University of Rhode Island '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.63 (fleet 2.25) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–20 (23%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 3 | 6–20 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (24 matches) the record is 6–18 against 5.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 2.00 | 2.14 | 5–14 | 4.6 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 50% |
| 2014-03-22 | Staake Trophy | skipper | 2.27 | 1.97 | 1–4 | 1.3 | −0.30 | 0.1 | 77% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Olympians Regatta Keelboat | Crew | A | 15 | 3.9 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | A | 3 | 11.7 | 0.57 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Staake Trophy | Skipper | TR | 23 | 48% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 23% | — |
| 70th Greater Boston Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.2 | 2.27 |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 3.92 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 3 | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.7 | 1.32 |
| 75th Annual Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 18 | 9.8 | 2.32 |
| Mt. Hope Bay Invitational | Skipper | B | 2 | 1.5 | 4.88 |
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 14 | 14.1 | 1.72 |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.5 | 2.12 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.7 | 2.16 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.9 | 2.73 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
