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Chesapeake Invitational (Sat)

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 38 38
2 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 40 40
3 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 42 42
4 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 58 58
5 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 64 64
6 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 65 65
7 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 66 66
8 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 68 68
9 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 71 71
10 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 73 73
11 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 74 74
12 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 83 83
13 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 85 85
14 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 102 102
15 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 102 102
16 George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 105 105
17 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 116 116
18 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 117 117
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 1 2 3 3 1 5 5 8 11 38 Andrew Sheerin '19
Tanner Chapko '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 8 7 1 5 10 3 2 4 40 Andy Reiter '19
Claire Mohun '19
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 4 5 8 4 1 1 16 3 42 Sean Segerblom '20
Rebecca Fung '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 7 1 16 3 2 6 10 13 58 Jc Hermus '22
Kelly Milliken '21
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 11 15 5 2 7 15 1 8 64 William Logue '20
Caroline Teare '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 1 2 2 6 17 14 17 6 65 Liam Mccarthy '19
Kaisey Mccallion '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 15 9 11 14 8 4 3 2 66 Parker Loftus '20
Kent Mathes '20
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 17 8 4 10 3 18 7 1 68 Maxwell Brill '20
Sally Johnson '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 14 10 6 7 13 7 4 10 71 Lewis Cooper '21
Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 3 4 10 12 6 13 6 RAF 73 Connor Bayless '21
Ana Mier '19
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 6 14 9 13 4 9 5 14 74 Jack Reiter '22
Jack Hogan '22
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 13 16 7 11 9 2 13 12 83 Jack Elkin '19
Stephen Guglielmo '19
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 16 12 13 8 11 11 9 5 85 Leo Boucher '22
Ashley Wagner '20
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 5 13 14 15 15 12 11 17 102 Dreugh Phillips '21
Gavin Burkhart '20
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 3 10 17 15 17 14 8 12 9 102 Aitana Mendiguren '20
Sarah Noyes '20
George Washington University George Washington University Colonials 2 12 11 17 18 16 10 14 7 105 Derek Poon Tip '19
Mercedes Mcphee '19
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 3 9 18 18 9 12 16 18 16 116 Olivia Windemuller '19
Emily Harrison '21
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 18 6 12 16 18 17 15 15 117 Katherine Bennett '22 [1-4]
Joshua Paper '20 [5-8]
Allison Gingerich '21 [1-4]
Sophia Taczak '21 [5-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2017 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 111111111
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 222222222
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Colonials 333333333
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 144444444
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 255555555
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 366666666
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 477777777
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 11515151515151515
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 21616161616161616
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 31717171717171717
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 41818181818181818
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 188888888
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 299999999
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs 31010101010101010
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 11111111111111111
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 21212121212121212
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 31313131313131313
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 41414141414141414

Conditions — 09/15/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1019.8 hPa

Temperature

77°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 80°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.6 kn
avg  ·  max 12.8 kn
Gusts to 27.0 kn
From ENE (70°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine5.3 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1019.8 hPa Rain0.10 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 8 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at St. Mary's: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.21 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.17
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.20 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →