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Underdog Trophy

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 27 20 47
2 University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 40 42 82
3 Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 36 58 94
4 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 55 49 104
5 Boston University Boston University Terriers 61 67 128
6 Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 78 57 135
7 Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 103 32 135
8 Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 45 92 137
9 Williams College Williams College Ephs 69 106 175
10 Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 105 92 197
11 McGill University McGill University Redbirds 117 101 218
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 3 1 1 1 2 5 6 1 4 2 1 27 Sean Andrew '11
Kerry Duffy '11
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 2 3 8 3 1 2 2 6 3 3 3 36 Christopher Poole '13
Christopher Carter '14
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 5 2 4 2 4 3 3 2 9 4 2 40 Neal Drake '12 [1-11]
Rebecca Rothman '13 [1-8, 11]
Whit Durant '12 [9-10]
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 1 7 2 6 6 1 5 5 1 5 6 45 Tyler Black '11
Alison Rogers '12
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 4 4 6 4 5 8 1 4 2 10 7 55 Tommy Holmberg '13 [1-11]
Eve Boyce '13 [1-2, 7-8]
Christopher Calahan '12 [3-6, 9-10]
Ellie Hallett '13 [11]
Boston University Boston University Terriers 6 5 5 5 3 6 8 3 6 6 8 61 Alejandro Bancalari '13 [1-11]
Andrea Struve '14 [1-8]
Jamie Lansdowne '13 [9-11]
Williams College Williams College Ephs 8 6 7 7 7 4 4 9 7 1 9 69 Timothy Lorenzen '12 [1-11]
Emily Cook '13 [1-10]
Molly Mcentee '14 [11]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 7 8 3 8 8 7 9 10 5 9 4 78 Nicholas Dragone '14
Sean Willerford '14
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 11 9 9 10 10 10 7 7 10 8 DNF 103 Molly Haley '13
Rebecca Vaadia '13
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 10 DNF 10 9 9 9 10 8 11 7 10 105 Andrea Verdeja '14 [1-8]
Jacob Hardy '13 [9-11]
Helaine Meyer '14 [1-2]
Jacob Hardy '13 [3-8]
Davida Judelson '12 [9-11]
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 9 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 8 11 5 117 Wesley Yland '13
Leila Pike '12
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 TOT Sailors
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 2 4 2 1 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 20 John Giuliano '11
Brian Pracon '11
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Cardinals 1 1 5 2 3 1 3 2 4 5 5 32 John Mcglynn '13
Caroline Eisenmann '12
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Wildcats 4 2 3 3 7 4 BKD 4 2 7 2 42 Justin Marks '14 [1-6]
Christopher Edwards '11 [7-11]
Brittany Healy '11 [1-2]
Patrick Connelly '14 [3-6]
Alyssa Reetz '13 [7-11]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 3 3 4 5 1 6 5 5 6 8 3 49 David Pierce '12 [1-11]
Ellie Hallett '13 [1-8]
Kate Carlucci '13 [9-11]
Middlebury College Middlebury College Panthers 7 5 7 4 10 2 2 3 8 3 6 57 Jack Kerby-Miller '14
Stephanie Roush '14
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Mariners 6 6 6 6 4 5 4 6 7 4 4 58 John Joseph '12
Zachary Vickers '12
Boston University Boston University Terriers 5 7 1 7 5 BKD 6 7 5 9 9 67 Cameron Fraser '14 [1-6]
Jacob Waldman '13 [7-11]
Keeton Leisure '14 [1-6]
Amherst College Amherst College Lord Jeffs 9 8 DNF 8 8 8 7 9 9 6 8 92 Stephanie Dowling '12
Johanna Bienz '12
Brandeis University Brandeis University Judges 11 DNF 10 DNF 11 7 8 10 3 1 7 92 Josh Basseches '12 [1-6]
Jared Dunn '13 [7-11]
Jeanna Perry '13 [1-2]
Liat Zabludovsky '13 [3-6]
Alison White '13 [7-11]
McGill University McGill University Redbirds 8 9 8 10 9 9 10 8 10 10 10 101 Emerson Krock '12
Parrish Wright '12
Williams College Williams College Ephs 10 10 9 9 6 10 9 BKD 11 11 11 106 Joshua Revkin '13 [1-11]
Molly Mcentee '14 [1-8]
Emily Cook '13 [9-11]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2010 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs113355779911
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats2244668810101
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers3355779911112
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges4466881010113
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies9911112244668
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners5577991111224
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds6688101011335
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers7799111122446
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats8810101133557
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1010113355779
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs11112244668810

