Philly Fleet Race

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 18 20 38
2 Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 50 30 80
3 Villanova University Villanova University Villanova 45 42 87
4 Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 27 65 92
5 Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 52 57 109
6 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 71 76 147
7 Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 91 65 156
8 University of Delaware University of Delaware Delaware 78 82 160
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 18 Gerard Tonachel '13
Lara Paul '15
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 2 1 2 3 3 2 2 4 2 2 2 2 27 Paul Stevens '14
Shawn Diamond '13
Villanova University Villanova University Villanova 3 3 4 4 5 7 3 3 3 1 5 4 45 Sarah Celone '13 [1-8]
Domenic Re '15 [9-12]
Kathryn Shimko '12 [1-8]
Marisa Demourkas '12 [9-12]
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 5 7 3 2 2 6 4 2 5 5 6 3 50 Joan Boyle '14
Stephen Ciccariello '13
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 4 2 5 6 4 3 5 5 4 4 4 6 52 Rachel Bennung '12
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 6 8 6 7 7 4 7 6 6 6 3 5 71 Jack Swikart '15
University of Delaware University of Delaware Delaware 7 4 7 5 6 5 6 7 8 7 8 8 78 Matthew Sussmane '15 [1-8]
Joseph Alalou '13 [9-12]
Hannah Patry '16 [1-8]
Ryan Murdy '13 [9-12]
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 8 6 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 91 Geneva O'Brien '14
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens 1 1 1 1 4 3 1 1 1 1 3 2 20 Christian Geary '14
Kyle Ripley '13
Drexel University Drexel University Dragons 2 2 4 2 1 1 3 4 2 3 2 4 30 Jason Sinclair '13
Melanie Musso '15
Villanova University Villanova University Villanova 3 3 8 5 2 2 7 3 5 2 1 1 42 Craig Williams '11 [1-6]
Scott Barnhill '14 [7-12]
Daniel Clark '15 [1-6]
Nelson Rice '15 [7-12]
Penn State University Penn State University Nittany Lions 5 5 5 8 7 7 2 2 3 4 6 3 57 Eliza Crawford '14
Monmouth University Monmouth University Monmouth 4 6 3 6 5 6 6 7 4 6 5 7 65 Matthew Marciano '14
Rachel Armstrong '14
Ocean County College Ocean County College Vikings 6 7 6 3 6 5 5 6 7 5 4 5 65 Michael Suchernick '13 [1-12]
Danielle Wittman '13 [1-8]
Rayanna Ashworth '14 [9-12]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers DNF 4 7 4 3 4 8 5 8 7 DNS 8 76 Nate Ashton '12
University of Delaware University of Delaware Delaware DNF DSQ 2 7 8 8 4 8 6 8 7 6 82 Devon Gonzalez '15
Benjamin Marinelli '11
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2011 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Delaware669922446699
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons113355771133
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth224466992244
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings335577113355
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions446699224466
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers771133557711
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Stevens557711335577
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Villanova992244669922

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
University of DelawareUniversity of Delaware Delaware771133557711
Drexel UniversityDrexel University Dragons224466992244
Monmouth UniversityMonmouth University Monmouth335577113355
Ocean County CollegeOcean County College Vikings446699224466
Penn State UniversityPenn State University Nittany Lions557711335577
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers992244669922
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Stevens669922446699
Villanova UniversityVillanova University Villanova113355771133

Conditions — 10/01/2011 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 68%  ·  Pressure 1005.8 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 56°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.2 kn
avg  ·  max 7.3 kn
Gusts to 16.3 kn
From WNW (302°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover55% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity68% Pressure1005.8 hPa Rain0.01 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 9 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pennsylvania: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.25 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pennsylvania by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 7 labelled days at Pennsylvania, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →