SAISA South Points #2 Varsity

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 17 18 35
2 Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 24 19 43
3 Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 28 21 49
4 Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 20 39 59
5 Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 31 29 60
6 St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 40 25 65
7 Palmer Trinity School Palmer Trinity School Flacons 35 31 66
8 H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 35 33 68
9 Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 39 36 75
10 The Pine School The Pine School Knights 33 55 88
11 Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 39 54 93
12 Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers 63 35 98
13 Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 52 60 112
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 7 1 4 2 3 17 Jack Redmond '22 [1-5]
Ava Meshel '24 [1-4]
Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23 [5]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 4 2 3 1 10 20 Guthrie Braun '22 [1-5]
Ainsley Braun '25 [1-2, 5]
Bella Testa '23 [3-4]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 3 3 11 6 1 24 Jackson Mcaliley '23 [1-2, 5]
Olivia Drulard '23 [3-4]
Livia Herman '22 [1-2, 5]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 2 7 7 3 9 28 Cort Snyder '23
Madeline Hughes '22
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions DNS 5 1 5 6 31 Mitchell Callahan '22
Brianna Ross '22
The Pine School The Pine School Knights 5 11 2 4 11 33 Peter Foley '22
Michael Blotnick '23
Palmer Trinity School Palmer Trinity School Flacons 1 6 5 11 12 35 Brayden Benesch '24
Carlos Roig '24
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 11 4 9 9 2 35 Reid Nelson '23
Johnathan Pittman '22
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 9 9 10 7 4 39 William Kulas '24
Grant Schmidt '24
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 10 8 8 8 5 39 Stan Ross '24
Meave Mullen '23
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 6 10 6 10 8 40 Sidney Moyer '23
Dorothy Mendelblatt '24
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 8 12 12 13 7 52 Keegan Mackinnon '23
Kyle Weiksnar '25
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers 12 13 13 12 13 63 Ryan Kronrad '22 [1-5]
Jake Julien '24 [1-2, 5]
Thomas Yevoli '23 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders 7 1 2 6 2 18 Kj Hill '25 [1-5]
Martha Dwyer '23 [1-4]
Kelly Coyne '22 [5]
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Raiders 1 4 1 3 10 19 Emery Diemar '24 [1-2]
Ian Fox '24 [3-5]
Eva Gonzalez '22 [1-2]
Boris Bialer '22 [3-5]
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders 2 2 8 4 5 21 Leo Seuss '23
Dante Garcia '24
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Green Devils 4 5 7 5 4 25 Bella Shakespeare '23
Dluzneski Luke '24
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions 9 7 4 1 8 29 Umi Noritake '24
Danny Rianno '23
Palmer Trinity School Palmer Trinity School Flacons 13 10 5 2 1 31 Ryan Keenan '24
Reece Weber '24
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Panthers 5 6 9 7 6 33 Garrett Brooks '22
Elliot Francola '23
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Panthers 3 9 6 8 9 35 Bella Casaretto '22
Molly Schlesinger '23
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves 8 11 3 11 3 36 Will Dimaio '22
Zan Checetto '22
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Chargers 6 3 13 10 7 39 Kate Danielson '24 [1-4]
Ethan Danielson '22 [5]
Morgan Shirey '24 [1-4]
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School Falcons 10 12 11 9 12 54 Elizabeth Wire '24
Matt Baer '25
The Pine School The Pine School Knights 11 8 12 13 11 55 Audrey Foley '24 [1-5]
Tanner Spurlin '23 [1-2, 5]
Josh Lacorte '24 [3-4]
Martin County High School Martin County High School Tigers 12 13 10 12 13 60 Stevan Weiss '23
Heidi Weiksnar '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2021 (6 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders11111
Immaculata La Salle High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions33333
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons44444
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers55555
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves66666
Palmer Trinity SchoolPalmer Trinity School Flacons77777
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Panthers88888
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers22222
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders99999
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders1212121212
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers1010101010
St. Petersburg High SchoolSt. Petersburg High School Green Devils1111111111
The Pine SchoolThe Pine School Knights1313131313

