Bob Bavier Team Race

HostCharleston
Date03/04/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED Interconference
BoatFJ/Z420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	College of Charleston	Cougars	18–3
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	17–4
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	12–9
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	10–11
5	George Washington University	Colonials	12–9
6	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	8–13
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	8–13
8	Eckerd College	Tritons	8–13
9	University of South Florida	Bulls	5–13
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	4–14

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 7,487 team race matches sailed before 2017-03-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 70 of 102 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.600 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.14 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 59% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	College of Charleston Cougars	1	11.18 school +0.39	Stefano Peschiera / Grace Mccarthy Jack Cusick / Chloe Dapp Christophe Killian / Elizabeth Pemberton	70%	18–3 (86%)	+3.2
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	3	11.09	Roger Dorr / Haley Shea 3.39 Campbell D'Eliscu / Meaghan Macrae 3.95 12–2 Aj Reiter / Rebecca Fung 3.69 12–2 Campbell D'Eliscu / Rebecca Fung 3.83 5–2 Aj Reiter / Meaghan Macrae 3.81 5–2	66%	17–4 (81%)	+3.1
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	10.33 school −0.08	Patrick Snow / Mary Morocco 3.61 10–7 Gary Prieto / Ana Mier 3.46 9–6 Peter Hogan / Sarah Barkley 2.85 7–5 Michael Madigan / Ana Mier 3.07 3–3 Patrick Snow / Mary Robertson 3.90 2–2 Gary Prieto / Mary Morocco 3.41 2–2 Peter Hogan / Mary Robertson 3.20 2–1 Gary Prieto / Sarah Barkley 3.53 1–1	47%	12–9 (57%)	+2.2
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	2	11.15 school +0.09	Charles Lalumiere / Rebecca Mcelvain 3.81 Jack Mcgraw / Mary Amis Christopher Williford / Sophie Kerr 3.75 8–6 Christopher Williford / Nathaniel Greason 3.71 2–5	69%	10–11 (48%)	−4.5
5	George Washington University Colonials	6	10.04 school −0.25	Andrew Sheerin / Matthew Homa 3.18 Brendan Shanahan / Andreea Rainey-Pace 3.54 10–9 Kai Friesecke / Mercedes Mcphee 3.60 9–5 Derek Poon Tip / Shira Golub 3.10 5–4	46%	12–9 (57%)	+2.3
6	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	4	10.15 school +0.48	Stephen Long / Kristina Miller 3.28 Christopher Weis / Claire Hunt 3.24 Sterling Henken / Elizabeth Moody 3.06	48%	8–13 (38%)	−2.1
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	7	10.07 school +0.71	Bradley Adam / Hannah Chapman 3.29 Kyle Burgess / Shelby Jacobs 3.07 Jonathan Lutz / Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger 2.80	45%	8–13 (38%)	−1.4
8	Eckerd College Tritons	10	9.42	Jason D'Agostino / Sabine Zinserling 3.15 Karl Rasmus Sayre / Delphine Carroll 3.10 Andrew Schoene / Kim Kusminsky 3.05	27%	8–13 (38%)	+2.4
9	University of South Florida Bulls	8	9.85 school +0.08	Sean Cornell / Kristen Walker 3.83 Michael Trebilcock / Lizette Arnold 2.77 5–11 Brendan Feeney / John Monahan 2.77 1–9 Andrew Baird / Darby Capellin 3.43 4–6	40%	5–13 (28%)	−2.1
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	9	9.92 school −0.35	Nikole Barnes / Anna Morin 3.99 Mack Fox / Maddie Ekin Dana Rohde / Miyako Miller 3.26 4–6 Austin Lettengarver / Miyako Miller 2.89 0–8	39%	4–14 (22%)	−3.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	College of Charleston	11.18	12.17	18–3	14.7	+0.99	2.1	8%
2	Georgetown University	11.09	11.92	17–4	13.9	+0.83	1.8	10%
8	Eckerd College	9.42	9.95	8–13	5.6	+0.54	0.9	17%
5	George Washington University	10.04	10.54	12–9	9.7	+0.50	0.8	20%
3	U. S. Naval Academy	10.33	10.80	12–9	9.8	+0.47	0.8	21%
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.07	9.77	8–13	9.4	−0.30	0.3	81%
6	University of California at Santa Barbara	10.15	9.69	8–13	10.1	−0.46	0.7	89%
9	University of South Florida	9.85	9.26	5–13	7.1	−0.59	0.9	91%
10	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	9.92	9.04	4–14	7.1	−0.89	1.9	97%
4	Dartmouth College	11.15	10.16	10–11	14.5	−0.99	3.3	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Stefano Peschiera	College of Charleston	3.75	4.75	18–3	14.7	+0.99	2.1	8%
Jack Cusick	College of Charleston	3.52	4.51	18–3	14.7	+0.99	2.1	8%
Aj Reiter	Georgetown University	3.69	4.52	17–4	13.9	+0.83	1.8	10%
Jason D'Agostino	Eckerd College	3.15	3.69	8–13	5.6	+0.54	0.9	17%
Karl Rasmus Sayre	Eckerd College	3.10	3.64	8–13	5.6	+0.54	0.9	17%
Andrew Schoene	Eckerd College	3.05	3.59	8–13	5.6	+0.54	0.9	17%
Andrew Sheerin	George Washington University	3.18	3.68	12–9	9.7	+0.50	0.8	20%
Patrick Snow	U. S. Naval Academy	3.61	4.08	12–9	9.8	+0.47	0.8	21%
Gary Prieto	U. S. Naval Academy	3.46	3.93	12–9	9.8	+0.47	0.8	21%
Brendan Shanahan	George Washington University	3.54	3.88	10–9	8.6	+0.34	0.3	33%
Bradley Adam	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.29	2.99	8–13	9.4	−0.30	0.3	81%
Kyle Burgess	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.07	2.77	8–13	9.4	−0.30	0.3	81%
Andrew Baird	University of South Florida	3.43	3.06	4–6	4.9	−0.37	0.2	81%
Stephen Long	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.28	2.82	8–13	10.1	−0.46	0.7	89%
Sterling Henken	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.06	2.61	8–13	10.1	−0.46	0.7	89%
Michael Trebilcock	University of South Florida	2.77	2.30	5–11	6.5	−0.47	0.5	87%
Sean Cornell	University of South Florida	3.83	3.24	5–13	7.1	−0.59	0.9	91%
Michael Madigan	U. S. Naval Academy	3.07	2.44	3–3	3.9	−0.63	0.4	88%
Nikole Barnes	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	3.99	3.10	4–14	7.1	−0.89	1.9	97%
Charles Lalumiere	Dartmouth College	3.81	2.82	10–11	14.5	−0.99	3.3	99%
