University of Vermont '13
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.73 (fleet 3.77) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–34 (57%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 5 | 45–34 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 15–15 against 16.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.0). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-05-25 | APS Team Race Championship | skipper | 3.71 | 3.84 | 6–7 | 5.8 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2013-04-06 | Captain Prosser Trophy | skipper | 3.87 | 3.43 | 9–8 | 10.2 | −0.44 | 0.4 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 17 | 12.4 | 2.51 |
| NEISA Coed Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.1 | 3.36 |
| 82nd Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | A | 16 | 9.8 | 2.80 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.8 | 2.71 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| 26th U S C Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 5.6 | 3.71 |
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.4 | 3.02 |
| Sherman Hoyt Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.8 | 2.94 |
| Navy Fall | Skipper | A | 19 | 11.7 | 2.83 |
| The Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 3.08 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.4 | 3.00 |
| Harry Anderson Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.8 | 3.19 |
| 70th Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 8.5 | 3.09 |
| Atlantic Coast Dinghies | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.2 | 2.59 |
| Spring 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| Old Guard | Skipper | A | 12 | 9.1 | 2.42 |
| Fall 2009 Team page Season | |||||
| Ne Freshman, Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.1 | 2.54 |
| Freshmen | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.3 | 3.09 |
| Central 6 | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.1 | 2.13 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Johnny Norfleet |  Hobart and William Smith Colleges |
'13 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
