Roger Williams University '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 76.49 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.099 rating points from 84 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.83 (fleet 2.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–5 (50%) as crew 4–8 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 5–5 | 4–8 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 9–13 against 11.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-03-26 | BU Team Race | skipper | 2.32 | 1.15 | 5–5 | 7.2 | −1.16 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2017-03-18 | Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | crew | 2.50 | 2.17 | 4–8 | 4.7 | −0.32 | 0.2 | 79% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Wick/Shrew Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.0 | 2.60 |
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 9.7 | 2.03 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.2 | 1.41 |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 10.3 | 2.65 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.0 | 2.38 |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 13.4 | 2.33 |
| The Toni Deutsch MIT '58 Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 9.3 | 2.87 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 13.0 | 2.37 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta 2018 | Skipper | A | 8 | 15.4 | 2.51 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.7 | 2.66 |
| 2017 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 13.6 | 1.42 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 8 | 2.6 | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 8.8 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.8 | 2.64 |
| Ike Geiger Team Race Regatta | Crew | TR | 12 | 33% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 15 | 6.9 | — |
| Central Series 2 | Crew | B | 4 | 3.2 | — |
| BU Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| Fall 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Backup Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.8 | 2.93 |
| Victorian Coffee Urn Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 8.5 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.5 | 2.96 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | A | 3 | 14.3 | 2.62 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.4 | 2.35 |
| Callagy Ross Trophy | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.2 | 3.76 |
| Amanda Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.4 | 3.50 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.8 | 3.30 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.8 | 2.75 |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 14.6 | 1.70 |
| Gill Coed Western Semifinal | Crew | A | 12 | 7.1 | — |
| Gill Coed National Championship | Crew | A | 9 | 10.1 | — |
| Coast Guard Alumni Bowl | Crew | A | 4 | 5.5 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 10.7 | 2.32 |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 10.3 | 2.15 |
| Southern Series 5 | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.2 | 3.04 |
| Rose Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | 3.11 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.8 | 2.41 |
| NEISA Invitational at MIT | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.4 | 2.50 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.0 | 2.72 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.5 | 3.77 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Vietor Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 7.4 | 2.71 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.7 | 2.47 |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 11.3 | 1.94 |
| Central Series 3 | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.0 | 2.34 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.4 | 1.94 |
| Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 12.8 | 2.14 |
| President's Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.3 | 2.45 |
| Nickerson Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 9.0 | 1.80 |
| Firefly/ FJ Invitational Regatta | Skipper | B | 10 | 4.3 | 2.42 |
| Central Series 2 | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.3 | 2.53 |
| Central Series 6 | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.7 | 2.67 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