Brendan Feeney	University of South Florida	2.77	1.45	1–9	2.8	−1.32	1.5	97%
Austin Lettengarver	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	2.89	-0.11	0–8	2.9	≤−3.00	4.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	George Washington University	Georgetown University	28%	upset
1	2	Eckerd College	U. S. Naval Academy	27%	upset
1	3	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	83%
1	4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
1	5	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	67%
1	6	Eckerd College	George Washington University	31%	upset
1	7	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
1	8	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	55%
1	9	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of South Florida	65%
1	10	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
1	11	Eckerd College	Dartmouth College	15%	upset
1	12	George Washington University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	62%
1	13	Georgetown University	University of California at Santa Barbara	72%
1	14	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	50%	upset
1	15	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	82%
1	16	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	80%
1	17	Eckerd College	University of California at Santa Barbara	32%	upset
1	18	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	55%
1	19	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	71%
1	20	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	73%
1	21	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	47%	upset
1	22	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	75%
1	23	University of South Florida	Eckerd College	68%
1	24	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	47%	upset
1	25	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	50%	upset
1	26	University of California at Santa Barbara	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
1	27	University of South Florida	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	53%
1	28	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	31%	upset
1	29	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	84%
1	30	College of Charleston	George Washington University	80%
1	31	University of South Florida	St. Mary's College of Maryland	52%
1	32	U. S. Naval Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	61%
1	33	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	74%
1	34	George Washington University	Dartmouth College	20%	upset
1	35	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	85%
1	36	University of South Florida	U. S. Naval Academy	44%	upset
1	37	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
1	38	University of California at Santa Barbara	George Washington University	59%
1	39	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Eckerd College	65%
1	40	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	50%
1	41	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
1	42	George Washington University	University of South Florida	55%
1	43	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	66%
1	44	Dartmouth College	University of California at Santa Barbara	73%
1	45	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	76%
2	46	George Washington University	Georgetown University	30%	upset
2	47	Eckerd College	U. S. Naval Academy	23%	upset
2	48	University of South Florida	Dartmouth College	16%	upset
2	49	St. Mary's College of Maryland	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	57%
2	50	College of Charleston	University of California at Santa Barbara	74%
2	51	Eckerd College	George Washington University	30%	upset
2	52	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	49%	upset
2	53	U. S. Naval Academy	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	60%
2	54	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of South Florida	66%
2	55	College of Charleston	St. Mary's College of Maryland	76%
2	56	Dartmouth College	Eckerd College	85%
2	57	George Washington University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	61%
2	58	Georgetown University	University of California at Santa Barbara	72%
2	59	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	54%
2	60	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	85%
2	61	Dartmouth College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	79%
2	62	University of California at Santa Barbara	Eckerd College	67%
2	63	George Washington University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	55%
2	64	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	72%
2	65	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	73%
2	66	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	48%	upset
2	67	Dartmouth College	St. Mary's College of Maryland	74%
2	68	Eckerd College	University of South Florida	33%	upset
2	69	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	50%	upset
2	70	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	54%
2	71	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of California at Santa Barbara	49%	upset
2	72	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	University of South Florida	49%	upset
2	73	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	67%
2	74	Georgetown University	Eckerd College	84%
2	75	George Washington University	College of Charleston	19%	upset
2	76	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of South Florida	49%	upset
2	77	U. S. Naval Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	63%
2	78	Georgetown University	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	73%
2	79	Dartmouth College	George Washington University	80%
2	80	College of Charleston	Eckerd College	86%
2	81	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	59%
2	82	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
2	83	University of California at Santa Barbara	George Washington University	59%
2	84	Eckerd College	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	34%	upset
2	85	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	53%
2	86	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
2	87	George Washington University	University of South Florida	55%
2	88	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	66%
2	89	Dartmouth College	University of California at Santa Barbara	73%
2	90	College of Charleston	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	77%
4	91	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	31%	upset
4	92	College of Charleston	Dartmouth College	53%
4	93	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Eckerd College	66%
4	94	George Washington University	University of California at Santa Barbara	41%	upset
4	95	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	50%	upset
4	96	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	72%
4	97	University of California at Santa Barbara	Eckerd College	67%
4	98	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	45%	upset
4	99	U. S. Naval Academy	Dartmouth College	34%	upset
4	100	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	45%	upset
4	101	University of California at Santa Barbara	St. Mary's College of Maryland	51%
4	102	George Washington University	Eckerd College	70%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Green	Colonials	Gauchos	Seahawks	Tritons	Bulls	Bears
College of Charleston Cougars	8–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	8–1	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–4	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	L	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–5	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	L	W	W
George Washington University Colonials	5–4	L	W	L	W	✕	L	W	L	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3–6	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Eckerd College Tritons	4–5	L	L	W	W	W	W	L	✕	L	L
University of South Florida Bulls	4–5	L	L	W	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Green	Colonials	Gauchos	Seahawks	Tritons	Bulls	Bears
College of Charleston Cougars	8–1	✕	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–2	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5–4	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–3	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W
George Washington University Colonials	5–4	W	W	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3–6	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W
Eckerd College Tritons	4–5	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	1–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	L
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cougars	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Green	Colonials	Gauchos	Seahawks	Tritons
College of Charleston Cougars	2–1	✕	L	W	W	–	–	–	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	2–1	W	✕	L	W	–	–	–	–
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–1	L	W	✕	W	–	–	–	–
Dartmouth College Big Green	0–3	L	L	L	✕	–	–	–	–
George Washington University Colonials	2–1	–	–	–	–	✕	W	L	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2–1	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	2–1	–	–	–	–	W	L	✕	W
Eckerd College Tritons	0–3	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
2	Tritons	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
3	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
4	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
5	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
6	Tritons	1-3-5	def.	Colonials	2-4-6
7	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6
8	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
9	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
10	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
11	Tritons	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
12	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
13	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
14	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
15	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
16	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
17	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
18	Colonials	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
19	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
20	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6
21	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
22	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Seahawks	1-5-6
23	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
24	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
25	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
26	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
27	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
28	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
29	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
30	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Colonials	3-5-6
31	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
32	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
33	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
34	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
35	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Tritons	2-4-5
36	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
37	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
38	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Colonials	3-4-5
39	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
40	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
41	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
42	Colonials	1-3-4	def.	Bulls	2-5-6
43	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6
44	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
45	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
46	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
47	Tritons	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
48	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
49	Seahawks	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6 DNF
50	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
51	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
52	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
53	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
54	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
55	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
56	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Tritons	2-3-6
57	Colonials	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
58	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
59	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
60	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
61	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
62	Gauchos	1-3-5	def.	Tritons	2-4-6
63	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
64	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
65	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
66	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
67	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
68	Tritons	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
69	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Colonials	1-5-6
70	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
71	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
72	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Bulls	1-4-6
73	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
74	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Tritons	2-4-5
75	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
76	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Bulls	2-4-5
77	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
78	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
79	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
80	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Tritons	4-5-6
81	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
82	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Seahawks	1-4-6
83	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Colonials	3-4-6
84	Tritons	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
85	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
86	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
87	Colonials	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
88	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Tritons	3-4-6
89	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Gauchos	1-4-6
90	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
91	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Hoyas	1-5-6
92	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
93	Seahawks	1-2-6	def.	Tritons	3-4-5
94	Colonials	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
95	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
96	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
97	Gauchos	1-3-6	def.	Tritons	2-4-5
98	Seahawks	1-2-3	def.	Colonials	4-5-6
99	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
100	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
101	Gauchos	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
102	Colonials	1-2-4	def.	Tritons	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
College of Charleston	Cougars	Christophe Killian '18 Jack Cusick '17 Stefano Peschiera '18	Elizabeth Pemberton '18 Chloe Dapp '17 Grace Mccarthy '18
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Aj Reiter '17 Campbell D'Eliscu '19 Roger Dorr '18	Meaghan Macrae '18 Rebecca Fung '19 Haley Shea '19
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Gary Prieto '18 Michael Madigan '17 Patrick Snow '17 Peter Hogan '18	Ana Mier '19 Mary Morocco '19 Sarah Barkley '19 Mary Robertson '17
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Charles Lalumiere '17 Christopher Williford '19 Jack Mcgraw '20	Rebecca Mcelvain '19 Sophie Kerr '17 Nathaniel Greason '17 Mary Amis '19
George Washington University	Colonials	Andrew Sheerin '19 Brendan Shanahan '17 Derek Poon Tip '19 Kai Friesecke '18	Matthew Homa '18 Andreea Rainey-Pace '20 Shira Golub '18 Mercedes Mcphee '19
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Christopher Weis '18 Stephen Long '17 Sterling Henken '18	Claire Hunt '19 Kristina Miller '17 Elizabeth Moody '20
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Bradley Adam '17 Jonathan Lutz '17 Kyle Burgess '17	Hannah Chapman '17 Lydia Mcpherson-Shambarger '19 Shelby Jacobs '17
Eckerd College	Tritons	Andrew Schoene '18 Jason D'Agostino '17 Karl Rasmus Sayre '19	Kim Kusminsky '19 Sabine Zinserling '20 Delphine Carroll '19
University of South Florida	Bulls	Andrew Baird '18 Brendan Feeney '18 Michael Trebilcock '17 Sean Cornell '18	Darby Capellin '19 John Monahan '20 Lizette Arnold '17 Kristen Walker '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	Austin Lettengarver '19 Dana Rohde '18 Mack Fox '20 Nikole Barnes '17	Miyako Miller '20 Maddie Ekin '20 Anna Morin '19

Conditions — 03/04/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 35% · Pressure 1035.8 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 57°F ↓ 41°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.6 kn

avg · max 10.5 kn

Gusts to 19.6 kn

From ENE (63°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity35% Pressure1035.8 hPa

What this breeze does at Charleston — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Charleston in this breeze: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Charleston by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (69 labelled fleet-race days at Charleston).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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