North Points #1 (JV/Composite)

HostPine Lake Prep
Date10/11/2025
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 1	23	13	36
2	John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 2	31	17	48
3	Eagles	Eagles	22	64	86
4	Raleigh Charter High School	JV	37	63	100
5	James Island Charter High School	Varsity	60	42	102
6	Green Hope High School	JV	68	41	109
7	Hough High School	Huskies	75	50	125
8	River Bluff High School	Composite Red	52	81	133
9	Pine Lake Prep	Composite	100	100	200

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Eagles	Eagles	1	3	2	3	3	6	1	1	1	1	22
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 1	DSQ	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2	23	Robin Diederich '29 Kingston Olds '27
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 2	2	2	3	2	5	4	4	3	3	3	31	Jack Christenson '26 Davis Beatty '27
Raleigh Charter High School	JV	3	6	4	4	2	2	3	4	4	5	37	Victoria Pare '27 Aaron Vanmatre '27
River Bluff High School	Composite Red	5	5	6	6	4	3	6	5	6	6	52	George Shaw '27 Baileymarie Swain '29
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	4	4	5	DNF	8	8	5	7	5	4	60	Max Rieger '28 [1-10] Isabelle Stewart '29 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Olivia Frisch '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Green Hope High School	JV	6	7	8	7	7	5	8	6	7	7	68	Chengxiu Ji '28 Maxim Gerasimov '28
Hough High School	Huskies	7	8	7	5	6	7	7	8	DNS	DNS	75	Ally Niekro '28 [1-10] Callie Kraft '27 [1-2, 7-8] Daria Koneva '28 [3-6, 9-10]
Pine Lake Prep	Composite	DSQ	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	100	Chase Norman '30 Eve Martin '29

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 1	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	1	1	2	13	Gavin Crowell '28 Lawson Kievit '27
John T. Hoggard High School	Vikings Varsity 2	2	2	1	2	2	2	1	2	2	1	17	Carlisle Janney '28 Jonah Ridout '28
Green Hope High School	JV	4	5	5	5	3	4	4	5	3	3	41	Jack Boucher '26 Josh Vanmatre '30
James Island Charter High School	Varsity	3	3	4	4	7	7	3	3	4	4	42	Lance Rieger '28 Miles Beightol '29
Hough High School	Huskies	5	4	3	3	5	3	DNS	4	5	8	50	Nash Beshears '27 Sean Mcdonald '27
Raleigh Charter High School	JV	7	6	7	6	6	8	6	6	6	5	63	Colin Jee '26 Jackson Del Gaizo '29
Eagles	Eagles	6	DSQ	6	7	4	5	5	7	7	7	64
River Bluff High School	Composite Red	DSQ	DNS	8	8	8	6	7	DNF	8	6	81	Jackson Tidwell '29 Luke Barnette '29
Pine Lake Prep	Composite	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	100	No Show No Show

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.330+0.33

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Eagles Eagles	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
River Bluff High School Composite Red	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Green Hope High School JV	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53
Hough High School Huskies	151	151	151	151	151	151	151	151	151	151
James Island Charter High School Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413
Pine Lake Prep Composite	171	171	171	171	171	171	171	171	171	171
Raleigh Charter High School JV	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Eagles Eagles	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
River Bluff High School Composite Red	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Green Hope High School JV	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53	53
Hough High School Huskies	151	151	151	151	151	151	151	151	151	151
James Island Charter High School Varsity	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411	9411
John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413	9413
Pine Lake Prep Composite	171	171	171	171	171	171	171	171	171	171
Raleigh Charter High School JV	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111	111

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Green Hope High School	Chengxiu Ji '28	Maxim Gerasimov '28
JV	Jack Boucher '26	Josh Vanmatre '30
Hough High School	Ally Niekro '28 [1-10]	Callie Kraft '27 [1-2, 7-8] Daria Koneva '28 [3-6, 9-10]
Huskies	Nash Beshears '27	Sean Mcdonald '27
James Island Charter High School	Max Rieger '28 [1-10]	Isabelle Stewart '29 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Olivia Frisch '27 [3-4, 7-8]
Varsity	Lance Rieger '28	Miles Beightol '29
John T. Hoggard High School	Robin Diederich '29	Kingston Olds '27
Vikings Varsity 1	Gavin Crowell '28	Lawson Kievit '27
John T. Hoggard High School	Jack Christenson '26	Davis Beatty '27
Vikings Varsity 2	Carlisle Janney '28	Jonah Ridout '28
Pine Lake Prep	Chase Norman '30	Eve Martin '29
Composite	No Show	No Show
Raleigh Charter High School	Victoria Pare '27	Aaron Vanmatre '27
JV	Colin Jee '26	Jackson Del Gaizo '29
River Bluff High School	George Shaw '27	Baileymarie Swain '29
Composite Red	Jackson Tidwell '29	Luke Barnette '29

Conditions — 10/11/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 68% · Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

61°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 53°F

Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.2 kn

avg · max 11.6 kn

Gusts to 23.1 kn

From NNE (25°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine1.7 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1017.4 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 10 kn · NE 12 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Pine Lake Prep: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.17 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.19

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.20 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pine Lake Prep by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Pine Lake Prep, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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