| # | School | Sailor | TOT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Mary Hall '15 | 27 |
| 2 |  |
Georgetown University | Lola Bushnell '18 | 47 |
| 3 | |
Georgetown University | Nancy Hagood '14 | 47 |
| 4 |  |
Old Dominion University | Andrea Luna '15 | 54 |
| 5 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Greer Wattson '17 | 55 |
| 6 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Emma Ferris '15 | 64 |
| 7 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Hannah Hughes '17 | 66 |
| 8 |  |
Cornell University | Gillian Boehringer '18 | 70 |
| 9 | |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Carolyn Smith '17 | 80 |
| 10 | |
Georgetown University | Mary Kate Mezzetti '16 | 84 |
| 11 | |
Cornell University | Quinn Howes '16 | 85 |
| 12 |  |
George Washington University | Taylor Brimberg '18 | 96 |
| 13 | |
Georgetown University | Madeline Higgins '16 | 97 |
| 14 | |
George Washington University | Kia Olsson '18 | 101 |
| 15 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Kelly Monahan '18 | 106 |
| 16 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Erin Condon '17 | 113 |
| 17 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Megan Hough '16 | 113 |
| 18 | |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Christine Moloney '17 | 121 |
| 19 | |
Old Dominion University | Jaclyn Hollander '15 | 126 |
| 20 | |
U. S. Naval Academy | Jillian Foley '18 | 128 |
Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.
Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.
The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mary Hall '15 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 8/8 | 3.00 | 4.09 | +1.09 | 82nd → 95th | 2.7 | 6% | 3.4 / 6.5 |
| 2 | Lola Bushnell '18 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 8/8 | 2.48 | 3.02 | +0.54 | 62nd → 83rd | 0.8 | 21% | 5.9 / 8.0 |
| 2 | Nancy Hagood '14 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 8/8 | 2.45 | 2.98 | +0.53 | 62nd → 81st | 0.8 | 20% | 5.9 / 8.1 |
| 4 | Andrea Luna '15 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 1 | 8/8 | 2.49 | 2.50 | +0.01 | 63rd → 64th | 0.0 | 33% | 6.8 / 8.0 |
| 5 | Greer Wattson '17 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 8/8 | 1.46 | 2.46 | +1.00 | 36th → 62nd | 2.4 | 11% | 6.9 / 10.9 |
| 6 | Emma Ferris '15 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 8/8 | 1.74 | 2.45 | +0.71 | 43rd → 62nd | 1.4 | 23% | 8.0 / 10.1 |
| 7 | Hannah Hughes '17 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 | 8/8 | 1.72 | 2.32 | +0.60 | 43rd → 60th | 1.0 | 24% | 8.2 / 10.2 |
| 8 | Gillian Boehringer '18 | Cornell University Big Red 1 | 8/8 | 1.55 | 2.19 | +0.64 | 39th → 57th | 1.1 | 25% | 8.8 / 10.7 |
| 9 | Carolyn Smith '17 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 8/8 | 1.93 | 1.94 | +0.02 | 48th → 50th | 0.0 | 57% | 10.0 / 9.7 |
| 10 | Mary Kate Mezzetti '16 | Georgetown University Hoyas 4 | 8/8 | 2.11 | 1.58 | −0.53 | 55th → 39th | 1.0 | 68% | 10.5 / 9.1 |
| 11 | Quinn Howes '16 | Cornell University Big Red 2 | 8/8 | 1.65 | 1.75 | +0.09 | 41st → 43rd | 0.0 | 53% | 10.6 / 10.5 |
| 12 | Taylor Brimberg '18 | George Washington University Colonials 2 | 8/8 | 1.43 | 1.36 | −0.08 | 34th → 32nd | 0.0 | 61% | 12.0 / 11.1 |
| 13 | Madeline Higgins '16 | Georgetown University Hoyas 3 | 8/8 | 1.12 | 0.97 | −0.15 | 25th → 22nd | 0.1 | 50% | 12.1 / 12.1 |
| 14 | Kia Olsson '18 | George Washington University Colonials 1 | 8/8 | 0.72 | 1.44 | +0.72 | 17th → 34th | 1.5 | 42% | 12.6 / 13.1 |
| 15 | Kelly Monahan '18 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 | 8/8 | 1.29 | 1.28 | −0.01 | 30th → 30th | 0.0 | 70% | 13.2 / 11.5 |
| 16 | Erin Condon '17 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 | 8/8 | 0.60 | 0.97 | +0.36 | 15th → 22nd | 0.4 | 56% | 14.1 / 13.5 |
| 16 | Megan Hough '16 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 | 8/8 | 1.07 | 0.18 | −0.88 | 25th → 9th | 2.0 | 73% | 14.1 / 12.1 |
| 18 | Christine Moloney '17 | Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 | 8/8 | 1.43 | 0.80 | −0.62 | 34th → 18th | 1.4 | 90% | 15.1 / 11.0 |
| 19 | Jaclyn Hollander '15 | Old Dominion University Monarchs 2 | 8/8 | 1.23 | -0.23 | −1.46 | 29th → 4th | 6.1 | 90% | 15.8 / 11.7 |
| 20 | Jillian Foley '18 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 | 8/8 | 1.09u | 0.11 | −0.99 | 25th → 8th | 3.0 | 90% | 16.0 / 12.1 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
