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Bowdoin Mid Week Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 6 11 11
2 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 14 14
3 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 19 19
4 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 23 23
5 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 23 23
6 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 1 27 27
7 Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 30 30
8 Bates College Bates College Bobcats 2 37 37
9 University of New England University of New England Nor'Easters 1 45 45
10 University of New England University of New England Nor'Easters 2 46 46
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 6 2 1 2 4 2 11 Michael Kann '19
Caitlin Tardio '19
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 1 6 1 3 3 14 Alexander Vasiliou '18
Jake Griffin '18
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 3 3 4 2 7 19 Emily Gonzalez '20
Kevin Elk '20
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 4 7 3 8 1 23 Emmett Ulian '19
Hannah Konkel '20
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 6 5 5 1 6 23 Marie Bergsund '20
Martinique Ogle '18
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 1 7 2 6 7 5 27 Amy Macdonald '18
Ella Westerfield '20
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 5 4 7 5 9 30 Eric Hall '20 [1-3]
Peter Newstein '19 [4-5]
Peter Newstein '19 [1-2]
Nicholas Sarni '20 [3-5]
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 2 10 9 8 6 4 37 Chris Dsida '18
Anne Trapp '20
University of New England University of New England Nor'Easters 1 9 10 9 9 8 45 John Ripoli '18
Morgan Lindback '17
University of New England University of New England Nor'Easters 2 8 8 10 10 10 46 Brogan Hurst '19
Holly Zeldenrust '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (16 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats 111111
Bates CollegeBates College Bobcats 222222
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 133333
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 244444
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 355555
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 466666
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 577777
Bowdoin CollegeBowdoin College Polar Bears 688888
University of New EnglandUniversity of New England Nor'Easters 199999
University of New EnglandUniversity of New England Nor'Easters 21010101010
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 1 Amy Macdonald '18 Ella Westerfield '20
Bates College Bates College Bobcats 2 Chris Dsida '18 Anne Trapp '20
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 1 Alexander Vasiliou '18 Jake Griffin '18
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 2 Emmett Ulian '19 Hannah Konkel '20
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 3 Marie Bergsund '20 Martinique Ogle '18
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 4 Eric Hall '20 [1-3]
Peter Newstein '19 [4-5]		 Peter Newstein '19 [1-2]
Nicholas Sarni '20 [3-5]
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 5 Emily Gonzalez '20 Kevin Elk '20
Bowdoin College Bowdoin College Polar Bears 6 Michael Kann '19 Caitlin Tardio '19
University of New England University of New England Nor'Easters 1 John Ripoli '18 Morgan Lindback '17
University of New England University of New England Nor'Easters 2 Brogan Hurst '19 Holly Zeldenrust '19

Conditions — 09/21/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 54%  ·  Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 76°F   ↓ 66°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
5.5 kn
avg  ·  max 6.2 kn
Gusts to 15.7 kn
From WNW (284°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover31% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1019.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Bowdoin: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.08 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.15 ± 0.22)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Bowdoin by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (33 labelled days at Bowdoin).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →