| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Maximilian Guerriero '21 | 26 |
| 2 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Connor Bayless '21 | 27 |
| 3 |  |
Hampton University | Filip Stevanovic '20 | 47 |
| 4 |  |
Georgetown University | Clay Broussard '18 | 65 |
| 5 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Connor Swikart '18 | 71 |
| 6 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Keen Butcher '18 | 72 |
| 7 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Tyler Fleig '19 | 88 |
| 8 |  |
Old Dominion University | John Glenn '22 | 92 |
| 9 |  |
Cornell University | Tom O'Shea '21 | 93 |
| 10 | |
Cornell University | Phillip Schofield '21 | 94 |
| 11 |  |
George Washington University | Adam Didomizio '19 | 105 |
| 12 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Ian Beckley '20 | 106 |
| 13 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Joshua Paper '20 | 110 |
| 14 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Philip Davis '20 | 131 |
| 15 | |
Georgetown University | Jack Hogan '22 | 133 |
| 16 |  |
University of Virginia | Garrett Levy '21 | 142 |
| 17 |  |
Christopher Newport University | Bailey Hurst '20 | 145 |
| 18 |  |
Rochester Institute of Technology | Ian Taylor '18 | 154 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maximilian Guerriero '21 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 | 10/10 | 2.66 | 4.58 | +1.92 | 70th → 99th | 8.6 | 2% | 2.6 / 7.1 |
| 2 | Connor Bayless '21 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 10/10 | 2.73 | 4.50 | +1.77 | 73rd → 99th | 7.6 | 1% | 2.7 / 6.8 |
| 3 | Filip Stevanovic '20 | Hampton University | 10/10 | 2.09 | 3.18 | +1.08 | 55th → 85th | 3.4 | 4% | 4.7 / 8.6 |
| 4 | Clay Broussard '18 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 10/10 | 2.13 | 2.67 | +0.53 | 56th → 71st | 1.0 | 20% | 6.5 / 8.5 |
| 5 | Connor Swikart '18 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 10/10 | 2.28 | 2.48 | +0.20 | 59th → 62nd | 0.1 | 36% | 7.1 / 8.0 |
| 6 | Keen Butcher '18 | University of Pennsylvania | 10/10 | 2.06 | 2.54 | +0.48 | 53rd → 66th | 0.8 | 28% | 7.2 / 8.6 |
| 7 | John Glenn '22 | Old Dominion University | 10/10 | 1.16 | 1.97 | +0.82 | 26th → 51st | 2.2 | 22% | 9.2 / 11.0 |
| 8 | Tom O'Shea '21 | Cornell University Big Red 2 | 10/10 | 1.60 | 1.95 | +0.35 | 40th → 50th | 0.5 | 42% | 9.3 / 9.8 |
| 9 | Tyler Fleig '19 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 10/10 | 1.85 | 1.88 | +0.03 | 46th → 47th | 0.0 | 61% | 9.8 / 9.2 |
| 10 | Phillip Schofield '21 | Cornell University Big Red 1 | 10/10 | 2.29 | 1.82 | −0.47 | 59th → 45th | 0.9 | 87% | 10.4 / 8.0 |
| 11 | Adam Didomizio '19 | George Washington University | 10/10 | 2.28 | 1.10 | −1.18 | 59th → 25th | 5.5 | 87% | 10.5 / 8.1 |
| 12 | Ian Beckley '20 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 | 10/10 | 1.83 | 1.50 | −0.33 | 45th → 38th | 0.4 | 75% | 10.6 / 9.2 |
| 13 | Joshua Paper '20 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 10/10 | 1.80 | 1.37 | −0.42 | 44th → 33rd | 0.8 | 72% | 11.0 / 9.4 |
| 14 | Philip Davis '20 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 10/10 | 1.81 | 1.09 | −0.72 | 44th → 25th | 2.5 | 92% | 13.1 / 9.4 |
| 15 | Jack Hogan '22 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 10/10 | 1.10 | 0.56 | −0.54 | 25th → 15th | 1.0 | 78% | 13.3 / 11.2 |
| 16 | Garrett Levy '21 | University of Virginia | 10/10 | 0.93 | -0.14 | −1.07 | 21st → 4th | 3.6 | 83% | 14.2 / 11.7 |
| 17 | Bailey Hurst '20 | Christopher Newport University | 10/10 | 0.82 | 0.76 | −0.06 | 18th → 18th | 0.0 | 86% | 14.5 / 11.8 |
| 18 | Ian Taylor '18 | Rochester Institute of Technology | 10/10 | -0.44 | 0.12 | +0.56 | 3rd → 8th | 0.8 | 62% | 15.4 / 14.6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
