Carl Van Duyne MAISA Singles

HostNavy
Date10/08/2016
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	36
2	Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	40
3	George Washington University	Brendan Shanahan '17	57
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	82
5	Queen's University	John Ruitenberg '19	110
6	Christopher Newport University	Austin Powers '17	113
7	George Washington University	Colin Kennedy '17	116
8	Old Dominion University	Alec Chicoine '18	125
9	Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20	151
10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Michael Munger '20	152
11	University of Virginia	Colin Suvak '19	155
12	Queen's University	Will Jones '17	158
13	Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	163
14	George Washington University	Adam Didomizio '19	165
15	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Ryan Wood '17	166
16	Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	182
17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	190
18	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Devin Keister '18	221

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	10	3	2	1	3	3	6	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	36
Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	2	2	1	4	4	2	1	2	3	3	3	3	3	7	40
George Washington University	Brendan Shanahan '17	1	1	3	3	1	10	8	6	8	2	2	4	4	4	57
U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	3	14	9	2	6	1	10	4	5	7	6	5	7	3	82
Queen's University	John Ruitenberg '19	18	9	11	6	8	6	12	16	2	6	4	2	8	2	110
Christopher Newport University	Austin Powers '17	4	6	13	7	7	4	3	13	15	13	11	7	5	5	113
George Washington University	Colin Kennedy '17	5	4	8	14	12	5	2	7	BKD	8	10	10	10	13	116
Old Dominion University	Alec Chicoine '18	6	16	5	9	2	8	5	3	12	4	16	13	16	10	125
Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20	8	8	14	11	5	15	14	5	11	10	13	17	9	11	151
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Michael Munger '20	15	17	4	12	15	12	4	14	10	11	9	11	12	6	152
University of Virginia	Colin Suvak '19	11	13	17	16	10	16	13	8	6	14	7	6	6	12	155
Queen's University	Will Jones '17	14	5	12	5	9	13	17	18	9	12	5	9	14	16	158
Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	13	7	10	10	13	7	9	15	13	BKD	8	16	15	15	163
George Washington University	Adam Didomizio '19	16	18	15	17	18	18	16	9	4	5	12	8	1	8	165
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Ryan Wood '17	7	10	6	8	16	11	7	17	17	15	15	15	13	9	166
Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	12	12	7	13	11	14	11	10	7	9	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	182
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	9	11	18	15	14	9	15	12	14	17	17	14	11	14	190
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Devin Keister '18	17	15	16	18	17	17	18	11	16	16	14	12	17	17	221

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Greg Martinez '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	14/14	3.56	5.04	+1.48	92nd → 99th	7.5	1%	2.6 / 6.2
2	Jack Marshall '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14/14	3.03	4.94	+1.91	83rd → 99th	12.3	<1%	2.9 / 7.4
3	Brendan Shanahan '17	George Washington University Colonials 3	14/14	3.45	4.11	+0.66	89th → 96th	1.9	10%	4.1 / 6.3
4	Gary Prieto '18	U. S. Naval Academy	14/14	3.29	3.38	+0.09	86th → 89th	0.0	34%	5.9 / 6.9
5	John Ruitenberg '19	Queen's University Gaels 1	14/14	1.45^u	2.53	+1.08	36th → 66th	4.6	8%	7.9 / 11.6
6	Austin Powers '17	Christopher Newport University Captains 1	14/14	2.25	2.64	+0.39	59th → 70th	0.8	24%	8.1 / 9.6
7	Alec Chicoine '18	Old Dominion University	14/14	2.34	2.24	−0.10	60th → 59th	0.1	44%	8.9 / 9.3
8	Colin Kennedy '17	George Washington University Colonials 2	14/14	2.26	2.70	+0.44	59th → 72nd	0.9	42%	9.1 / 9.6
9	Vir Menon '20	Christopher Newport University Captains 2	14/14	2.66	1.95	−0.72	71st → 50th	3.1	88%	10.8 / 8.4
10	Michael Munger '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	14/14	2.38	2.01	−0.37	61st → 52nd	0.8	78%	10.9 / 9.3
11	Colin Suvak '19	University of Virginia	14/14	2.22	2.00	−0.23	58th → 52nd	0.3	74%	11.1 / 9.8
12	Will Jones '17	Queen's University Gaels 2	14/14	1.28	1.70	+0.42	30th → 42nd	0.8	36%	11.3 / 12.1
13	Adam Didomizio '19	George Washington University Colonials 1	14/14	2.03	1.25	−0.79	53rd → 29th	3.1	77%	11.8 / 10.2
14	Ryan Wood '17	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	14/14	1.25	1.62	+0.37	29th → 40th	0.6	41%	11.9 / 12.3
15	Daniel Birmingham '17	Cornell University	14/14	1.76	1.87	+0.11	43rd → 47th	0.1	72%	12.1 / 11.0
16	Clay Broussard '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	14/14	2.13	2.36	+0.22	56th → 60th	0.2	94%	13.0 / 9.9
17	Connor Swikart '18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	14/14	2.20	1.13	−1.06	58th → 25th	6.4	97%	13.6 / 9.7
18	Devin Keister '18	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	14/14	1.55	0.47	−1.09	39th → 13th	6.1	99%	15.8 / 11.5

Conditions — 10/08/2016 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Slight rain

Humidity 96% · Pressure 1016.6 hPa

Temperature

65°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 64°F

Feels like 66°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.3 kn

avg · max 9.4 kn

Gusts to 15.6 kn

From NE (43°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity96% Pressure1016.6 hPa Rain0.37 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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