John T. Hoggard High School '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.11 (fleet 1.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–18 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 0–18 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 0–18 against 1.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-26 | SAISA Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.14 | -1.86 | 0–18 | 1.9 | ≤−3.00 | 2.6 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Points #6 - Varsity | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.0 | 1.62 |
| SAISA Doublehanded Championship/Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | 1.74 |
| NP#5 Varsity | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.7 | 2.14 |
| North Points #7 | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.5 | 3.14 |
| 2026 Azalea Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 6.2 | 1.50 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA NP3 (Varsity) | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.8 | 2.15 |
| North Points #1 (JV/Composite) | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.3 | 3.19 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Points 7 Varsity | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.1 | 1.82 |
| SAISA North Points 6 | Skipper | B | 7 | 5.1 | 1.19 |
| SAISA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | B | 14 | 11.2 | 0.70 |
| SAISA Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 18 | 0% | — |
| North Points #5 Varsity | Skipper | B | 3 | 5.0 | 1.29 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| SAISA North Points #1 - Varsity | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.1 | 2.34 |
| North Points #2 - JV/Composite | Skipper | B | 6 | 1.8 | 2.45 |
| JV N. Points #4 | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| 2024 NP3 (JV/Composite) | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.0 | 2.15 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| N. Pts. #6 JV/ Composite Fleet | Skipper | A | 2 | 1.0 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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