Carl Van Duyne

HostKings Point
Date10/10/2015
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Nevin Snow '16	50
2	U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	74
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Markus Edegran '16	78
4	George Washington University	Brendan Shanahan '17	81
5	Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	83
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Addison Hackstaff '18	96
7	Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	100
8	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Austin Neuman '16	123
9	Queen's University	John Ruitenberg '19	125
10	Old Dominion University	Joseph David '16	144
11	SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	147
12	University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	153
13	Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	157
14	Old Dominion University	Ethan Lounsbury '17	157
15	George Washington University	Daniel Delbello '17	158
16	Queen's University	John Machum '17	159
17	Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	160
18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	178

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	TOT
Georgetown University	Nevin Snow '16	2	1	1	6	6	3	2	3	12	4	6	3	1	50
U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	3	2	3	3	13	8	3	8	9	5	3	6	8	74
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Markus Edegran '16	4	8	8	1	15	5	16	5	5	3	1	5	2	78
George Washington University	Brendan Shanahan '17	1	11	5	2	11	1	14	12	10	2	7	2	3	81
Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	9	4	4	5	4	2	4	6	4	13	14	9	5	83
U. S. Naval Academy	Addison Hackstaff '18	6	7	13	8	12	6	5	7	14	1	12	1	4	96
Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	12	5	11	7	7	4	7	1	6	8	4	12	16	100
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Austin Neuman '16	7	12	2	13	17	15	1	11	3	17	15	4	6	123
Queen's University	John Ruitenberg '19	11	10	7	9	3	11	9	9	11	9	11	15	10	125
Old Dominion University	Joseph David '16	16	6	12	12	16	18	8	17	1	11	2	13	12	144
SUNY Maritime College	Nick Valente '16	18	9	17	14	2	14	6	2	16	6	8	17	18	147
University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	17	14	6	18	5	7	18	4	13	16	16	10	9	153
Cornell University	Daniel Birmingham '17	5	13	14	15	18	10	15	15	2	14	5	14	17	157
Old Dominion University	Ethan Lounsbury '17	10	3	15	10	1	16	17	18	15	12	13	16	11	157
George Washington University	Daniel Delbello '17	13	15	9	17	9	17	12	10	18	7	9	7	15	158
Queen's University	John Machum '17	15	17	10	11	10	12	10	14	8	10	10	18	14	159
Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	8	18	16	4	8	13	13	16	7	15	18	11	13	160
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	14	16	18	16	14	9	11	13	17	18	17	8	7	178

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

^u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A 18 boats · 13 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Nevin Snow '16	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	13/13	3.76	4.44	+0.69	93rd → 99th	1.9	11%	3.8 / 6.0
2	Gary Prieto '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	13/13	2.82	3.75	+0.93	77th → 93rd	3.6	8%	5.7 / 8.5
3	Markus Edegran '16	St. Mary's College of Maryland	13/13	2.72	3.41	+0.68	72nd → 89th	2.0	10%	6.0 / 8.8
4	Brendan Shanahan '17	George Washington University Colonials 1	13/13	3.01	3.40	+0.39	83rd → 89th	0.7	21%	6.2 / 8.0
5	Greg Martinez '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	13/13	3.29	3.40	+0.11	86th → 89th	0.1	37%	6.4 / 7.2
6	Addison Hackstaff '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	13/13	2.80	3.20	+0.40	76th → 85th	0.8	35%	7.4 / 8.6
7	Jack Marshall '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	13/13	2.78	3.06	+0.28	75th → 83rd	0.4	35%	7.7 / 8.6
8	Austin Neuman '16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	13/13	1.90	2.39	+0.49	48th → 61st	1.1	25%	9.5 / 11.1
9	John Ruitenberg '19	Queen's University Gaels 1	13/13	1.45^u	2.81	+1.36	36th → 76th	7.4	17%	9.6 / 12.1
10	Joseph David '16	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	13/13	2.49	1.97	−0.52	63rd → 51st	1.4	78%	11.1 / 9.5
11	Nick Valente '16	SUNY Maritime College	13/13	2.78	1.61	−1.17	75th → 40th	7.3	89%	11.3 / 8.7
12	Keen Butcher '18	University of Pennsylvania	13/13	2.35	1.75	−0.60	60th → 43rd	1.8	82%	11.8 / 9.8
13	Daniel Birmingham '17	Cornell University	13/13	1.74	1.91	+0.17	43rd → 48th	0.1	61%	12.1 / 11.5
13	Ethan Lounsbury '17	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	13/13	2.34	1.86	−0.48	60th → 47th	1.2	84%	12.1 / 9.9
15	Daniel Delbello '17	George Washington University Colonials 2	13/13	2.45	1.88	−0.57	62nd → 47th	1.8	89%	12.2 / 9.5
16	John Machum '17	Queen's University Gaels 2	13/13	1.45	2.02	+0.57	36th → 53rd	1.4	51%	12.2 / 12.1
17	Clay Broussard '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 4	13/13	2.13	1.70	−0.44	56th → 42nd	0.9	83%	12.3 / 10.3
18	Connor Swikart '18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	13/13	2.03	1.47	−0.56	53rd → 37th	1.6	92%	13.7 / 10.7

Conditions — 10/10/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 56% · Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 61°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.3 kn

avg · max 7.8 kn

Gusts to 19.0 kn

From N (350°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover3% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1019.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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