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North Points #2 - JV/Composite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 River Bluff High School River Bluff High School Composite Red 10 22 32
2 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV Blue 28 19 47
3 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White 36 11 47
4 Raleigh Charter High School Raleigh Charter High School JV 28 39 67
5 First Flight High School First Flight High School Nighthawks JVC 31 38 69
6 North Carolina School of Science & Math North Carolina School of Science & Math North Carolina of S 24 48 72
7 Ben Lippen School Ben Lippen School Falcons 40 33 73
8 Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 38 52 90
9 Chapin High School Chapin High School JV-Composite 46 46 92
10 Green Hope High School Green Hope High School JV 55 46 101
11 New Hanover High School New Hanover High School Wildcats 62 42 104
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
River Bluff High School River Bluff High School Composite Red 1 4 2 1 1 1 10 Anna Kate Horton '25
Mathew Hassinger '29
North Carolina School of Science & Math North Carolina School of Science & Math North Carolina of S 9 1 1 3 6 4 24 Sarai Bullock '25
Henry Geddie '27
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV Blue 3 8 4 4 4 5 28 Lee Wehr '25
Abby Lacefield '26
Raleigh Charter High School Raleigh Charter High School JV 5 2 3 8 3 7 28 Victoria Pare '27
Lilliy Boyer Boyer '28
First Flight High School First Flight High School Nighthawks JVC 4 5 9 2 9 2 31 Noah Phillips '28 [1-6]
Seaton Hawpe '29 [1-4]
Autumn Sailor '26 [5-6]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White 6 7 8 5 7 3 36 Petra Humphrey '25
Elizabeth Lennert '25
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 2 10 5 7 2 DNF 38 John Bellissimo '25
Gabriel Fusco '28
Ben Lippen School Ben Lippen School Falcons 8 3 6 9 8 6 40 Haolin Chen '28
Hannah Kromer '29
Chapin High School Chapin High School JV-Composite 11 9 7 6 5 8 46 Noah Sowers '27
Theresa Ziehl '25
Green Hope High School Green Hope High School JV 7 6 11 10 11 10 55 Maxim Gerasimov '28
Alexa Whitworth '28
New Hanover High School New Hanover High School Wildcats 10 DNF 10 11 10 9 62 Lucian Lerose '27
Reaves Wilson '28
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White 2 3 3 1 1 1 11 Gavin Crowell '28
Jonah Ridout '28
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV Blue 5 4 2 4 2 2 19 Robin Diederich '29
Lawson Kievit '27
River Bluff High School River Bluff High School Composite Red 4 7 1 2 5 3 22 Scott Thomas '26
Cecelia Stewart '25
Ben Lippen School Ben Lippen School Falcons 3 6 9 7 3 5 33 Zihao Feng '28
Thomas Lyu '27
First Flight High School First Flight High School Nighthawks JVC 1 1 11 11 4 10 38 Eva Randolph '29 [1-6]
Autumn Sailor '26 [1-2]
Leon Sallida '25 [3-6]
Raleigh Charter High School Raleigh Charter High School JV 7 5 4 5 9 9 39 Aaron Vanmatre '27
Dani Mendoza '28
New Hanover High School New Hanover High School Wildcats 11 11 5 3 8 4 42 Thomas Dombroski '29
Sam Hemingway '27
Chapin High School Chapin High School JV-Composite 8 8 6 6 10 8 46 Logan Mosley '27
George Shaw '27
Green Hope High School Green Hope High School JV 9 9 7 8 7 6 46 Sammy Munson '25
Chengxiu Ji '28
North Carolina School of Science & Math North Carolina School of Science & Math North Carolina of S 6 10 10 9 6 7 48 Colin Jee '26
No Show
Lake Norman High School Lake Norman High School Wildcats 10 2 8 10 11 11 52 Carson Stewart '28
Austin Gerst '29
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Ben Lippen SchoolBen Lippen School Falcons254125412541254125412541
Chapin High SchoolChapin High School JV-Composite476347634763476347634763
River Bluff High SchoolRiver Bluff High School Composite Red407440744074407440744074
First Flight High SchoolFirst Flight High School Nighthawks JVC600660066006600660066006
Green Hope High SchoolGreen Hope High School JV181818181818
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV Blue941294129412941294129412
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White941194119411941194119411
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats999999
New Hanover High SchoolNew Hanover High School Wildcats941094109410941094109410
North Carolina School of Science & MathNorth Carolina School of Science & Math North Carolina of S111111111111111111
Raleigh Charter High SchoolRaleigh Charter High School JV545454545454

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Ben Lippen SchoolBen Lippen School Falcons254125412541254125412541
Chapin High SchoolChapin High School JV-Composite476347634763476347634763
River Bluff High SchoolRiver Bluff High School Composite Red407440744074407440744074
First Flight High SchoolFirst Flight High School Nighthawks JVC600660066006600660066006
Green Hope High SchoolGreen Hope High School JV181818181818
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV Blue941294129412941294129412
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings JV White941194119411941194119411
Lake Norman High SchoolLake Norman High School Wildcats999999
New Hanover High SchoolNew Hanover High School Wildcats941094109410941094109410
North Carolina School of Science & MathNorth Carolina School of Science & Math North Carolina of S111111111111111111
Raleigh Charter High SchoolRaleigh Charter High School JV545454545454

Conditions — 10/19/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1031.8 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 70°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.9 kn
avg  ·  max 6.1 kn
Gusts to 14.0 kn
From NNE (14°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.4 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1031.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 7 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Raleigh Charter: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.13 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.01
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.46 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Raleigh Charter by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 2 labelled days at Raleigh Charter, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →