Laser Performance Men's Singlehanded Nationals

HostSouth Florida
Date11/04/2017
TypeNational Championship Finals
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	College of Charleston	Stefano Peschiera '18	50
2	College of Charleston	Gerald Williams '19	64
3	U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	65
4	Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	67
5	Jacksonville University	Gage Wilson '21	67
6	Tufts University	Alp Rodopman '17	80
7	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Carrson Pearce '21	87
8	University of California at Santa Barbara	Lucas Pierce '21	96
9	Yale University	Nicholas Baird '19	106
10	Yale University	Malcolm Lamphere '18	107
11	Texas A&M University at Galveston	John Hanna '19	119
12	Stanford University	Luke Muller '18	136
13	Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	137
14	U. S. Naval Academy	Maximilian Guerriero '21	138
15	University of Michigan	Mason Wolters '18	170
16	University of Wisconsin	Charlie Kutschenreuter '19	185
17	University of Wisconsin	Korbin Kierstead '19	185
18	University of Washington	Erik Skeel '20	194

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT
College of Charleston	Stefano Peschiera '18	1	7	3	2	3	4	4	2	4	4	11	5	50
College of Charleston	Gerald Williams '19	12	9	2	11	5	2	1	3	9	2	6	2	64
U. S. Naval Academy	Gary Prieto '18	5	3	1	5	7	10	8	1	7	3	2	13	65
Boston College	Scott Rasmussen '20	3	6	4	8	4	1	7	14	2	7	5	6	67
Jacksonville University	Gage Wilson '21	4	2	7	18	1	8	2	8	1	1	7	8	67
Tufts University	Alp Rodopman '17	2	11	10	10	6	6	9	7	5	9	1	4	80
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Carrson Pearce '21	RAF	4	12	4	12	12	5	4	6	5	3	1	87
University of California at Santa Barbara	Lucas Pierce '21	6	8	15	1	10	5	3	5	10	6	12	15	96
Yale University	Nicholas Baird '19	8	1	9	3	13	11	10	16	3	14	4	14	106
Yale University	Malcolm Lamphere '18	11	16	5	7	2	7	11	12	12	11	10	3	107
Texas A&M University at Galveston	John Hanna '19	7	13	6	13	8	9	6	6	13	15	14	9	119
Stanford University	Luke Muller '18	10	12	11	9	11	3	17	10	8	13	16	16	136
Georgetown University	Clay Broussard '18	13	14	14	6	14	15	13	11	14	8	8	7	137
U. S. Naval Academy	Maximilian Guerriero '21	15	5	8	17	9	13	14	9	11	16	9	12	138
University of Michigan	Mason Wolters '18	14	10	13	15	17	16	12	17	15	12	18	11	170
University of Wisconsin	Charlie Kutschenreuter '19	9	18	18	16	15	17	16	15	18	18	15	10	185
University of Wisconsin	Korbin Kierstead '19	16	15	16	12	16	14	15	18	16	17	13	17	185
University of Washington	Erik Skeel '20	17	17	17	14	18	18	18	13	17	10	17	18	194

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 12 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Stefano Peschiera '18	College of Charleston Cougars 1	12/12	4.03	4.76	+0.73	95th → 99th	2.0	11%	4.2 / 6.5
2	Gerald Williams '19	College of Charleston Cougars 2	12/12	3.57	4.15	+0.58	92nd → 97th	1.3	14%	5.3 / 7.6
3	Gary Prieto '18	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	12/12	3.44	4.21	+0.77	89th → 97th	2.3	11%	5.4 / 8.0
4	Gage Wilson '21	Jacksonville University	12/12	2.79	3.79	+1.00	75th → 94th	3.2	5%	5.6 / 9.8
4	Scott Rasmussen '20	Boston College	12/12	3.16	4.19	+1.03	84th → 97th	3.9	7%	5.6 / 8.8
6	Alp Rodopman '17	Tufts University	12/12	3.34	3.89	+0.55	88th → 94th	1.3	29%	6.7 / 8.3
7	Carrson Pearce '21	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	12/12	2.93	3.93	+1.00	79th → 95th	3.4	16%	7.2 / 9.4
8	Lucas Pierce '21	University of California at Santa Barbara	12/12	3.18	3.31	+0.13	85th → 88th	0.1	40%	8.0 / 8.7
9	Nicholas Baird '19	Yale University Bulldogs 1	12/12	3.58	2.98	−0.60	92nd → 81st	1.9	73%	8.8 / 7.6
10	Malcolm Lamphere '18	Yale University Bulldogs 2	12/12	3.48	3.08	−0.40	90th → 83rd	0.8	69%	8.9 / 8.0
11	John Hanna '19	Texas A&M University at Galveston	12/12	3.00	2.98	−0.02	82nd → 81st	0.0	62%	9.9 / 9.3
12	Luke Muller '18	Stanford University	12/12	2.90	2.47	−0.43	78th → 62nd	0.9	81%	11.3 / 9.5
13	Clay Broussard '18	Georgetown University	12/12	2.60	2.59	−0.00	68th → 68th	0.0	70%	11.4 / 10.3
14	Maximilian Guerriero '21	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	12/12	2.69	2.46	−0.23	71st → 62nd	0.3	69%	11.5 / 10.1
15	Mason Wolters '18	University of Michigan	12/12	2.14	1.74	−0.40	56th → 43rd	0.7	84%	14.2 / 11.6
16	Charlie Kutschenreuter '19	University of Wisconsin Badgers 2	12/12	1.74	0.98	−0.76	43rd → 22nd	2.2	90%	15.4 / 12.4
16	Korbin Kierstead '19	University of Wisconsin Badgers 1	12/12	1.69	1.51	−0.18	42nd → 38th	0.2	88%	15.4 / 12.6
18	Erik Skeel '20	University of Washington	12/12	1.78	0.53	−1.25	44th → 14th	5.8	98%	16.2 / 12.5

Conditions — 11/04/2017 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 70% · Pressure 1017.4 hPa

Temperature

76°F

↑ 81°F ↓ 65°F

Feels like 78°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.7 kn

avg · max 8.7 kn

Gusts to 17.3 kn

From NE (36°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover25% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity70% Pressure1017.4 hPa

What this breeze does at South Florida — from fleet racing

Breeze: NE about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at South Florida in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.07)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at South Florida by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (75 labelled fleet-race days at South Florida).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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