Carl Van Duyne - MAISA Singles

HostKings Point
Date10/07/2017
TypeConference Championship
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	65
2	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Carrson Pearce '21	77
3	Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	82
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Maximilian Guerriero '21	86
5	Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	87
6	Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20	101
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Michael Munger '20	107
8	University of Virginia	Colin Suvak '19	119
9	University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	134
10	U. S. Naval Academy	Connor Bayless '21	135
11	George Washington University	Soenke Jordan '21	145
12	SUNY Maritime College	Zachary Hill '18	154
13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	158
14	Old Dominion University	Alec Chicoine '18	162
15	Cornell University	Gerard Eastman '21	178
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Luke Welker '21	195
17	SUNY Maritime College	Alexander Ellis '21	197
18	Hampton University	Filip Stevanovic '20	202

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	TOT
U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	1	2	1	3	1	3	1	8	4	10	16	1	8	6	65
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Carrson Pearce '21	13	4	4	6	2	5	3	2	10	5	8	10	2	3	77
Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	2	5	8	7	7	1	5	7	5	2	15	6	7	5	82
U. S. Naval Academy	Maximilian Guerriero '21	16	6	11	14	4	7	6	3	2	1	1	2	3	10	86
Georgetown University	Jack Marshall '18	3	10	7	1	6	13	14	1	8	8	2	4	1	9	87
Christopher Newport University	Vir Menon '20	15	13	2	12	3	4	15	10	1	3	3	3	16	1	101
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Michael Munger '20	12	3	6	4	8	2	10	14	11	7	BKD	7	13	2	107
University of Virginia	Colin Suvak '19	8	9	15	15	11	14	2	6	7	4	6	14	4	4	119
University of Pennsylvania	Keen Butcher '18	17	16	12	11	14	6	4	5	3	6	4	13	11	12	134
U. S. Naval Academy	Connor Bayless '21	7	1	9	8	5	8	7	9	12	9	10	16	15	RAF	135
George Washington University	Soenke Jordan '21	9	12	5	5	13	10	8	12	14	18	11	9	12	7	145
SUNY Maritime College	Zachary Hill '18	11	15	18	2	9	9	18	16	6	15	7	5	9	14	154
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Connor Swikart '18	5	18	16	9	16	16	11	4	13	11	5	8	18	8	158
Old Dominion University	Alec Chicoine '18	10	8	17	16	10	12	9	11	9	14	9	15	5	17	162
Cornell University	Gerard Eastman '21	14	11	10	13	12	11	12	17	16	13	14	12	10	13	178
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Luke Welker '21	4	7	14	17	18	17	17	15	15	16	13	17	14	11	195
SUNY Maritime College	Alexander Ellis '21	18	17	3	10	15	15	16	BKD	DNF	12	OCS	18	6	15	197
Hampton University	Filip Stevanovic '20	6	14	13	18	17	18	13	13	17	17	12	11	17	16	202

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 14 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Gary Prieto '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14/14	3.45	3.74	+0.29	89th → 93rd	0.4	11%	4.6 / 7.0
2	Carrson Pearce '21	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1	14/14	2.87	3.80	+0.93	78th → 94th	3.8	7%	5.5 / 8.5
3	Clay Broussard '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	14/14	2.13	3.70	+1.56	56th → 93rd	9.7	1%	5.9 / 10.6
4	Maximilian Guerriero '21	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	14/14	2.66	3.41	+0.75	70th → 89th	2.5	14%	6.1 / 9.2
5	Jack Marshall '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	14/14	3.37	3.47	+0.10	89th → 90th	0.1	35%	6.2 / 7.2
6	Vir Menon '20	Christopher Newport University	14/14	2.71	3.02	+0.31	72nd → 83rd	0.5	21%	7.2 / 9.0
7	Michael Munger '20	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1	14/14	2.51	3.20	+0.69	64th → 85th	2.1	31%	8.4 / 9.5
8	Colin Suvak '19	University of Virginia	14/14	2.41	2.90	+0.48	61st → 78th	1.2	28%	8.5 / 9.8
9	Keen Butcher '18	University of Pennsylvania	14/14	2.06	2.56	+0.50	53rd → 67th	1.2	29%	9.6 / 10.8
10	Connor Bayless '21	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	14/14	2.72	2.83	+0.10	72nd → 77th	0.1	64%	9.6 / 9.0
11	Soenke Jordan '21	George Washington University	14/14	2.72	2.43	−0.30	72nd → 62nd	0.5	74%	10.4 / 9.0
12	Zachary Hill '18	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1	14/14	2.71	1.96	−0.75	72nd → 50th	3.1	78%	11.0 / 9.0
13	Connor Swikart '18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2	14/14	2.28	1.92	−0.35	59th → 48th	0.6	70%	11.3 / 10.2
14	Alec Chicoine '18	Old Dominion University	14/14	2.52	2.10	−0.41	65th → 55th	1.0	82%	11.6 / 9.6
15	Gerard Eastman '21	Cornell University	14/14	2.39	2.01	−0.38	61st → 52nd	0.8	91%	12.7 / 9.9
16	Luke Welker '21	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2	14/14	2.42	1.49	−0.93	61st → 38th	5.4	97%	13.9 / 9.8
17	Alexander Ellis '21	SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2	14/14	1.46	1.55	+0.09	36th → 39th	0.0	79%	14.4 / 12.3
17	Filip Stevanovic '20	Hampton University	14/14	2.09	1.27	−0.82	55th → 30th	3.6	96%	14.4 / 10.7

Conditions — 10/07/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 78% · Pressure 1019.0 hPa

Temperature

73°F

↑ 78°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 76°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.5 kn

avg · max 13.5 kn

Gusts to 25.5 kn

From SSE (157°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover82% Sunshine9.8 hrs Humidity78% Pressure1019.0 hPa

What this breeze does at Kings Point — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Kings Point in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Kings Point by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (80 labelled fleet-race days at Kings Point).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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