Villanova University '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.06 (fleet 1.46) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 2–12 (14%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | — | 2–12 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 2–12 against 3.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-30 | Team Race Challenge | crew | 0.83 | -0.58 | 2–12 | 3.1 | −1.41 | 1.0 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Team Race Challenge | Crew | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Southern Collegiate Offshore Regatta (SCOR) B Div Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 5.8 | — |
| Fall 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Early Fall Qualifier | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.8 | 1.10 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Central Spring Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 2.13 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.2 | 1.10 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
