Dartmouth College '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.50 (fleet 3.46) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 50–61 (45%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 4 | 26–28 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 3 | 24–33 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (72 matches) the record is 31–41 against 33.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.30 | 2.89 | 8–8 | 9.4 | −0.42 | 0.4 | 85% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.31 | 3.16 | 5–2 | 5.2 | −0.15 | 0.0 | 75% |
| 2014-03-22 | 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | skipper | 3.27 | 3.06 | 7–14 | 7.8 | −0.21 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2014-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.35 | 2.84 | 6–4 | 6.8 | −0.51 | 0.3 | 86% |
| 2013-04-06 | Friis & Marchiando Trophies | skipper | 2.75 | 2.93 | 5–13 | 4.5 | +0.18 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 68% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| 79th Boston Dinghy Cup | Skipper | B | 13 | 5.4 | 3.88 |
| 2014 Aaron Szambecki Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Dave Perry Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 4.2 | 3.58 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.0 | 3.17 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 3.5 | 3.65 |
| HWS Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.0 | 3.48 |
| Chris Loder | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.7 | 1.23 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Mystic Lake Team Race Invitational | Skipper | TR | 21 | 62% | — |
| Friis & Marchiando Trophies | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.3 | 2.44 |
| Brian Doyle Open | Crew | A | 4 | 1.0 | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Tufts Central Series 1 | Skipper | B | 18 | 2.9 | 2.35 |
| Lake Champlain Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.5 | 2.49 |
| Central Series | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.2 | 1.21 |
| Barnett Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.3 | 3.63 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
