Laser South

HostNavy
Date09/08/2012
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatLaser
ScoringSinglehanded

#	School	Sailor	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Chris Barnard '13	33
2	Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	75
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	75
4	Georgetown University	Nevin Snow '16	76
5	University of Pennsylvania	Michael Russom '13	94
6	U. S. Naval Academy	George Prieto '13	124
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Devin Laviano '13	130
8	Old Dominion University	Collin Leon '13	132
9	U. S. Naval Academy	Markus Edegran '16	139
10	Old Dominion University	Evan Hoffmann '14	151
11	Old Dominion University	Zach Runci '13	174
12	U. S. Naval Academy	Michael Grove '14	191
13	Old Dominion University	Daniel Lochner '15	192
14	U. S. Naval Academy	Lukas Edegran '13	198
15	U. S. Naval Academy	Charles Peck '15	202
16	George Washington University	Ian Connors '13	243
17	Villanova University	William Joumas '15	244
18	George Washington University	Benjaim Helfand '16	261

School	Sailor	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	R13	R14	R15	R16	TOT
Georgetown University	Chris Barnard '13	1	1	1	2	1	3	1	2	2	8	4	1	1	1	3	1	33
Georgetown University	Greg Martinez '18	2	9	3	1	3	1	3	1	1	10	8	10	12	5	4	2	75
St. Mary's College of Maryland	John Wallace '14	11	5	4	3	2	2	2	7	3	1	6	4	8	3	9	5	75
Georgetown University	Nevin Snow '16	5	2	2	4	6	4	5	4	4	4	15	2	5	6	1	7	76
University of Pennsylvania	Michael Russom '13	9	3	9	5	4	5	4	3	8	3	1	8	6	10	10	6	94
U. S. Naval Academy	George Prieto '13	15	4	15	7	5	13	16	8	6	9	2	3	2	4	6	9	124
U. S. Naval Academy	Devin Laviano '13	12	10	7	8	8	12	10	6	7	5	7	13	11	2	2	10	130
Old Dominion University	Collin Leon '13	6	17	8	14	10	7	6	5	5	2	3	5	7	11	8	18	132
U. S. Naval Academy	Markus Edegran '16	3	8	12	11	13	6	7	11	11	13	13	11	4	8	5	3	139
Old Dominion University	Evan Hoffmann '14	8	6	5	9	7	8	11	12	9	6	11	16	17	7	15	4	151
Old Dominion University	Zach Runci '13	4	7	10	6	14	9	18	BKD	12	7	16	9	9	12	16	14	174
U. S. Naval Academy	Michael Grove '14	7	11	6	15	17	10	9	16	16	12	14	15	3	15	14	11	191
Old Dominion University	Daniel Lochner '15	10	12	14	12	12	11	14	14	10	DSQ	9	7	10	16	7	15	192
U. S. Naval Academy	Lukas Edegran '13	14	14	16	17	15	16	12	10	14	11	5	6	15	9	11	13	198
U. S. Naval Academy	Charles Peck '15	13	13	11	10	9	14	8	DNF	13	OCS	12	14	13	14	12	8	202
George Washington University	Ian Connors '13	16	16	17	16	16	17	15	13	15	14	10	17	14	13	17	17	243
Villanova University	William Joumas '15	18	15	13	13	11	15	13	9	17	15	17	18	18	18	18	16	244
George Washington University	Benjaim Helfand '16	17	18	18	18	18	18	17	15	18	16	18	12	16	17	13	12	261

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

Division A 18 boats · 16 races

Fin	Skipper	School	Races	Rating before	Perf. rating	Δ	Percentile before → perf.	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)	Avg finish actual / exp.
1	Chris Barnard '13	Georgetown University Hoyas 1	16/16	3.51	5.48	+1.97	91st → 99th	13.1	<1%	2.1 / 6.0
2	Greg Martinez '18	Georgetown University Hoyas 2	16/16	2.89	3.64	+0.75	78th → 93rd	2.8	6%	4.7 / 7.5
2	John Wallace '14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	16/16	2.63	3.76	+1.13	69th → 93rd	6.1	3%	4.7 / 8.1
4	Nevin Snow '16	Georgetown University Hoyas 3	16/16	3.17	3.63	+0.46	84th → 92nd	1.1	14%	4.8 / 6.8
5	Michael Russom '13	University of Pennsylvania	16/16	1.99	3.39	+1.40	51st → 89th	9.2	4%	5.9 / 9.9
6	George Prieto '13	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	16/16	2.13	2.44	+0.31	56th → 62nd	0.5	25%	7.8 / 9.5
7	Devin Laviano '13	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	16/16	2.30	2.68	+0.37	60th → 71st	0.8	32%	8.1 / 9.1
8	Collin Leon '13	Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	16/16	2.42	2.15	−0.27	61st → 56th	0.4	44%	8.2 / 8.7
9	Markus Edegran '16	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5	16/16	2.55	2.43	−0.12	67th → 62nd	0.1	59%	8.7 / 8.4
10	Evan Hoffmann '14	Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	16/16	2.19	2.08	−0.11	57th → 54th	0.1	53%	9.4 / 9.3
11	Zach Runci '13	Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	16/16	1.91	1.72	−0.19	48th → 43rd	0.2	68%	11.4 / 10.2
12	Michael Grove '14	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4	16/16	2.54	1.31	−1.24	66th → 30th	11.1	92%	11.9 / 8.5
13	Daniel Lochner '15	Old Dominion University Big Blue	16/16	2.04	1.79	−0.25	53rd → 44th	0.4	88%	12.0 / 9.7
14	Lukas Edegran '13	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	16/16	2.02	1.44	−0.59	53rd → 34th	2.4	84%	12.4 / 9.9
15	Charles Peck '15	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 6	16/16	1.91	1.89	−0.01	48th → 48th	0.0	84%	12.6 / 10.1
16	Ian Connors '13	George Washington University Colonials 1	16/16	1.12	0.81	−0.31	25th → 18th	0.6	93%	15.2 / 12.0
17	William Joumas '15	Villanova University	16/16	0.02	0.29	+0.27	6th → 10th	0.3	64%	15.2 / 14.4
18	Benjaim Helfand '16	George Washington University Colonials 2	16/16	0.68	-0.49	−1.17	17th → 3rd	5.6	96%	16.3 / 13.0

Conditions — 09/08/2012 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 74% · Pressure 1005.1 hPa

Temperature

80°F

↑ 85°F ↓ 74°F

Feels like 83°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

11.3 kn

avg · max 13.3 kn

Gusts to 26.8 kn

From SSW (203°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity74% Pressure1005.1 hPa Rain0.25 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 13 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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