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SchoolSailor R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 TOT
Georgetown University Georgetown University Haddon Hughes '19 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 2 6 2 2 2 27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Lola Bushnell '18 2 2 2 2 4 1 1 3 6 2 5 5 10 45
George Washington University George Washington University Riley Legault '19 BKD 5 6 8 2 3 4 6 1 5 9 3 1 57
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Carolyn Smith '17 5 3 5 4 15 6 5 1 8 3 1 1 3 60
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Hannah Hughes '17 6 8 4 9 5 4 8 8 10 1 4 4 9 80
George Washington University George Washington University Sarah Alexander '19 3 4 7 5 3 8 9 11 5 14 8 6 5 88
Georgetown University Georgetown University Rose Edwards '18 7 6 3 13 8 5 7 12 7 7 11 11 4 101
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Julia Monro '17 10 9 9 7 13 15 3 7 9 11 7 7 17 124
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Greer Wattson '17 4 16 8 3 7 11 6 15 12 17 6 12 14 131
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Olivia Windemuller '19 8 7 10 10 18 9 10 10 11 16 3 14 12 138
Georgetown University Georgetown University Mary Kate Mezzetti '16 12 12 15 14 10 10 11 5 4 15 15 8 8 139
George Washington University George Washington University Taylor Brimberg '18 15 13 12 11 12 16 16 2 13 8 10 9 6 143
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Erin Condon '17 9 10 11 6 6 7 14 9 16 12 12 17 15 144
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Bailey Carter '19 11 15 13 16 9 13 12 18 3 9 14 10 7 150
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Sarah Warren '18 14 11 16 15 14 12 13 16 14 4 17 13 13 172
Christopher Newport University Christopher Newport University Amanda Attardi '17 13 14 14 12 17 14 17 13 17 13 13 16 16 189
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Grace Mason '16 16 17 17 17 16 17 18 14 15 10 16 15 11 199
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Megan Hough '16 DNF DNF DNF DNF 11 18 15 17 18 18 DNS DNS DNS 230

Performance rating asks, for each skipper: holding every other boat fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? Boats are valued with the singlehanded rating rather than the fleet rating: 0.79 × the skipper's fleet rating from the week before the event (unrated skippers start at 1.11); the skipper's own singlehanded offset. Strength differences are scaled by 0.80 before they become probabilities, the value that calibrates the model on seasons it had not seen. Non-finishes (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out of the fitting, as in the rating model.

Percentile places a rating among the 309 ICSA sailors with a singlehanded rating who raced the discipline in the last three seasons. Surprise is how many bits more surprising the finishes were at the pre-event rating than at the performance rating. P(this good or better) simulates the event 3,000 times at the pre-event ratings, with the same regatta-form model as the fleet analysis pages, and reports how often the skipper would score this many points or fewer in the races they sailed.

The singlehanded offsets are the current ones (the discipline files keep no weekly history), so a skipper's own offset has already seen this event; offsets are shrunk hard, so the effect is a few hundredths at most. Only skippers are rated.

  • u no fleet rating — the model's level for unrated skippers is the baseline.

Division A  18 boats · 13 races

FinSkipperSchool Races Rating
before		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.
1Haddon Hughes '19Georgetown University Hoyas 313/132.945.15+2.2180th → 99th13.3<1%2.1 / 6.4
2Lola Bushnell '18Georgetown University Hoyas 113/132.533.93+1.4065th → 95th6.81%3.5 / 7.5
3Carolyn Smith '17St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 113/132.273.22+0.9559th → 85th3.53%4.6 / 8.2
4Riley Legault '19George Washington University Colonials 113/132.493.51+1.0263rd → 91st3.815%5.5 / 7.6
5Hannah Hughes '17U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 213/131.942.89+0.9550th → 78th3.78%6.2 / 9.1
6Sarah Alexander '19George Washington University Colonials 213/131.962.68+0.7350th → 71st2.314%6.8 / 9.0
7Rose Edwards '18Georgetown University Hoyas 213/132.182.38+0.2057th → 61st0.239%7.8 / 8.5
8Julia Monro '17St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 313/131.15u1.73+0.5825th → 43rd1.428%9.5 / 11.2
9Greer Wattson '17St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 213/131.961.52−0.4450th → 38th1.166%10.1 / 9.0
10Olivia Windemuller '19Old Dominion University Monarchs 213/131.111.51+0.4125th → 38th0.736%10.6 / 11.4
11Mary Kate Mezzetti '16Georgetown University Hoyas 413/132.391.51−0.8961st → 38th4.986%10.7 / 8.0
12Taylor Brimberg '18George Washington University Colonials 313/131.431.44+0.0134th → 35th0.058%11.0 / 10.5
13Erin Condon '17Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 213/130.841.35+0.5119th → 31st1.137%11.1 / 11.9
14Bailey Carter '19Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 113/131.971.21−0.7550th → 28th3.282%11.5 / 9.1
15Sarah Warren '18Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 313/131.290.96−0.3330th → 22nd0.682%13.2 / 10.8
16Amanda Attardi '17Christopher Newport University13/131.080.70−0.3825th → 17th0.891%14.5 / 11.3
17Grace Mason '16Old Dominion University Monarchs 113/131.54-0.15−1.6838th → 4th13.998%15.3 / 10.1
18Megan Hough '16U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 113/131.07-0.48−1.5425th → 3rd4.4>99%17.7 / 11.4

Conditions — 09/12/2015 (8am–6pm)

🌧️Moderate rain
Humidity 85%  ·  Pressure 1006.1 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 71°F
Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
7.0 kn
avg  ·  max 8.2 kn
Gusts to 19.0 kn
From SSE (166°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover99% Sunshine4.5 hrs Humidity85% Pressure1006.1 hPa Rain0.72 in

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.11)
Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.11 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →