University of Rhode Island '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.42 (fleet 3.34) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–21 (51%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 22–21 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 5–7 against 6.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-04-20 | Staake Trophy Team Race | skipper | 3.05 | 2.51 | 5–7 | 6.1 | −0.54 | 0.4 | 87% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | B | 12 | 10.8 | 2.87 |
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 41% | — |
| Staake Trophy Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.8 | 3.47 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Greater New York Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.5 | 1.65 |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 15 | 8.1 | 3.20 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.5 | 3.18 |
| 9th George Morris Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.9 | 4.00 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Professor Steadman Hood Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 13.0 | 1.78 |
| Roger Williams Invitational | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.2 | 2.73 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 18 | 13.1 | 1.97 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 5.5 | 2.85 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
