Team Race Challenge

HostCornell
Date03/30/2019
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Cornell University	Big Red	15–2
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	14–3
3	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	11–6
4	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	10–7
5	SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	6–8
6	Christopher Newport University	Captains	4–10
7	Villanova University	Wildcats	2–12
8	Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	0–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 13,225 team race matches sailed before 2019-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 58 of 62 matches (94%) with a log-loss of 0.247 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.34 ± 0.24: an orderly event, more orderly than 79% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Cornell University Big Red	2	9.49 school +0.17, home +0.38	Clark Uhl / Adeline Sutton 3.44 Gabby Rizika / Ana Schonander 13–2 Phillip Schofield / Kimberly Wong 2.89 13–2 Daisy Holthus / Ana Schonander 2–0 Alex Fowkes / Kimberly Wong 2.25 2–0	84%	15–2 (88%)	+0.7
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	1	9.67 school +0.40	Liam Mccarthy / Kaisey Mccallion 3.27 Joshua Paper / Kate Bjerregaard 2.83 Lewis Cooper / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 3.15	85%	14–3 (82%)	−0.5
3	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3	8.16	Porter Killian / Dana Hackett 2.97 Joseph Laforgia / Meghan Perez 2.89 Tanner Probst / Emelia Bartusiak 2.20	60%	11–6 (65%)	+0.8
4	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	4	7.44 school −0.33	Carrson Pearce / Rachel Beisswenger 3.19 Luke Welker / Eddy Harris 2.51 6–7 Adam Krzeszowski / Kieran Cullen 6–7 Luke Welker / Kieran Cullen 2.52 4–0 Adam Krzeszowski / Rachel Mckenzie 4–0	47%	10–7 (59%)	+2.0
5	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	5	6.82	John Lawless / Skye Miller 2.55 Juan Lejarraga / Christian Neuman 2.43 6–6 Aidan Molesky / Brian Buckley 1.89 4–4 Aidan Molesky / Kaitlin Brzostek 1.90 2–4 William Sesack / Christian Neuman 1.74 0–2	44%	6–8 (43%)	−0.2
6	Christopher Newport University Captains	6	6.68	Javier Gonzalez Rotge / Ian O'Connell 2.53 Vir Menon / Ethan Caldwell 2.40 Bailey Hurst / Anna Patterson 1.76 4–6 Bailey Hurst / Henry Clune 1.68 0–4	40%	4–10 (29%)	−1.6
7	Villanova University Wildcats	7	5.36	Curtis Aaron / Kathryn Miller Owen Ward / Jack Murray Max Gillette / Cameron Hunter 2–10 Max Gillette / Dylan Crider 0–2	22%	2–12 (14%)	−1.1
8	Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	8	2.31	Townsend Morey / Adilah Khan Sean Jahnige / Andrew Deutsch Alex Wiggins / Reilly Fitzgerald	1%	0–14 (0%)	−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	7.44	8.28	10–7	8.0	+0.85	1.2	15%
1	Cornell University	9.49	9.94	15–2	14.3	+0.45	0.2	45%
3	University of Pennsylvania	8.16	8.50	11–6	10.2	+0.34	0.2	43%
5	SUNY Maritime College	6.82	6.72	6–8	6.2	−0.10	0.0	69%
2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9.67	9.38	14–3	14.5	−0.29	0.1	79%
6	Christopher Newport University	6.68	5.66	4–10	5.6	−1.02	1.1	95%
7	Villanova University	5.36	3.95	2–12	3.1	−1.41	1.0	97%
8	Stevens Institute of Technology	2.31	-0.69	0–14	0.2	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Carrson Pearce	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	3.19	4.04	10–7	8.0	+0.85	1.2	15%
Adam Krzeszowski	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	1.97	2.82	10–7	8.0	+0.85	1.2	15%
Clark Uhl	Cornell University	3.44	3.89	15–2	14.3	+0.45	0.2	45%
Gabby Rizika	Cornell University	2.46	2.91	13–2	12.3	+0.45	0.2	45%
Joseph Laforgia	University of Pennsylvania	2.89	3.23	11–6	10.2	+0.34	0.2	43%
Juan Lejarraga	SUNY Maritime College	2.43	2.36	6–6	6.1	−0.07	0.0	68%
Aidan Molesky	SUNY Maritime College	1.89	1.80	6–8	6.2	−0.10	0.0	69%
John Lawless	SUNY Maritime College	2.55	2.45	6–8	6.2	−0.10	0.0	69%
Joshua Paper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	2.83	2.54	14–3	14.5	−0.29	0.1	79%
Lewis Cooper	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.15	2.85	14–3	14.5	−0.29	0.1	79%
Javier Gonzalez Rotge	Christopher Newport University	2.53	1.51	4–10	5.6	−1.02	1.1	95%
Vir Menon	Christopher Newport University	2.40	1.37	4–10	5.6	−1.02	1.1	95%
Bailey Hurst	Christopher Newport University	1.76	0.74	4–10	5.6	−1.02	1.1	95%
Alex Wiggins	Stevens Institute of Technology	0.56	-2.44	0–14	0.2	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	SUNY Maritime College	Christopher Newport University	57%
1	2	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	88%
1	3	University of Pennsylvania	Stevens Institute of Technology	100%
1	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Villanova University	99%
1	5	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	93%
1	6	University of Pennsylvania	Christopher Newport University	82%
1	7	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Villanova University	90%
1	8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stevens Institute of Technology	100%
1	9	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	80%
1	10	SUNY Maritime College	Villanova University	85%
1	11	Christopher Newport University	Stevens Institute of Technology	99%
1	12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	9%	upset
1	13	University of Pennsylvania	Villanova University	95%
1	14	Cornell University	Stevens Institute of Technology	100%
1	15	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	SUNY Maritime College	62%
1	16	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Christopher Newport University	95%
1	17	Villanova University	Stevens Institute of Technology	96%
1	18	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	University of Pennsylvania	32%	upset
1	19	Cornell University	Christopher Newport University	94%
1	20	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	97%
1	21	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Stevens Institute of Technology	99%
1	22	Christopher Newport University	Villanova University	79%
1	23	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	77%
1	24	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	47%	upset
1	25	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Christopher Newport University	67%
1	26	SUNY Maritime College	Stevens Institute of Technology	99%
1	27	Cornell University	Villanova University	98%
1	28	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	82%
2	29	SUNY Maritime College	Christopher Newport University	57%
2	30	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	90%
2	31	University of Pennsylvania	Stevens Institute of Technology	100%
2	32	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Villanova University	99%
2	33	Cornell University	SUNY Maritime College	94%
2	34	University of Pennsylvania	Christopher Newport University	82%
2	35	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Villanova University	88%
2	36	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Stevens Institute of Technology	100%
2	37	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	81%
2	38	SUNY Maritime College	Villanova University	81%
2	39	Christopher Newport University	Stevens Institute of Technology	99%
2	40	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	90%
2	41	University of Pennsylvania	Villanova University	94%
2	42	Cornell University	Stevens Institute of Technology	100%
2	43	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	SUNY Maritime College	63%
2	44	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Christopher Newport University	95%
2	45	Villanova University	Stevens Institute of Technology	95%
2	46	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	67%
2	47	Cornell University	Christopher Newport University	95%
2	48	St. Mary's College of Maryland	SUNY Maritime College	97%
2	49	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Stevens Institute of Technology	99%
2	50	Christopher Newport University	Villanova University	77%
2	51	University of Pennsylvania	SUNY Maritime College	78%
2	52	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Cornell University	51%
2	53	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Christopher Newport University	68%
2	54	SUNY Maritime College	Stevens Institute of Technology	99%
2	55	Cornell University	Villanova University	98%
2	56	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	82%
4	57	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	90%
4	58	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	19%	upset
4	59	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	81%
4	60	Cornell University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	90%
4	61	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	67%
4	62	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	50%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Red	Seahawks	Quakers	Mariners	Privateers	Captains	Wildcats	Ducks
Cornell University Big Red	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	5–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	6–1	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Villanova University Wildcats	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Red	Seahawks	Quakers	Mariners	Privateers	Captains	Wildcats	Ducks
Cornell University Big Red	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
SUNY Maritime College Privateers	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Christopher Newport University Captains	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Villanova University Wildcats	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Red	Seahawks	Quakers	Mariners
Cornell University Big Red	2–1	✕	W	L	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–1	L	✕	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–1	W	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
2	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Mariners	2-4-6
3	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Ducks	2-5-6
4	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
5	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
6	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
7	Mariners	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
8	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Ducks	4-5-6
9	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
10	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5
11	Captains	1-2-3	def.	Ducks	4-5-6
12	Mariners	1-3-6	def.	Seahawks	2-4-5
13	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
14	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Ducks	3-4-6
15	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
16	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
17	Wildcats	1-2-5	def.	Ducks	3-4-6
18	Mariners	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
19	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Captains	3-4-5
20	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Privateers	3-4-6
21	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Ducks	3-4-6
22	Captains	1-3-5	def.	Wildcats	2-4-6
23	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
24	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
25	Mariners	1-2-4	def.	Captains	3-5-6
26	Privateers	1-2-6	def.	Ducks	3-4-5
27	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
28	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
29	Privateers	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
30	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Mariners	1-4-6
31	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Ducks	4-5-6
32	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
33	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Privateers	3-5-6
34	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
35	Mariners	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
36	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Ducks	4-5-6
37	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
38	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
39	Captains	1-2-3	def.	Ducks	4-5-6 DNF
40	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
41	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Wildcats	2-5-6
42	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Ducks	4-5-6
43	Mariners	1-2-3	def.	Privateers	4-5-6
44	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Captains	4-5-6
45	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Ducks	4-5-6
46	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Mariners	1-5-6
47	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
48	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
49	Mariners	1-2-4	def.	Ducks	3-5-6
50	Captains	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
51	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Privateers	1-5-6
52	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
53	Mariners	1-2-5	def.	Captains	3-4-6
54	Privateers	1-2-3	def.	Ducks	4-5-6
55	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
56	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
57	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
58	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
59	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
60	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
61	Quakers	1-3-6	def.	Mariners	2-4-5
62	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Cornell University	Big Red	Alex Fowkes '20 Clark Uhl '19 Daisy Holthus '21 Gabby Rizika '20 Phillip Schofield '21	Kimberly Wong '19 Adeline Sutton '21 Ana Schonander '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Joshua Paper '20 Lewis Cooper '21 Liam Mccarthy '19	Kate Bjerregaard '19 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Kaisey Mccallion '19
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Joseph Laforgia '21 Porter Killian '23 Tanner Probst '21	Meghan Perez '22 Dana Hackett '20 Emelia Bartusiak '21
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Adam Krzeszowski '21 Carrson Pearce '21 Luke Welker '21	Kieran Cullen '21 Rachel Mckenzie '22 Rachel Beisswenger '22 Eddy Harris '22
SUNY Maritime College	Privateers	Aidan Molesky '20 John Lawless '19 Juan Lejarraga '19 William Sesack '21	Brian Buckley '21 Kaitlin Brzostek '22 Skye Miller '19 Christian Neuman '21
Christopher Newport University	Captains	Bailey Hurst '20 Javier Gonzalez Rotge '21 Vir Menon '20	Henry Clune '21 Anna Patterson '20 Ian O'Connell '20 Ethan Caldwell '22
Villanova University	Wildcats	Curtis Aaron '21 Max Gillette '20 Owen Ward '22	Kathryn Miller '21 Cameron Hunter '21 Dylan Crider '19 Jack Murray '22
Stevens Institute of Technology	Ducks	Alex Wiggins '22 Sean Jahnige '22 Townsend Morey '21	Reilly Fitzgerald '22 Andrew Deutsch '22 Adilah Khan '20

Conditions — 03/30/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 66% · Pressure 1009.7 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 48°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.8 kn

avg · max 12.7 kn

Gusts to 31.5 kn

From S (173°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover92% Sunshine3.3 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1009.7 hPa Rain0.02 in

What this breeze does at Cornell — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cornell in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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