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Mystic Lake Central Series Four

# SchoolTeam TOT
1 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 84
2 Harvard University Harvard University Crimson 89
3 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 114
4 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 121
5 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 133
6 Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 146
7 Boston University Boston University Terriers 162
8 University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies 247
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson A 3 3 1 7 1 11 1 2 29 Juan Perdomo '17
Rebecca Frankel '15
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears B 4 2 8 2 5 5 11 1 38 Alexander Vasiliou '18
Catherine Price '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 A 1 11 4 3 13 6 2 3 43 Alexander Tong '17
Lara Dienemann '18
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears A 2 4 7 5 7 3 8 10 46 Philip Koch '16
Hunter Moeller '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 A 6 6 3 13 2 8 5 4 47 Taylor Nathanson '18
Isabelle Sennett '17
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 A 13 10 5 1 9 1 4 5 48 Colin Meade '16
Katherine Xu '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 B 5 1 2 12 4 10 7 7 48 Nicholas Pfosi '16
Joshua Pfosi '16
Harvard University Harvard University Crimson B 9 9 6 9 3 7 6 11 60 Bennett Capozzi '17
Olivia Kjorlien '17
Boston University Boston University Terriers A 8 13 BKD 8 12 4 3 6 62 Solomon Tarlin '17
Jonathan Dicesare '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 1 B 12 7 9 14 8 2 10 9 71 Pierre Dupont '16
Julia Marshall '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 3 B 11 12 11 4 6 9 9 12 74 Tyler Paige '18
Ryan Epprecht '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 4 A 7 8 10 10 11 13 13 13 85 Ballard Blair '18
Julien Guiot '18
Tufts University Tufts University Jumbos 2 B 10 14 12 6 14 14 14 14 98 Grace Olsen '15
Rachel Hanford '18
Boston University Boston University Terriers B 14 15 14 15 10 12 12 8 100 Stefanie Anderson '18
Andrea Farr '18
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies B 16 5 13 11 DNS DNS DNS DNS 113 Kimberly Jackman '16
Elizabeth Rawlinson '15
University of Connecticut University of Connecticut Huskies A 15 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 134 Khalil Rahman '15
Dylan Dellibovi '16
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.180+0.18
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2012 (13 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers777722222222
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears222222225555
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies191919199999
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson55551111
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1111110101010
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21010101014141414
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 31414141417171717
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 41717171719191919

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Boston UniversityBoston University Terriers999924242424
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears242424246666
University of ConnecticutUniversity of Connecticut Huskies202020207777
Harvard UniversityHarvard University Crimson66662222
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 1222212121212
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 21212121215151515
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 31515151518181818
Tufts UniversityTufts University Jumbos 41818181820202020

Conditions — 10/05/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1007.2 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 50°F
Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.2 kn
avg  ·  max 10.3 kn
Gusts to 22.2 kn
From W (268°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1007.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 12 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tufts: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.04
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.36 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tufts by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (60 labelled days at Tufts).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →