| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Immaculata La Salle High School | Royal Lions | 7–1 |
| 2 |  |
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | 5–3 |
| 3 |  |
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | 4–4 |
| 4 |  |
Antilles School | Hurricanes | 4–4 |
| 5 |  |
John T. Hoggard High School | Vikings Varsity | 0–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 8,602 team race matches sailed before 2022-05-07, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 16 of 20 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.363 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.27 ± 0.56: a typical event, more orderly than 60% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Immaculata La Salle High School | 9.06 | 10.02 | 7–1 | 6.2 | +0.96 | 0.4 | 43% |
| 3 | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 7.43 | 7.63 | 4–4 | 3.8 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 4 | Antilles School | 7.86 | 7.56 | 4–4 | 4.3 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2 | Ransom Everglades School | 8.56 | 8.24 | 5–3 | 5.4 | −0.32 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 5 | John T. Hoggard High School | 4.00 | 1.00 | 0–8 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Rianno | Immaculata La Salle High School | 1.70 | 4.70 | 4–0 | 3.5 | ≥+3.00 | 0.8 | 54% |
| Mary (Lucy) Meagher | St. Thomas Aquinas High School | 1.84 | 2.04 | 4–4 | 3.8 | +0.20 | 0.0 | 58% |
| Winn Majette | Antilles School | 1.82 | 1.53 | 4–4 | 4.3 | −0.29 | 0.1 | 75% |
| Ben Usher | John T. Hoggard High School | 1.39 | -1.61 | 0–8 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Danny Diederich | John T. Hoggard High School | 0.92 | -2.08 | 0–6 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 DNF,DNF |
| 14 | |
Royal Lions | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Royal Lions | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 19 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Vikings Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 20 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 1 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Hurricanes | 1-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Royal Lions | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Vikings Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 3 | |
Hurricanes | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Royal Lions | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Royal Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Royal Lions | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Hurricanes | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Vikings Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Raiders | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Immaculata La Salle High School | Royal Lions | Danny Rianno '23 Justin Callahan '22 Mitchell Callahan '22 Umi Noritake '24 |
Umi Noritake '24 Danny Rianno '23 Brianna Ross '22 Caroline Caudron '23 |
|
Ransom Everglades School | Raiders | Griggs Diemar '25 Jackson Mcaliley '23 Stephan Baker '22 |
Emery Diemar '24 Boris Bialer '22 Livia Herman '22 |
|
St. Thomas Aquinas High School | Raiders | Cody Roe '25 Jack Redmond '22 Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23 |
Cole Fanchi '26 Kevin Gosselin '23 Kj Hill '25 Parker Bustamante '25 |
|
Antilles School | Hurricanes | Caroline Sibilly '22 Tanner Krygsveld '25 Winn Majette '23 |
Jj Knowles '22 Katherine Majette '23 Megan Cassidy '22 Caitlin Briggs '23 |
|
John T. Hoggard High School | Vikings Varsity | Ben Usher '23 Danny Diederich '23 Petra Humphrey '25 Tavia Smith '23 |
Hans Westermark '25 Francis (Mac) Humphrey '22 Danny Diederich '23 Jamie Keener '22 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
