University of Vermont '14
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.51 (fleet 3.47) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 36–43 (46%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 5 | 21–33 | — |
| Spring 2013 | 2 | 15–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (62 matches) the record is 24–38 against 24.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-04-05 | Fowle New England Team Race Champs | skipper | 3.48 | 2.48 | 2–7 | 3.6 | −1.00 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2014-03-29 | 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | skipper | 3.23 | 3.14 | 6–9 | 6.3 | −0.09 | 0.0 | 67% |
| 2014-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 3.52 | 3.07 | 5–13 | 6.5 | −0.44 | 0.5 | 85% |
| 2014-03-15 | Southern New-England Team Race | skipper | 3.58 | 4.08 | 5–3 | 4.2 | +0.50 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2014-03-01 | Thames River Team Race | skipper | 3.63 | 4.06 | 3–1 | 2.7 | +0.43 | 0.1 | 61% |
| 2013-05-04 | Fowle Trophy | skipper | 3.20 | 4.46 | 3–5 | 1.3 | +1.26 | 1.6 | 12% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 8.1 | 3.31 |
| Thames River Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Southern New-England Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| 33rd Lynne Marchiando Regatta | Skipper | TR | 22 | 46% | — |
| Fowle New England Team Race Champs | Skipper | TR | 11 | 18% | — |
| Coast Guard Bowl/N.E. Dinghy Champs | Skipper | B | 12 | 9.8 | 3.21 |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.6 | 4.55 |
| Fall 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 17 | 8.0 | 3.37 |
| Spring 2013 Team page Season | |||||
| Ted Ferrarone Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 71% | — |
| NEISA Dinghy Champs/CG Alumni Bowl | Skipper | B | 15 | 10.3 | 2.83 |
| Fowle Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 21% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 17 | 7.8 | 3.47 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.3 | 3.48 |
| Spring 2012 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umsted | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.3 | 2.89 |
| New England Dinghy Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.8 | 2.93 |
| 83rd Boston Dinghy Challenge Cup | Skipper | A | 18 | 11.0 | 3.02 |
| Fall 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall Intersectional | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.2 | 3.00 |
| 138th Rudolph Oberg Trophy | Skipper | A | 11 | 7.0 | 3.31 |
| 70th Prof Erwin Schell Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.7 | 3.19 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.8 | 2.98 |
| Harry Anderson | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.9 | 2.80 |
| Danmark Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 13.0 | 2.58 |
| Spring 2011 Team page Season | |||||
| Veitor Trophy | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.7 | 3.01 |
| Thompson Trophy | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.2 | 2.97 |
| Fall 2010 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's Fall | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.0 | 2.20 |
| Penbay Open | Skipper | B | 11 | 5.5 | 2.59 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 10 | 8.1 | 2.16 |
| Freshman Intersectional | Skipper | A | 18 | 9.2 | 2.15 |
| Boston Harbor Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.6 | 2.22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