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Gulliver Preparatory SchoolGulliver Preparatory School Raiders11111
Immaculata La Salle High SchoolImmaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions33333
Jensen Beach High SchoolJensen Beach High School Falcons44444
Martin County High SchoolMartin County High School Tigers55555
Oxbridge AcademyOxbridge Academy ThunderWolves66666
Palmer Trinity SchoolPalmer Trinity School Flacons77777
Pine Crest SchoolPine Crest School Panthers88888
H. B. Plant High SchoolH. B. Plant High School Panthers22222
Ransom Everglades SchoolRansom Everglades School Raiders99999
St. Thomas Aquinas High SchoolSt. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders1212121212
Shorecrest Preparatory SchoolShorecrest Preparatory School Chargers1010101010
St. Petersburg High SchoolSt. Petersburg High School Green Devils1111111111
The Pine SchoolThe Pine School Knights1313131313
School / Team SkipperCrew
Gulliver Preparatory School Gulliver Preparatory School Cort Snyder '23 Madeline Hughes '22
Raiders Leo Seuss '23 Dante Garcia '24
H. B. Plant High School H. B. Plant High School Reid Nelson '23 Johnathan Pittman '22
Panthers Garrett Brooks '22 Elliot Francola '23
Immaculata La Salle High School Immaculata La Salle High School Mitchell Callahan '22 Brianna Ross '22
Royal Lions Umi Noritake '24 Danny Rianno '23
Jensen Beach High School Jensen Beach High School William Kulas '24 Grant Schmidt '24
Falcons Elizabeth Wire '24 Matt Baer '25
Martin County High School Martin County High School Keegan Mackinnon '23 Kyle Weiksnar '25
Tigers Stevan Weiss '23 Heidi Weiksnar '23
Oxbridge Academy Oxbridge Academy Stan Ross '24 Meave Mullen '23
ThunderWolves Will Dimaio '22 Zan Checetto '22
Palmer Trinity School Palmer Trinity School Brayden Benesch '24 Carlos Roig '24
Flacons Ryan Keenan '24 Reece Weber '24
Pine Crest School Pine Crest School Ryan Kronrad '22 [1-5] Jake Julien '24 [1-2, 5]
Thomas Yevoli '23 [3-4]
Panthers Bella Casaretto '22 Molly Schlesinger '23
Ransom Everglades School Ransom Everglades School Jackson Mcaliley '23 [1-2, 5]
Olivia Drulard '23 [3-4]
Livia Herman '22 [1-2, 5]
Raiders Emery Diemar '24 [1-2]
Ian Fox '24 [3-5]
Eva Gonzalez '22 [1-2]
Boris Bialer '22 [3-5]
Shorecrest Preparatory School Shorecrest Preparatory School Guthrie Braun '22 [1-5] Ainsley Braun '25 [1-2, 5]
Bella Testa '23 [3-4]
Chargers Kate Danielson '24 [1-4]
Ethan Danielson '22 [5]
Morgan Shirey '24 [1-4]
St. Petersburg High School St. Petersburg High School Sidney Moyer '23 Dorothy Mendelblatt '24
Green Devils Bella Shakespeare '23 Dluzneski Luke '24
St. Thomas Aquinas High School St. Thomas Aquinas High School Jack Redmond '22 [1-5] Ava Meshel '24 [1-4]
Mary (Lucy) Meagher '23 [5]
Raiders Kj Hill '25 [1-5] Martha Dwyer '23 [1-4]
Kelly Coyne '22 [5]
The Pine School The Pine School Peter Foley '22 Michael Blotnick '23
Knights Audrey Foley '24 [1-5] Tanner Spurlin '23 [1-2, 5]
Josh Lacorte '24 [3-4]

Conditions — 10/23/2021 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 79%  ·  Pressure 1015.5 hPa

Temperature

79°F
↑ 81°F   ↓ 77°F
Feels like 85°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 9.0 kn
Gusts to 16.7 kn
From ENE (64°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine4.8 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1015.5 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Jensen Beach: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.14)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.05 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.09
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.11 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jensen Beach by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Jensen Beach, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →