Southern 5

HostRhode Island
Date04/08/2017
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
BoatFJ
ScoringCombined

#	School	Team	TOT
1	Tufts University	Jumbos	114
2	University of Rhode Island	Rams 1	142
3	Yale University	Bulldogs	156
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears	178
5	University of Rhode Island	Rams 2	181
6	Brown University	Bears	182
7	University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth	Corsairs	347
8	Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers	355

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	R12	TOT	Sailors
Tufts University	Jumbos A	1	1	1	1	1	3	1	2	5	1	1	1	19	James Beatty '17 Leah Fletcher '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears A	5	4	11	7	5	2	2	5	1	9	2	5	58	Andrew Widmeier '20 Sarah Smith '20
University of Rhode Island	Rams 2 A	4	10	6	2	2	8	3	7	12	2	4	4	64	Christopher Pearson '20 [1-3] Delaney Bamford '20 [4-12] Caroline Rocchio '20 [1-3] Cecilia Schneider '20 [4-12]
University of Rhode Island	Rams 1 A	7	3	4	5	14	5	11	1	3	8	5	2	68	Dakota Northrup '19 [1-3] Garrett Connelly '19 [4-12] Ryan Geib '19 [1-3] Kathryn Nota '19 [4-12]
Brown University	Bears A	9	11	9	3	4	6	5	4	2	6	6	3	68	Zachary Jordan '21 [1-3] Sophie Hibben '19 [4-12] Julia Kim '18 [1-3] Grace Gagnon '18 [4-12]
Yale University	Bulldogs A	3	2	3	8	3	4	7	12	10	5	10	7	74	Dylan Dimarchi '20 [1-3] Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18 [4-12] Kira Woods '19 [1-3] Claire Huebner '18 [4-12]
University of Rhode Island	Rams 1 B	2	5	2	11	8	11	4	3	9	4	7	8	74	Brendan Read '19 [1-3] Kimberly Morecraft '18 [4-12] Lauren Richards '19 [1-3] Ian Nannig '19 [4-12]
Yale University	Bulldogs B	14	8	8	6	9	1	9	8	7	3	3	6	82	Charles Skoda '17 [1-3] Christine Klingler '20 [4-12] Patrick Buehler '18 [1-3] Charles Skoda '17 [4-12]
Tufts University	Jumbos B	6	14	5	4	11	7	6	9	4	12	8	9	95	Julien Guiot '18 Sam Gates '17
Brown University	Bears B	10	6	10	9	7	9	10	10	8	7	DNF	11	114	Rachel Foster '20 Lauren Haller '18
University of Rhode Island	Rams 2 B	12	7	7	12	6	12	12	11	6	10	9	13	117	Matthew Schryver '20 [1-3] Peter Gunn '20 [4-12] Sarah Morin '18 [1-3] Sophie Jackson '20 [4-12]
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Bears B	8	9	13	10	10	10	8	6	11	13	12	10	120	Caelan Juckniess '20 Philip Whittlesey '20
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers A	13	13	12	13	13	13	14	13	13	11	11	12	151	David Rodriguez '17 Catherine Haines '19
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth	Corsairs A	11	12	14	14	12	14	13	14	14	14	13	14	159	Kelsey Delosh '17 Courtney Grippin '17
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth	Corsairs B	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	188	Isabel Rombult '19 Alix Blair '18
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	Buccaneers B	DNF	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	DNS	204	Molly Cormican '18 Megan Laurie '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.080+0.08

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (55 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A	12A
Brown University Bears	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
University of Rhode Island Rams 1	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17
University of Rhode Island Rams 2	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Tufts University Jumbos	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Yale University Bulldogs	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B	12B
Brown University Bears	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
University of Rhode Island Rams 1	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
University of Rhode Island Rams 2	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Tufts University Jumbos	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Yale University Bulldogs	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Brown University	Zachary Jordan '21 [1-3] Sophie Hibben '19 [4-12]	Julia Kim '18 [1-3] Grace Gagnon '18 [4-12]
Bears	Rachel Foster '20	Lauren Haller '18
Massachusetts Maritime Academy	David Rodriguez '17	Catherine Haines '19
Buccaneers	Molly Cormican '18	Megan Laurie '20
Tufts University	James Beatty '17	Leah Fletcher '17
Jumbos	Julien Guiot '18	Sam Gates '17
U. S. Coast Guard Academy	Andrew Widmeier '20	Sarah Smith '20
Bears	Caelan Juckniess '20	Philip Whittlesey '20
University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth	Kelsey Delosh '17	Courtney Grippin '17
Corsairs	Isabel Rombult '19	Alix Blair '18
University of Rhode Island	Dakota Northrup '19 [1-3] Garrett Connelly '19 [4-12]	Ryan Geib '19 [1-3] Kathryn Nota '19 [4-12]
Rams 1	Brendan Read '19 [1-3] Kimberly Morecraft '18 [4-12]	Lauren Richards '19 [1-3] Ian Nannig '19 [4-12]
University of Rhode Island	Christopher Pearson '20 [1-3] Delaney Bamford '20 [4-12]	Caroline Rocchio '20 [1-3] Cecilia Schneider '20 [4-12]
Rams 2	Matthew Schryver '20 [1-3] Peter Gunn '20 [4-12]	Sarah Morin '18 [1-3] Sophie Jackson '20 [4-12]
Yale University	Dylan Dimarchi '20 [1-3] Katharina (Kb) Knapp '18 [4-12]	Kira Woods '19 [1-3] Claire Huebner '18 [4-12]
Bulldogs	Charles Skoda '17 [1-3] Christine Klingler '20 [4-12]	Patrick Buehler '18 [1-3] Charles Skoda '17 [4-12]

Conditions — 04/08/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 44% · Pressure 1006.0 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 50°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 36°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

12.7 kn

avg · max 13.9 kn

Gusts to 30.7 kn

From WNW (301°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover65% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity44% Pressure1006.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 16 kn · SW 11 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Rhode Island: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment −0.03 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.01

Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.06 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rhode Island by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (47 labelled days at Rhode Island).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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