Providence College Invite #2

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 8 12
2 Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 5 10 15
3 Brown University Brown University Bears 1 12 7 19
4 Brown University Brown University Bears 2 14 15 29
5 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 10 20 30
6 Providence College Providence College Friars 19 11 30
7 Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 20 19 39
8 University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 25 18 43
9 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 26 27 53
10 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 33 33 66
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 1 2 4 Ben Weigel '14
Hannah Duggan '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 2 2 1 5 No Show
Elizabeth Sczerzenie '15
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 3 4 3 10 Peter Sterflinger '17
Christopher Voorman '14
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 4 3 5 12 Emmett Weeks '14
Rachel Gutman '17
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 5 5 4 14 James Barry '16
Olivia Lord '17
Providence College Providence College Friars 6 6 7 19 Stephanie Burrell '16
Emilia Smith '17
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 7 7 6 20 Hayden Maguire '16
Kaylen Heath '16
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 8 9 8 25 Kelsey Martins '16 [1-2]
Paige Brown '14 [3]
Hanna Desilets '17 [1-2]
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 9 8 9 26 Josh Atchley '15
Deren Ertas '16
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears DNS DNS DNS 33 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 TOT Sailors
Brown University Brown University Bears 1 1 2 4 7 Macklin Fluehr '17
Haley Carter '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 4 1 8 Rolfe Glover '16
Caitlin Durand '15
Northeastern University Northeastern University Huskies 4 3 3 10 Matteo Alampi '17
Eleanor Grams '18
Providence College Providence College Friars 2 1 8 11 Lou Magarelli '16
Joseph Padavano '17
Brown University Brown University Bears 2 5 5 5 15 Emma Davis '17
Henry Sharpe '17
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs 8 8 2 18 Kelsey Delosh '17 [1-3]
Phoung Pham '17 [1-2]
Courtney Grippin '17 [3]
Salve Regina University Salve Regina University Seahawks 6 6 7 19 Matthew Miranda '17
Kathryn Travers '16
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 7 7 6 20 Erin Meltzer '14 [1-3]
Heather Ireland '15 [1-2]
Alexa Giovanis '17 [3]
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 9 9 9 27 Lara Hetzel '17
Peter Brody '14
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears DNS DNS DNS 33 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1113
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2224
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears335
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats446
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies557
Providence CollegeProvidence College Friars668
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks779
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos8810
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs991
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals10102

Division B

Team1B2B3B
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 1224
Brown UniversityBrown University Bears 2335
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears446
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats557
Northeastern UniversityNortheastern University Huskies668
Providence CollegeProvidence College Friars779
Salve Regina UniversitySalve Regina University Seahawks8810
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos991
University of Massachusetts at DartmouthUniversity of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs10102
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals113

Conditions — 11/02/2013 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1003.7 hPa

Temperature

59°F
↑ 65°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.8 kn
avg  ·  max 4.4 kn
Gusts to 10.9 kn
From SSE (147°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover50% Sunshine6.2 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1003.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Providence: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.22)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.29
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.28 ± 0.23)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.22 means a rating gap counts about 19% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Providence by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Providence, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →