.3	+0.25	0.1	45%
3	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	7.09	7.21	14–10	13.5	+0.12	0.0	50%
1	Antilles School	8.12	8.18	18–6	17.8	+0.06	0.0	57%
4	Immaculata La Salle High School	6.89	6.79	12–12	12.4	−0.10	0.0	65%
6	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	5.78	5.20	5–13	6.4	−0.57	0.4	85%
7	John T. Hoggard High School	3.86	0.86	0–18	1.9	≤−3.00	2.6	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Cobia Fagan	Antilles School	2.20	5.20	3–0	2.9	≥+3.00	0.2	89%
Mariano Viega	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	1.87	4.87	3–0	2.7	≥+3.00	0.4	75%
Olivia Burdette	John T. Hoggard High School	0.83	1.40	16–8	13.8	+0.56	0.7	23%
Ava Mc Aliley	Ransom Everglades School	2.21	2.50	6–6	5.4	+0.29	0.1	47%
Garrett Fox	Ransom Everglades School	2.32	2.57	8–7	7.4	+0.25	0.1	47%
Tommy Zaydon	Ransom Everglades School	1.73	1.93	6–3	5.7	+0.20	0.0	58%
Beck Brill	Immaculata La Salle High School	2.03	2.09	8–8	7.8	+0.06	0.0	57%
Kj Hill	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	2.11	2.17	11–10	10.8	+0.06	0.0	55%
Alejo Diblasi	Antilles School	2.10	2.12	15–6	14.9	+0.03	0.0	59%
David Mateo Coates	Immaculata La Salle High School	2.28	2.18	12–12	12.4	−0.10	0.0	65%
Isabella Henrich	Immaculata La Salle High School	1.52	1.04	4–4	4.6	−0.48	0.1	81%
Audrey Russler	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	2.03	1.46	5–13	6.4	−0.57	0.4	85%
Elizabeth Xydas	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	1.97	1.39	5–13	6.4	−0.57	0.4	85%
Isabella Storm	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	1.22	0.65	5–13	6.4	−0.57	0.4	85%
Finn Bell	John T. Hoggard High School	1.26	-1.74	0–18	1.9	≤−3.00	2.6	>99%
Gavin Crowell	John T. Hoggard High School	1.14	-1.86	0–18	1.9	≤−3.00	2.6	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Immaculata La Salle High School	John T. Hoggard High School	90%
1	2	MAST Academy	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	82%
1	3	Antilles School	Ransom Everglades School	74%
1	4	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Immaculata La Salle High School	63%
1	5	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	John T. Hoggard High School	81%
1	6	Antilles School	MAST Academy	67%
1	7	Ransom Everglades School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	46%	upset
1	8	Immaculata La Salle High School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	73%
1	9	Antilles School	John T. Hoggard High School	97%
1	10	MAST Academy	Ransom Everglades School	57%
1	11	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	73%
1	12	Antilles School	Immaculata La Salle High School	71%
1	13	Ransom Everglades School	John T. Hoggard High School	89%
1	14	MAST Academy	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	53%
1	15	Antilles School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	87%
1	16	Immaculata La Salle High School	Ransom Everglades School	60%
1	17	MAST Academy	John T. Hoggard High School	93%
1	18	Antilles School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	70%
1	19	Ransom Everglades School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	63%
1	20	Immaculata La Salle High School	MAST Academy	45%	upset
1	21	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	John T. Hoggard High School	92%
2	22	Immaculata La Salle High School	John T. Hoggard High School	88%
2	23	MAST Academy	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	76%
2	24	Antilles School	Ransom Everglades School	72%
2	25	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Immaculata La Salle High School	62%
2	26	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	John T. Hoggard High School	81%
2	27	MAST Academy	Antilles School	34%	upset
2	28	Ransom Everglades School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	46%	upset
2	29	Immaculata La Salle High School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	72%
2	30	Antilles School	John T. Hoggard High School	96%
2	31	Ransom Everglades School	MAST Academy	44%	upset
2	32	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	72%
2	33	Antilles School	Immaculata La Salle High School	69%
2	34	Ransom Everglades School	John T. Hoggard High School	89%
2	35	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	MAST Academy	47%	upset
2	36	Antilles School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	85%
2	37	Ransom Everglades School	Immaculata La Salle High School	40%	upset
2	38	MAST Academy	John T. Hoggard High School	92%
2	39	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Antilles School	31%	upset
2	40	Ransom Everglades School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	62%
2	41	MAST Academy	Immaculata La Salle High School	54%
2	42	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	John T. Hoggard High School	91%
3	43	Immaculata La Salle High School	John T. Hoggard High School	87%
3	44	MAST Academy	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	75%
3	45	Antilles School	Ransom Everglades School	71%
3	46	Immaculata La Salle High School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	38%	upset
3	47	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	John T. Hoggard High School	81%
3	48	MAST Academy	Antilles School	35%	upset
3	49	Ransom Everglades School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	46%	upset
3	50	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Immaculata La Salle High School	28%	upset
3	51	Antilles School	John T. Hoggard High School	96%
3	52	MAST Academy	Ransom Everglades School	56%
3	53	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	71%
3	54	Immaculata La Salle High School	Antilles School	32%	upset
3	55	Ransom Everglades School	John T. Hoggard High School	89%
3	56	MAST Academy	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	53%
3	57	Antilles School	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	84%
3	58	Immaculata La Salle High School	Ransom Everglades School	60%
3	59	MAST Academy	John T. Hoggard High School	92%
3	60	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Antilles School	31%	upset
3	61	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Ransom Everglades School	39%	upset
3	62	MAST Academy	Immaculata La Salle High School	53%
3	63	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	John T. Hoggard High School	90%
4	64	Antilles School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	69%
4	65	MAST Academy	Immaculata La Salle High School	53%
4	66	Immaculata La Salle High School	Antilles School	32%	upset
4	67	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	MAST Academy	47%	upset
4	68	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Immaculata La Salle High School	62%
4	69	Antilles School	MAST Academy	65%
5	70	Antilles School	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	68%
5	71	Immaculata La Salle High School	MAST Academy	47%	upset
5	72	Antilles School	Immaculata La Salle High School	68%
5	73	MAST Academy	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	53%
5	74	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Immaculata La Salle High School	62%
5	75	Antilles School	MAST Academy	65%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Royal Lions	1-2-3	def.	Vikings Varsity	4-5-6
2	Makos	1-2-4	def.	Carrollton School	3-5-6
3	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
4	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Royal Lions	4-5-6
5	Carrollton School	1-3-5	def.	Vikings Varsity	2-4-6
6	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Makos	4-5-6
7	Raiders	2-3-5	def.	Raiders	1-4-6
8	Royal Lions	1-2-5	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-6
9	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Vikings Varsity	4-5-6
10	Makos	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
11	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-5
12	Hurricanes	1-3-5	def.	Royal Lions	2-4-6
13	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Vikings Varsity	4-5-6
14	Makos	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
15	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Carrollton School	4-5-6
16	Royal Lions	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
17	Makos	1-2-4	def.	Vikings Varsity	3-5-6
18	Hurricanes	1-3-5	def.	Raiders	2-4-6
19	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Carrollton School	4-5-6
20	Royal Lions	1-3-4	def.	Makos	2-5-6
21	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Vikings Varsity	4-5-6
22	Royal Lions	1-2-4	def.	Vikings Varsity	3-5-6
23	Makos	1-2-5	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-6
24	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
25	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Royal Lions	3-4-5
26	Carrollton School	1-2-3	def.	Vikings Varsity	4-5-6
27	Makos	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
28	Raiders	1-3-5	def.	Raiders	2-4-6
29	Royal Lions	1-2-3	def.	Carrollton School	4-5-6
30	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Vikings Varsity	4-5-6
31	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Makos	3-4-6
32	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-6
33	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Royal Lions	3-5-6
34	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Vikings Varsity	4-5-6
35	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Makos	4-5-6
36	Hurricanes	1-2-3	def.	Carrollton School	4-5-6
37	Raiders	2-3-4	def.	Royal Lions	1-5-6
38	Makos	1-2-4	def.	Vikings Varsity	3-5-6
39	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Hurricanes	4-5-6
40	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Carrollton School	4-5-6
41	Makos	1-3-4	def.	Royal Lions	2-5-6
42	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Vikings Varsity	3-5-6
43	Royal Lions	1-2-5	def.	Vikings Varsity	3-4-6
44	Makos	1-2-6	def.	Carrollton School	3-4-5
45	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
46	Royal Lions	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6
47	Carrollton School	1-2-4	def.	Vikings Varsity	3-5-6
48	Makos	1-2-5	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-6
49	Raiders	2-3-4	def.	Raiders	1-5-6
50	Carrollton School	1-2-3	def.	Royal Lions	4-5-6
51	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Vikings Varsity	3-4-5
52	Makos	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
53	Raiders	2-3-4	def.	Carrollton School	1-5-6
54	Royal Lions	1-2-6	def.	Hurricanes	3-4-5
55	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Vikings Varsity	4-5-6
56	Makos	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
57	Hurricanes	1-3-6	def.	Carrollton School	2-4-5
58	Royal Lions	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
59	Makos	1-2-3	def.	Vikings Varsity	4-5-6
60	Raiders	1-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	2-5-6
61	Carrollton School	1-4-5	def.	Raiders	2-3-6
62	Makos	1-2-5	def.	Royal Lions	3-4-6
63	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Vikings Varsity	4-5-6
64	Hurricanes	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6
65	Makos	1-3-5	def.	Royal Lions	2-4-6
66	Royal Lions	1-3-4	def.	Hurricanes	2-5-6
67	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Makos	3-5-6
68	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Royal Lions	3-4-6
69	Hurricanes	2-3-5	def.	Makos	1-4-6
70	Hurricanes	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
71	Royal Lions	1-2-5	def.	Makos	3-4-6
72	Hurricanes	1-2-6	def.	Royal Lions	3-4-5
73	Makos	1-2-6	def.	Raiders	3-4-5
74	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Royal Lions	3-4-5
75	Hurricanes	1-3-5	def.	Makos	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Antilles School	Hurricanes	Alejo Diblasi '25 Cobia Fagan '28 Robert Richards '25 Tanner Krygsveld '25	Halina Diehl '26 Mia Ronen '25 Rena Yu '27 Dominika Skoda '27
MAST Academy	Makos	Carlos Beckmann '25 Davide Bazzoni '26 Minx Anthony '26 Oliver Holt '26	Julia Gil '26 Theodore Mccormick '26 Andrea Bolz '27 Maryna Downey '27
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	Cody Roe '25 Cole Fanchi '26 Kj Hill '25 Mariano Viega '25	Danielle Lynch Smith '26 Marin Redmond '28 Isabel Viega '28 Pierce Weber '27 Kj Hill '25
Immaculata La Salle High School	Royal Lions	Beck Brill '27 David Mateo Coates '27 Isabella Henrich '26 Keith Grupenhoff '25	Nathalie Caudron '25 Lucia Martinez Moore '25 Soleil Aurignac '25 Alejandro Escudero '27
Ransom Everglades School	Raiders	Ava Mc Aliley '26 Garrett Fox '26 Sebastian Van De Kreeke '25 Tommy Zaydon '28	Manolo Campos '25 Leyla Amjad '26 Sofia Rhone '26 Amelia Lazarus '25
Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart	Carrollton School	Audrey Russler '26 Elizabeth Xydas '28 Isabella Storm '26	Leighton Rivero '27 Alexandra Kolaya '27 Carola Zapata '26
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity	Finn Bell '26 Gavin Crowell '28 Olivia Burdette '25 Petra Humphrey '25	George Adams '25 Eleanor Wright '26 Sam Hemingway '27

Conditions — 04/26/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 60% · Pressure 1017.6 hPa

Temperature

77°F

↑ 82°F ↓ 70°F

Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.9 kn

avg · max 10.7 kn

Gusts to 23.3 kn

From SW (221°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover81% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity60% Pressure1017.6 hPa

What this breeze does at John T. Hoggard — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at John T. Hoggard in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at John T. Hoggard by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at John T. Hoggard, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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