St. Mary's College of Maryland '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.93 (fleet 4.04) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 46–28 (62%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 21–10 | — |
| Fall 2015 | 1 | 12–5 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 13–13 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (74 matches) the record is 46–28 against 42.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.4). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.60 | 3.32 | 14–7 | 14.7 | −0.28 | 0.1 | 78% |
| 2016-03-05 | GW Team Race | skipper | 3.59 | 3.43 | 7–3 | 7.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2015-11-07 | Hap Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.46 | 4.22 | 12–5 | 9.6 | +0.76 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2015-03-28 | Jan T. Friis Team Race | skipper | 3.31 | 1.55 | 2–10 | 5.3 | −1.76 | 3.9 | >99% |
| 2015-03-14 | John Jackson Team Race | skipper | 3.33 | 5.16 | 11–3 | 5.7 | +1.83 | 6.7 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 6.7 | 4.19 |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 70% | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.2 | 3.98 |
| Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.3 | 3.57 |
| St. Mary's College of MD Fall Interconference | Skipper | A | 18 | 8.1 | 3.77 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.4 | 3.52 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.7 | 3.35 |
| Hap Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Navy Spring | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.8 | 4.03 |
| John Jackson Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Jan T. Friis Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 17% | — |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinals | Skipper | B | 1 | 7.0 | — |
| America Trophy/MAISA Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.0 | 3.74 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.6 | 3.72 |
| Gill College Sailing Coed National Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.9 | 4.09 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.0 | 5.62 |
| St. Mary's Fall Inter-Conference | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.4 | 4.02 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 7 | 3.7 | 4.02 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.1 | 3.72 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.9 | 3.18 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 13 | 9.2 | 3.45 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| South #1 Dinghy Qualifier | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.5 | 3.23 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.8 | 3.59 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
