Brown University '16
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 1.84 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.074 rating points from 323 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →No season rating yet: needs 8+ crewed races in a season.
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.61 (fleet 2.22) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 22–15 (59%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | — | 6–4 |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | — | 16–11 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 22–15 against 23.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Regatta | crew | 3.14 | 3.32 | 6–4 | 5.6 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2015-04-11 | Mystic Lake Team Race | crew | 2.76 | 2.53 | 5–6 | 5.4 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 75% |
| 2015-03-28 | Duplin | crew | 2.50 | 2.10 | 11–5 | 12.1 | −0.40 | 0.3 | 85% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Crew | A | 12 | 6.2 | — |
| Sperry College Sailing Women's Nationals Women's | Crew | A | 18 | 8.1 | — |
| Southern Series 7 | Crew | A | 9 | 5.0 | — |
| Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 14 | 7.1 | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Crew | A | 12 | 6.5 | — |
| Navy Spring Women's Women's | Crew | A | 5 | 9.6 | — |
| Joseph R. Duplin Regatta Women's | Crew | TR | 10 | 60% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 5.0 | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 4 | 5.5 | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Weekday Invite Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 1.8 | 3.34 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 12.0 | — |
| Toni Deutsch Regatta Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 10.7 | — |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 14.4 | — |
| Southern Series 5 | Crew | A | 6 | 9.3 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 8 | 9.1 | — |
| Mt. Hope Bay/Southern 1 | Crew | A | 4 | 7.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Crew | A | 10 | 12.4 | — |
| Harvard Invitational | Crew | A | 6 | 3.2 | — |
| The Crews Regatta | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.0 | 1.48 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Women's Women's | Crew | B | 14 | 8.8 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | A | 6 | 8.3 | — |
| NEISA Women's Champs, Reed Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 10.0 | — |
| Mystic Lake Team Race | Crew | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Duplin Women's | Crew | TR | 18 | 61% | — |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Sperry Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Crew | B | 2 | 10.0 | — |
| President's Trophy Women's | Crew | B | 11 | 4.4 | — |
| Navy Women's Women's | Crew | B | 7 | 13.0 | — |
| BU Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 8.2 | — |
| Admiral Alymers Trophy | Crew | A | 12 | 5.0 | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Southern Series 4 | Crew | B | 10 | 7.6 | — |
| Southern Series 3 | Crew | A | 14 | 4.2 | — |
| RI States, 2nd Sister Esther Annual | Crew | A | 5 | 7.6 | — |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 10 | 9.4 | — |
| Dark of Night Regatta | Crew | B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Central Series 6 | Crew | A | 6 | 5.5 | — |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Wood Trophy | Crew | B | 5 | 6.6 | — |
| Southern Series Five | Crew | B | 6 | 3.5 | — |
| 22nd O'Toole Trophy @ SRU | Crew | B | 6 | 7.5 | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regis Bowl Women's | Crew | B | 12 | 8.0 | — |
| RI State Champs, Sister Esther Open | Crew | A | 6 | 15.5 | — |
| PC Invite | Crew | B | 4 | 1.8 | — |
| Oberg | Crew | B | 7 | 13.7 | — |
| Nickerson Trophy | Crew | A | 10 | 7.8 | — |
| Gardner Island Invite SS3 | Crew | A | 14 | 7.1 | — |
| Dark of Night | Crew | A | 3 | 10.3 | — |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Crew | B | 8 | 4.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
