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# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 86
2 Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats 113
3 University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts 115
4 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 191
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 193
6 Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers 238
7 University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst 360
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 2 4 3 2 1 8 5 1 2 1 1 6 36 Rolfe Glover '16
Ryan Epprecht '18
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats A 3 1 2 1 5 2 3 2 5 3 5 7 39 Peter Sterflinger '17
Alexa Giovanis '17
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts A 1 6 1 3 4 4 6 6 3 4 2 1 41 Henry O'Brien '15
Sarah Bangs '16
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 6 3 5 5 2 1 2 9 4 2 7 4 50 Viktor Wettergren '14
Lucy Robison '18
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats A 5 7 6 4 3 6 8 7 6 5 6 3 66 Ryan Gershuny '18
Daniel Lee '18
Johnson and Wales University Johnson and Wales University Wildcats B 8 2 11 6 8 5 4 3 8 8 3 8 74 Thomas Pluchino '18
Amanda Balbi '17
University of Vermont University of Vermont Catamounts B 12 9 7 7 6 7 1 5 7 7 4 2 74 Mike Kanare '16
Will Craig '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 7 11 4 10 9 3 7 4 1 6 10 5 77 Tyler Paige '18
Ballard Blair '18
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers A 4 5 10 8 7 9 11 11 12 9 8 12 106 Joseph Dragon '17
George Luber '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 9 10 8 9 11 10 12 8 9 12 9 9 116 Grace Olsen '15
Rachel Hanford '18
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats B 10 12 9 11 10 11 9 10 11 10 11 11 125 Carl Noble '17
Casey Hargbol '17
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers B 11 8 12 12 12 12 10 12 10 11 12 10 132 Molly Cormican '18
Patrick Kapps '18
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst A DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 180 No Show
No Show
University of Massachusetts at Amherst University of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst B DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 180 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2011 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats111111111111
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst555555555555
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers222222222222
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats666666666666
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1333333333333
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2444444444444
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts777777777777

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Johnson and Wales UniversityJohnson and Wales University Wildcats888888888888
University of Massachusetts at AmherstUniversity of Massachusetts at Amherst U. Mass Amherst121212121212121212121212
Massachusetts Maritime AcademyMassachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers999999999999
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats131313131313131313131313
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1101010101010101010101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 2111111111111111111111111
University of VermontUniversity of Vermont Catamounts141414141414141414141414

Conditions — 04/25/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1007.0 hPa

Temperature

47°F
↑ 52°F   ↓ 38°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.7 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 21.4 kn
From W (266°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover46% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1007.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Mass Maritime: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.02
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.02 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mass Maritime by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (46 labelled days at Mass Maritime).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →