Hobart and William Smith Colleges '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.73 (fleet 3.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–34 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 5 | 45–34 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 15–15 against 16.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.71 | 3.84 | 6–7 | 5.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.87 | 3.43 | 9–8 | 10.2 | −0.44 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 12 | 6.6 | 4.32 |
| St. Mary's Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 22 | 54% | — |
| Gill Coed Championships | Skipper | A | 18 | 12.2 | 3.18 |
| Captain Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 17 | 53% | — |
| APS Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 13 | 46% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 18 | 4.5 | 4.36 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 89% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.5 | 3.69 |
| College Sailing Western Semifinal | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.6 | 4.23 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 18 | 4.6 | 4.18 |
| North Fall # 1 | Skipper | A | 13 | 2.8 | 3.93 |
| Nevin's Trophy | Skipper | A | 16 | 11.6 | 2.65 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.7 | 3.58 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.8 | 3.77 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | C | 4 | 11.8 | 2.44 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.2 | 3.19 |
| Gill Dinghy National Championship | Skipper | B | 3 | 6.0 | 4.37 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.2 | 3.14 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 5.0 | 3.96 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.7 | 3.51 |
| MAISA North #1 Qualifier | Skipper | B | 9 | 1.8 | 4.12 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.2 | 3.62 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.2 | 3.84 |
| Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 5 | 12.0 | 2.63 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Johnny Norfleet |  University of Vermont |
'13 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