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B
Amherst CollegeAmherst College Lord Jeffs22446688101011
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats3355779911111
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers4466881010112
Brandeis UniversityBrandeis University Judges5577991111223
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies1010113355778
Maine Maritime AcademyMaine Maritime Academy Mariners6688101011334
McGill UniversityMcGill University Redbirds7799111122445
Middlebury CollegeMiddlebury College Panthers8810101133556
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire Wildcats9911112244667
Wesleyan UniversityWesleyan University Cardinals1111224466889
Williams CollegeWilliams College Ephs113355779910
School / Team SkipperCrew
Amherst College Amherst College Tyler Black '11 Alison Rogers '12
Lord Jeffs Stephanie Dowling '12 Johanna Bienz '12
Bates College Bates College Tommy Holmberg '13 [1-11] Eve Boyce '13 [1-2, 7-8]
Christopher Calahan '12 [3-6, 9-10]
Ellie Hallett '13 [11]
Bobcats David Pierce '12 [1-11] Ellie Hallett '13 [1-8]
Kate Carlucci '13 [9-11]
Boston University Boston University Alejandro Bancalari '13 [1-11] Andrea Struve '14 [1-8]
Jamie Lansdowne '13 [9-11]
Terriers Cameron Fraser '14 [1-6]
Jacob Waldman '13 [7-11]		 Keeton Leisure '14 [1-6]
Brandeis University Brandeis University Andrea Verdeja '14 [1-8]
Jacob Hardy '13 [9-11]		 Helaine Meyer '14 [1-2]
Jacob Hardy '13 [3-8]
Davida Judelson '12 [9-11]
Judges Josh Basseches '12 [1-6]
Jared Dunn '13 [7-11]		 Jeanna Perry '13 [1-2]
Liat Zabludovsky '13 [3-6]
Alison White '13 [7-11]
Maine Maritime Academy Maine Maritime Academy Christopher Poole '13 Christopher Carter '14
Mariners John Joseph '12 Zachary Vickers '12
McGill University McGill University Wesley Yland '13 Leila Pike '12
Redbirds Emerson Krock '12 Parrish Wright '12
Middlebury College Middlebury College Nicholas Dragone '14 Sean Willerford '14
Panthers Jack Kerby-Miller '14 Stephanie Roush '14
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Sean Andrew '11 Kerry Duffy '11
Huskies John Giuliano '11 Brian Pracon '11
University of New Hampshire University of New Hampshire Neal Drake '12 [1-11] Rebecca Rothman '13 [1-8, 11]
Whit Durant '12 [9-10]
Wildcats Justin Marks '14 [1-6]
Christopher Edwards '11 [7-11]		 Brittany Healy '11 [1-2]
Patrick Connelly '14 [3-6]
Alyssa Reetz '13 [7-11]
Wesleyan University Wesleyan University Molly Haley '13 Rebecca Vaadia '13
Cardinals John Mcglynn '13 Caroline Eisenmann '12
Williams College Williams College Timothy Lorenzen '12 [1-11] Emily Cook '13 [1-10]
Molly Mcentee '14 [11]
Ephs Joshua Revkin '13 [1-11] Molly Mcentee '14 [1-8]
Emily Cook '13 [9-11]

Conditions — 10/30/2010 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1012.6 hPa

Temperature

50°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 40°F
Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.3 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 25.7 kn
From WSW (241°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover77% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1012.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 12 kn · NW 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Brandeis: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.04 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.46 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brandeis by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (no labelled days at Brandeis: the all-venue pattern is shown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →