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2024 NP3 (JV/Composite)

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Chapin High School Chapin High School Varsity Sailing 14 23 37
2 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2 18 36 54
3 John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1 38 16 54
4 Eugene Ashley High School Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles 32 52 84
5 Lake Norman Charter Lake Norman Charter Lake Norman Charter 47 40 87
6 First Flight High School First Flight High School Nighthawks JVC 22 67 89
7 New Hanover High School New Hanover High School Wildcats 43 46 89
8 North Carolina of S North Carolina of S North Carolina of S 41 48 89
9 James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 54 39 93
10 Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers 75 22 97
11 Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School Waccamaw Warriors 55 49 104
12 Raleigh Charter High School Raleigh Charter High School JV 53 53 106
13 Fighting Irish Fighting Irish Fighting Irish 58 56 114
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Chapin High School Chapin High School Varsity Sailing 6 2 3 1 1 1 14 Anna Kate Horton '25
Mathew Hassinger '29
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2 3 1 1 2 2 9 18 Olivia Burdette '25
Lawson Kievit '27
First Flight High School First Flight High School Nighthawks JVC 5 4 2 6 3 2 22 Noah Phillips '28 [1-6]
Seaton Hawpe '29 [1-3, 5-6]
Leon Sallida '25 [4]
Eugene Ashley High School Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles 2 3 OCS 5 5 3 32 Lola Joh '29 [1-6]
Violet Derry '27 [1-3]
Elsa Stinson '28 [4-6]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1 8 6 8 4 6 6 38 Petra Humphrey '25
Miles Devoid '25
North Carolina of S North Carolina of S North Carolina of S 9 8 9 7 4 4 41
New Hanover High School New Hanover High School Wildcats 7 9 11 3 8 5 43 Lucian Lerose '27 [1-3]
Jack Reuter '25 [4-6]
Jack Reuter '25 [1-3]
Lucian Lerose '27 [4-6]
Lake Norman Charter Lake Norman Charter Lake Norman Charter 1 7 5 13 7 DNF 47 Maggie Gross '25 [1-3, 5-6]
Austin Gerst '29 [4]
Jacob Nabti '30 [1-3]
Jackson Anter '27 [4]
Austin Gerst '29 [5-6]
Raleigh Charter High School Raleigh Charter High School JV 12 10 4 8 12 7 53 Jack Boucher '26
Aaron Vanmatre '27
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 11 11 6 9 9 8 54 Jacob Folk '29
Isabelle Stewart '29
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School Waccamaw Warriors 10 5 7 12 10 11 55 Virginia (Gg) Smith '26 [1-6]
Lucas Sellers '28 [1-3]
Liam Crosby '28 [4-6]
Fighting Irish Fighting Irish Fighting Irish 4 13 10 10 11 10 58
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers 13 12 12 11 13 DNF 75 Avery Steele '28 [1-6]
Olivia Skoub '26 [1-3]
Elena Hollister '26 [4-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1 3 2 1 3 3 4 16 Gavin Crowell '28 [1-3]
Robin Diederich '29 [4-6]
Jonah Ridout '28 [1-3]
Elizabeth Lennert '25 [4-6]
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Panthers 2 3 11 4 1 1 22 Marion Smith '29 [1-6]
Pippa Taylor '29 [1-3, 5-6]
Gabby Falk '26 [4]
Chapin High School Chapin High School Varsity Sailing 6 6 3 1 5 2 23 Theresa Ziehl '25 [1-6]
George Shaw '27 [1-3]
Shivann Patel '28 [4-6]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2 4 1 2 9 8 12 36 Lee Wehr '25 [1-4]
Abby Lacefield '26 [5-6]
Abby Lacefield '26 [1-3]
Sam Hemingway '27 [4-6]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Varsity 13 10 5 6 2 3 39 Thomas Bearden '27
Charlie Bell '25
Lake Norman Charter Lake Norman Charter Lake Norman Charter 5 4 7 5 6 13 40 No Show [1-4]
Ally Niekro '28 [5-6]
Brinley Deatley '28 [1-4]
New Hanover High School New Hanover High School Wildcats 7 7 6 7 OCS 5 46 Thomas Dombroski '29
Johnathan Duncan '29
North Carolina of S North Carolina of S North Carolina of S 9 9 8 2 10 10 48
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School Waccamaw Warriors 11 8 9 8 7 6 49 Chase Fidgeon '27 [1-6]
Collin Nalley '25 [1-3]
Duncan Rutherford '28 [4]
Ainsley Coffey '29 [5-6]
Eugene Ashley High School Eugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles 12 12 4 12 4 8 52 Nate Wright '29 [1-6]
Ethan Olivier '28 [1-3]
Liam Ferree '28 [4-6]
Raleigh Charter High School Raleigh Charter High School JV 8 5 12 10 9 9 53 Victoria Pare '27 [1-6]
Graham Robbins '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Dani Mendoza '28 [3-4]
Fighting Irish Fighting Irish Fighting Irish 1 11 10 11 12 11 56
First Flight High School First Flight High School Nighthawks JVC 10 13 13 13 11 7 67 Eva Randolph '29 [1-6]
Autumn Sailor '26 [1-4]
Leon Sallida '25 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2024 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Fighting IrishFighting Irish Fighting Irish444444
Ashley HallAshley Hall Panthers845184518451845184518451
Chapin High SchoolChapin High School Varsity Sailing254125412541254125412541
Eugene Ashley High SchoolEugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles941394139413941394139413
First Flight High SchoolFirst Flight High School Nighthawks JVC600660066006600660066006
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity777777777777
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1941194119411941194119411
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2941294129412941294129412
Lake Norman CharterLake Norman Charter Lake Norman Charter515151515151
New Hanover High SchoolNew Hanover High School Wildcats941094109410941094109410
North Carolina of SNorth Carolina of S North Carolina of S111111111111111111
Raleigh Charter High SchoolRaleigh Charter High School JV545454545454
Waccamaw High SchoolWaccamaw High School Waccamaw Warriors555555

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Fighting IrishFighting Irish Fighting Irish444444
Ashley HallAshley Hall Panthers845184518451845184518451
Chapin High SchoolChapin High School Varsity Sailing254125412541254125412541
Eugene Ashley High SchoolEugene Ashley High School Screaming Eagles941394139413941394139413
First Flight High SchoolFirst Flight High School Nighthawks JVC600660066006600660066006
James Island Charter High SchoolJames Island Charter High School Varsity777777777777
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 1941194119411941194119411
John T. Hoggard High SchoolJohn T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity 2941294129412941294129412
Lake Norman CharterLake Norman Charter Lake Norman Charter515151515151
New Hanover High SchoolNew Hanover High School Wildcats941094109410941094109410
North Carolina of SNorth Carolina of S North Carolina of S111111111111111111
Raleigh Charter High SchoolRaleigh Charter High School JV545454545454
Waccamaw High SchoolWaccamaw High School Waccamaw Warriors555555
School / Team SkipperCrew
Ashley Hall Ashley Hall Avery Steele '28 [1-6] Olivia Skoub '26 [1-3]
Elena Hollister '26 [4-6]
Panthers Marion Smith '29 [1-6] Pippa Taylor '29 [1-3, 5-6]
Gabby Falk '26 [4]
Chapin High School Chapin High School Anna Kate Horton '25 Mathew Hassinger '29
Varsity Sailing Theresa Ziehl '25 [1-6] George Shaw '27 [1-3]
Shivann Patel '28 [4-6]
Eugene Ashley High School Eugene Ashley High School Lola Joh '29 [1-6] Violet Derry '27 [1-3]
Elsa Stinson '28 [4-6]
Screaming Eagles Nate Wright '29 [1-6] Ethan Olivier '28 [1-3]
Liam Ferree '28 [4-6]
First Flight High School First Flight High School Noah Phillips '28 [1-6] Seaton Hawpe '29 [1-3, 5-6]
Leon Sallida '25 [4]
Nighthawks JVC Eva Randolph '29 [1-6] Autumn Sailor '26 [1-4]
Leon Sallida '25 [5-6]
James Island Charter High School James Island Charter High School Jacob Folk '29 Isabelle Stewart '29
Varsity Thomas Bearden '27 Charlie Bell '25
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Petra Humphrey '25 Miles Devoid '25
Vikings Varsity 1 Gavin Crowell '28 [1-3]
Robin Diederich '29 [4-6]		 Jonah Ridout '28 [1-3]
Elizabeth Lennert '25 [4-6]
John T. Hoggard High School John T. Hoggard High School Olivia Burdette '25 Lawson Kievit '27
Vikings Varsity 2 Lee Wehr '25 [1-4]
Abby Lacefield '26 [5-6]		 Abby Lacefield '26 [1-3]
Sam Hemingway '27 [4-6]
Lake Norman Charter Lake Norman Charter Maggie Gross '25 [1-3, 5-6]
Austin Gerst '29 [4]		 Jacob Nabti '30 [1-3]
Jackson Anter '27 [4]
Austin Gerst '29 [5-6]
Lake Norman Charter No Show [1-4]
Ally Niekro '28 [5-6]		 Brinley Deatley '28 [1-4]
New Hanover High School New Hanover High School Lucian Lerose '27 [1-3]
Jack Reuter '25 [4-6]		 Jack Reuter '25 [1-3]
Lucian Lerose '27 [4-6]
Wildcats Thomas Dombroski '29 Johnathan Duncan '29
Raleigh Charter High School Raleigh Charter High School Jack Boucher '26 Aaron Vanmatre '27
JV Victoria Pare '27 [1-6] Graham Robbins '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Dani Mendoza '28 [3-4]
Waccamaw High School Waccamaw High School Virginia (Gg) Smith '26 [1-6] Lucas Sellers '28 [1-3]
Liam Crosby '28 [4-6]
Waccamaw Warriors Chase Fidgeon '27 [1-6] Collin Nalley '25 [1-3]
Duncan Rutherford '28 [4]
Ainsley Coffey '29 [5-6]

Conditions — 11/16/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 78%  ·  Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

43°F
↑ 47°F   ↓ 35°F
Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.8 kn
avg  ·  max 8.4 kn
Gusts to 16.9 kn
From SE (145°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1018.7 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 8 kn* · NW 5 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Emsley A Laney/Eugene Ashley/John T. Hoggard/New Hanover: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.07 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Emsley A Laney/Eugene Ashley/John T. Hoggard/New Hanover by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Emsley A Laney/Eugene Ashley/John T. Hoggard/New Hanover, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →