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LaserPerformance Men's Singlehanded Championship

SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT
Yale University Yale University Malcolm Lamphere '18 8 2 1 2 3 2 9 1 11 2 3 44
Harvard University Harvard University Juan Perdomo '17 13 1 9 5 1 4 3 4 5 1 1 47
College of Charleston College of Charleston Stefano Peschiera '18 4 3 5 4 7 1 6 3 3 5 11 52
College of Charleston College of Charleston Enrique Arathoon '16 5 9 10 1 4 3 BKD 2 2 3 8 52
Yale University Yale University Joseph Kiss '17 3 7 7 7 6 7 2 13 1 4 7 64
Stanford University Stanford University Luke Muller '18 9 13 8 3 2 6 1 7 6 7 4 66
Yale University Yale University Nicholas Baird '19 1 4 2 8 5 8 4 15 12 6 9 74
Georgetown University Georgetown University Nevin Snow '16 6 6 3 6 14 11 10 6 4 10 2 78
George Washington University George Washington University Brendan Shanahan '17 12 11 12 10 8 5 5 5 10 8 13 99
College of Charleston College of Charleston Reed Baldridge '16 2 5 16 17 10 10 16 12 8 13 6 115
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Gary Prieto '18 16 8 15 9 9 9 11 8 7 14 10 116
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Richard Didham '18 7 16 6 11 13 17 7 9 15 11 17 129
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Markus Edegran '16 14 10 14 12 12 13 8 10 13 9 14 129
Texas A&M University at Galveston Texas A&M University at Galveston John Hanna '19 11 12 11 16 17 16 13 16 9 12 5 138
Oregon State University Oregon State University Michael Levy '19 15 15 4 14 11 12 15 14 18 16 DNS 153
Washington University Washington University James Harvey '17 10 14 13 DNF DNF 14 17 11 14 15 15 161
Michigan State University Michigan State University Matthew Declercq '17 17 18 18 13 15 15 14 17 17 17 12 173
University of Wisconsin University of Wisconsin Nathan Jamieson '17 18 17 17 15 16 18 18 18 16 18 16 187

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 11 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Malcolm Lamphere '18Yale University Bulldogs 111/113.064.62+1.5683rd → 99th7.21%4.0 / 8.7
2Juan Perdomo '17Harvard University11/113.264.48+1.2286th → 99th4.66%4.3 / 8.0
3Stefano Peschiera '18College of Charleston Cougars 111/113.744.39+0.6693rd → 98th1.514%4.7 / 6.9
4Joseph Kiss '17Yale University Bulldogs 311/113.364.02+0.6689th → 95th1.623%5.8 / 7.9
5Enrique Arathoon '16College of Charleston Cougars 211/113.464.42+0.9689th → 98th2.828%6.0 / 7.6
5Luke Muller '18Stanford University11/112.653.91+1.2770th → 95th5.24%6.0 / 9.8
7Nicholas Baird '19Yale University Bulldogs 211/113.363.54+0.1889th → 92nd0.131%6.7 / 7.9
8Nevin Snow '16Georgetown University11/113.743.42−0.3293rd → 89th0.559%7.1 / 6.8
9Brendan Shanahan '17George Washington University11/113.083.10+0.0283rd → 84th0.060%9.0 / 8.6
10Reed Baldridge '16College of Charleston Cougars 311/113.522.21−1.3191st → 58th8.487%10.5 / 7.5
11Gary Prieto '18U. S. Naval Academy11/112.832.65−0.1777th → 70th0.172%10.5 / 9.3
12Markus Edegran '16St. Mary's College of Maryland11/112.792.46−0.3476th → 62nd0.588%11.7 / 9.2
12Richard Didham '18University of California at Berkeley11/111.31u1.92+0.6230th → 48th1.229%11.7 / 12.9
14John Hanna '19Texas A&M University at Galveston11/112.801.86−0.9376th → 47th4.093%12.5 / 9.4
15Michael Levy '19Oregon State University11/111.491.68+0.1937th → 41st0.170%13.9 / 12.7
16James Harvey '17Washington University11/112.051.88−0.1753rd → 47th0.191%14.6 / 11.2
17Matthew Declercq '17Michigan State University11/111.040.93−0.1124th → 21st0.083%15.7 / 13.6
18Nathan Jamieson '17University of Wisconsin11/111.37-0.03−1.4033rd → 6th6.299%17.0 / 12.8

Conditions — 11/07/2015 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 87%  ·  Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

70°F
↑ 75°F   ↓ 64°F
Feels like 73°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.4 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 19.2 kn
From WNW (301°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine5.5 hrs Humidity87% Pressure1017.4 hPa Rain0.27 in

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →