University of Wisconsin '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.94 (fleet 2.68) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 15–18 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 15–18 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (33 matches) the record is 15–18 against 14.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-27 | LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.56 | 2.14 | 2–13 | 2.4 | −0.42 | 0.1 | 82% |
| 2017-04-29 | MCSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.10 | 2.31 | 13–5 | 12.4 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 48% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 11.4 | 2.50 |
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.2 | 2.03 |
| ODU Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.1 | 2.44 |
| MCSA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 1.4 | 3.96 |
| MCSA Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| MCSA Coed Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 3.0 | 3.30 |
| LaserPerformance Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 13% | — |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | A | 12 | 14.6 | 2.16 |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.8 | 2.75 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.0 | 2.57 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.2 | 2.43 |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.7 | 2.48 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.6 | 2.78 |
| MCSA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 1.7 | 2.75 |
| MCSA Co-ed Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.0 | 3.25 |
| Gill Coed Eastern Semifinal | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.5 | 2.78 |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.8 | 2.96 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 2.9 | 2.84 |
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.4 | 3.11 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.2 | 2.17 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.5 | 2.05 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.0 | 3.84 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 8.7 | 2.47 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.5 | 3.71 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 7.2 | 2.83 |
| Fall Fury | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.8 | 2.75 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Top-Sider Women's Nationals Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 9.3 | 2.96 |
| Navy Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 16.7 | 0.86 |
| Charleston Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 8.5 | 1.96 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wisco Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.4 | 3.33 |
| Navy Fall Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.8 | 2.05 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
